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      10-06-2016, 10:22 AM   #1
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i3 Leasing Residual Values vs Market Values

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As an i3 owner with 20 months left on my lease, I'm wondering what is going to happen to all these i3's at the end of 30-36 months leases? The residual on my car is near $36K, but I'm guessing it will be worth no more than $20K or less at lease end.

Is BMWFS just going to take a huge hit on all these leased i3's, or what?

It seems like they should offer an incentive to get people to keep them at lease end? New battery, perhaps? So far, from reading the forums, it looks like no incentives are being offered at lease end.
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      10-06-2016, 02:54 PM   #2
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We've had several come back from lease end. They've been on the CPO lot for about $28k and i see them go for as low as $22k...

BMW FS definitely is losing money on these imho....
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      10-06-2016, 02:57 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EINSER M View Post
We've had several come back from lease end. They've been on the CPO lot for about $28k and i see them go for as low as $22k...

BMW FS definitely is losing money on these imho....
Interesting. I guess if I want to keep my car past lease end, I should turn it in to the dealer, and then buy it back at a greatly reduced rate.
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      10-06-2016, 03:16 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The J-Man
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Originally Posted by EINSER M View Post
We've had several come back from lease end. They've been on the CPO lot for about $28k and i see them go for as low as $22k...

BMW FS definitely is losing money on these imho....
Interesting. I guess if I want to keep my car past lease end, I should turn it in to the dealer, and then buy it back at a greatly reduced rate.
And it will have CPO certification!!!!
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      10-06-2016, 03:18 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The J-Man
Quote:
Originally Posted by EINSER M View Post
We've had several come back from lease end. They've been on the CPO lot for about $28k and i see them go for as low as $22k...

BMW FS definitely is losing money on these imho....
Interesting. I guess if I want to keep my car past lease end, I should turn it in to the dealer, and then buy it back at a greatly reduced rate.
Yep I talked to my dealer, did a 3 year and at turn in I'd have a remainder of 27k dollars and he said they would buy it back and certify it and I'd be looking at probably 17 to 19k maybe even less depending how sales of the smaller battery go.

He said BMW have special discount set aside for the cars that don't sell.

So very excited indeed.

That would make my 55k dollar i3 the price of a Mini Cooper!!!!!!
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      10-07-2016, 12:58 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The J-Man View Post
Is BMWFS just going to take a huge hit on all these leased i3's, or what?
Yes, a lot.

I went through a hypothetical lease buy-out/trade deal on a Tesla a few months ago, and with 9 months to go on the lease at that time, it would have cost me $12K to buy the car out at residual value vs. used market (Carmax) value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The J-Man View Post
Interesting. I guess if I want to keep my car past lease end, I should turn it in to the dealer, and then buy it back at a greatly reduced rate.
You could do that, or just grab a newer and longer range gen2 i3, and let BMW subsidize you for another 2-3 years.

With the battery range increasing rapidly (2x every 1-2 years?), buying a used i3 with 18.8KWh battery is unlikely to be financially attractive. Just because the $50K car depreciated to low $2*K in 2 years (on BMW FS's dime), doesn't mean it wont depreciate down to $5-10K in another 2 years (on your dime this time!)

I would not buy an EV right now, in the midst of technological revolution.

Leasing - why not.
But buying - not unless you know a museum that needs automotive exhibits...

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      10-07-2016, 01:27 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by afadeev View Post
Yes, a lot.

I went through a hypothetical lease buy-out/trade deal on a Tesla a few months ago, and with 9 months to go on the least at that time, it would have cost me $12K to buy the car out at residual value vs. used market (Carmax) value.



You could do that, or just grab a newer and longer range gen2 i3, and let BMW subsidize you for another 2-3 years.

With the battery range increasing rapidly (2x every 1-2 years?), buying a used i3 with 18.8KWh battery is unlikely to be financially attractive. Just because the $50K car depreciated to low $20K in 2 years (on BMW FS's dime), doesn't mean it wont depreciate down to $5-10K in another 2 years (on your dime this time!)

I would not buy an EV right now, in the midst of technological revolution.

Leasing - why not.
But buying - not unless you know a museum that needs automotive exhibits...

a
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      10-09-2016, 08:00 AM   #8
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All that's fine, but I buy a house to live in and a car to drive. Not concerned about depreciation and all that crap, any ...... Well most cars will depreciate with time and mileage so that comes with the territory. I bought mine with plans to dive it for over 20 years so my reason for buying is different than many as I'm not planning to trade it in for the next new model.

The reason for buying an electric car in general is to save me from all the added maintenance that comes with age and mileage that plagues older cars.

So their you go, happy I bought mine and all the depreciation and government help just made it that much sweeter and less expensive.

I for one love the fact that it depreciated like a rock in water! I was ok paying 55k for it as I think it's worth it. The fact the car will only cost me in the higher 20's is amazing and would do it again in a heart beat.

In fact with its current depreciation free fall I'm looking at buying another for my wife and just keeping our x5 in storage till we need a car for longer trips.

I'm
Lucky as where I live we never needed more range than what the i3 offers so even the newer battery is overkill and feel bad as the x5 collects dust now.

Even then my dealer will give me a car for a week or so if I need one for a trip so it's a great win win in my opinion.
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      10-10-2016, 01:35 PM   #9
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Used i3?

I've seen i3 BEV at dealerships for about 21k.
Buying a used i3, is that a good idea?
How much more quickly will it depreciate?

I'd love for them to announce a battery upgrade.
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      10-10-2016, 01:44 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetsurgn
I've seen i3 BEV at dealerships for about 21k.
Buying a used i3, is that a good idea?
How much more quickly will it depreciate?

I'd love for them to announce a battery upgrade.
Well they will depreciate further but it really comes down to do you want to drive it now?

Early adopters will always pay more for the luxury of being the first, the depreciation biggest hit has already past. So talk them down to 19k, it's got no moving parts so the engine is as good as the day you bought it, no worries of oil changes and if the past owner did them on a timely manner.

At that price it's a hell of a car to have.

In two more years they will be even lower but their is a point where it bottoms out and the curve is settling out for now.

My dealer that is getting used ones back seem to sell them fairly quickly off the lot where the new ones sit for longer but the new battery ones do move. They won't be ordering any of the smaller batteries unless the customer wants that one and leaves a deposit.
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      10-20-2016, 04:19 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by afadeev View Post
You could do that, or just grab a newer and longer range gen2 i3, and let BMW subsidize you for another 2-3 years.
The trade offs are a little fuzzy in CA where early guys got HOV stickers and state rebate offers. Both those are gone for REx models. If the only difference I'm getting is range I don't think thats enough for me to trade in for a new one. Thinking I would rather re-buy my lease. I had a 2nd gen Prius back in 05 with HOV stickers and sold the car after 2.5years and 75,000 miles for only $4,000 less than I paid new. Those stickers were worth about 5K at the time since they were long gone. I'm wondering if we're seeing a similar price bump due to Green HOV stickers this time around. I believe the white ones are still available so I'd have to get a BEv if getting a new i3.
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      10-20-2016, 05:32 PM   #12
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Not sure if I understand your post, but CA just released more green stickers since September. As far as I understand, i3 REx qualifies for green.
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      10-24-2016, 07:32 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by 2sak2furious View Post
Not sure if I understand your post, but CA just released more green stickers since September. As far as I understand, i3 REx qualifies for green.
Didn't know that. That's cool. If they still have some when my lease is up I might as well upgrade to a 2017 model then.
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      11-05-2016, 12:50 PM   #14
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I know this sounds shiesty but why not peel off your green stickers and re-apply on your next i3 REx. Its just bureaucratic BS anyways and your new REx is a positive impact for the environment, which in reality, is in line with the spirit of the green stickers.
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      11-06-2016, 02:46 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetsurgn View Post
I've seen i3 BEV at dealerships for about 21k.
Buying a used i3, is that a good idea?
Given that the new i3's with larger batteries are out, all gen1's have just become that much less valuable.
As soon as Bolt and Model 3 hit the market (2017), all gen2 i3's will take another depreciation hit (who wants a ~120 mile EV when you can get a 200+ mile EV for less!!)?

Remember, the second an EV leaves the dealer lot, it not only depreciates by the traditional new->used car ~20% drop, but also the $7.5K Federal subsidy!

Now add battery technology and range obsolescence, and you are in the world of massive depreciation hurt with no end in sight!

Quote:
Originally Posted by jetsurgn View Post
How much more quickly will it depreciate?
If it went from $45+K to $21K in 2 years, it can easily drive to $10K in another couple of years.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jetsurgn View Post
I'd love for them to announce a battery upgrade.
It will not happen, as the cost (parts + labor) will be roughly equivalent to the value of a used post-lease i3.

My REX was leased for $36K with an MSRP of $47+K. This July it was appraised at $16-17K.
By the time the 24 month lease ends next spring, it will likely have a market value in low teens.

Do you want to catch that falling knife?

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      11-06-2016, 03:18 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -c- View Post
All that's fine, but I buy a house to live in and a car to drive. Not concerned about depreciation and all that crap, any ......
Most people, indeed, think like that.

Some can either afford to write-off a 5-/6-/7-digit depreciation hits with a smile on their face, or ... try not to think about it, and accept it as inevitable.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with doing financial analysis on a house and a car purchase.
I have numerous friends who ran the #s and decided to rent instead of buying a house or apartment in Manhattan or the Bay area 5-8-years ago (most bought recently). It made perfectly good sense at that time based on relative cost of buy vs. rent.

Similarly, depreciation projections are a valid consideration in car buying.
Unless you are loaded and can afford to not to give a @#$%.


Quote:
Originally Posted by -c- View Post
I bought mine with plans to dive it for over 20 years so my reason for buying is different than many as I'm not planning to trade it in for the next new model.

The reason for buying an electric car in general is to save me from all the added maintenance that comes with age and mileage that plagues older cars.
This comment prompted me to think back to the oldest car I ever owned - a used college beater VW Scirocco. The body did rust a bit, but that was not the reason I gave up on it (sold for $50 to a shop). The car's brakes and AC system had rusted beyond repair. The latter was an inconvenience during summers, the former - a real threat to safety. Three separate mechanics had refused to touch the breaks unless I was willing to pony up for new calipers, brake lines, and master cylinder. I forgot what the quote was, but it was multiple times the value of that car.

Based on my experience with multiple suspension problems on the i3 (unrelated to REX), I would not be surprised if a similar fate befalls it long before the CF/plastic body shows signs of age.

My 2nd and 3rd oldest cars kicked the bucket due to minor accidents that were too costly to repair relative to the value of those cars. One, a 10-year old BMW E30, was rear-ended by a distracted driver who didn't see the train of cars stopped ahead of him. The $6K in repair estimates totaled that car.

That's the problem with older vehicles. Unless you insure them to some high "stated value" and pay extra premiums for that, they are sitting ducks to insurance totaling them well before you thought you were done with them.

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      11-07-2016, 08:07 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afadeev View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by -c- View Post
All that's fine, but I buy a house to live in and a car to drive. Not concerned about depreciation and all that crap, any ......
Most people, indeed, think like that.

Some can either afford to write-off a 5-/6-/7-digit depreciation hits with a smile on their face, or ... try not to think about it, and accept it as inevitable.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with doing financial analysis on a house and a car purchase.
I have numerous friends who ran the #s and decided to rent instead of buying a house or apartment in Manhattan or the Bay area 5-8-years ago (most bought recently). It made perfectly good sense at that time based on relative cost of buy vs. rent.

Similarly, depreciation projections are a valid consideration in car buying.
Unless you are loaded and can afford to not to give a @#$%.


Quote:
Originally Posted by -c- View Post
I bought mine with plans to dive it for over 20 years so my reason for buying is different than many as I'm not planning to trade it in for the next new model.

The reason for buying an electric car in general is to save me from all the added maintenance that comes with age and mileage that plagues older cars.
This comment prompted me to think back to the oldest car I ever owned - a used college beater VW Scirocco. The body did rust a bit, but that was not the reason I gave up on it (sold for $50 to a shop). The car's brakes and AC system had rusted beyond repair. The latter was an inconvenience during summers, the former - a real threat to safety. Three separate mechanics had refused to touch the breaks unless I was willing to pony up for new calipers, brake lines, and master cylinder. I forgot what the quote was, but it was multiple times the value of that car.

Based on my experience with multiple suspension problems on the i3 (unrelated to REX), I would not be surprised if a similar fate befalls it long before the CF/plastic body shows signs of age.

My 2nd and 3rd oldest cars kicked the bucket due to minor accidents that were too costly to repair relative to the value of those cars. One, a 10-year old BMW E30, was rear-ended by a distracted driver who didn't see the train of cars stopped ahead of him. The $6K in repair estimates totaled that car.

That's the problem with older vehicles. Unless you insure them to some high "stated value" and pay extra premiums for that, they are sitting ducks to insurance totaling them well before you thought you were done with them.

a
I think I was having a bad day that day.

I'm a bit OCD on my cars and do all the work since I love doing it. And I buy them new so no bad owners in the past to help their eventual demise along The materials of the i3 will last and the parts when braking down will be fixed, the way I see it it will always be cheaper in the long run to keep it on the road rather than buying another 40 to 50k dollar car.

The engine and trans alone are under 2k for both. Yea the batteries are expensive but even they will or at least supposed to last over 20 years. Who knows what the salvage price will be on wrecked models if they even would salvage batteries. My 02 Mini Cooper has over 200,000 miles and still looks new. It's all in how you treat them and getting a good one. Never had suspension issues with the i3 but I also stayed away from the REX as it comes with all the maintenance issues that a normal car would have plus some.

So this December will be my full 2 years with the car and now have over 20k miles on it and it's never given me an issue other than a button stopped working, only BMW I've ever owned that hasn't been to the dealer for a mechanical issue. When you think about it we where driving a first gen model and given the lack of issues I think are fantastic. Shoot even teslas now at the bottom of the barrel on consumer reports after being awarded the best car they ever rated, so I just figure I enjoy what I have and deal with the issues even after the car is worth a hill of beans.

The materials in new cars today are so far ahead where cars where 20 years ago even that they will last way into the future. Thank competition and technology manufacturing advances for that. Plus the drive for better quality parts in general.

My X5 is paid off and probably runs me around 3k a year to maintain sometimes less sometimes more but it's cheaper than buying a new one.

I'm 37 now and 13 years from retirement so I'm placing my bets that the i3 will last much longer than that, and when your retired you don't drive even close to what you would having a day job.


So in all their was a good reason I bought it and because I don't have to worry about all the complexity that comes with an ICE I think we will be good. Shoot theirs cars older than me running around and their still going so where theirs a will theirs a way.

And accidents yea can't fix that but otherwise it should continue to work for many many years.

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      01-13-2017, 08:36 AM   #18
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I just purchased a CPO 2014 i3 Rex.

I spent the last couple of months researching available cars located in So Cal, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. My search focused on low miles, Rex with Tech Package.

The asking price ranged from $23k to $29k.
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      01-13-2017, 11:42 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lorinzo View Post
I just purchased a CPO 2014 i3 Rex.

I spent the last couple of months researching available cars located in So Cal, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. My search focused on low miles, Rex with Tech Package.

The asking price ranged from $23k to $29k.
Very interesting. Was checking for battery health part of your shopping process? (Using the BC hidden menu)
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      01-19-2017, 09:37 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by remlemasi View Post
Very interesting. Was checking for battery health part of your shopping process? (Using the BC hidden menu)
Did not know about this.
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      01-21-2017, 09:59 AM   #21
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Yes I would say give it back at the end of the lease and then buy it back if you want a great deal.. the CPO is worth it enough especially when you get another 2 years 50,000 miles on top of what's left...
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      01-21-2017, 11:02 PM   #22
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This is what I've be saying for 18 months. People will be horribly burnt with the i3 resale. The way forward if you would still like a battery car is buy with a combined full gas engine up front as well. This way you have the best of both worlds and this is the BMW I purchased in the end. My gas saving is running at 50% in 7 months with a saving $540.00. The car will not drop in value as much as the i3 or i8. Doesn't BMW care about the people who are going to be burnt with their hard earned money as they will never return. Is this why i3 sales are down 45% and the i8 80% down on sales for the year.
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