[NomoTesla]

Originally Posted by Bimmerfun82

Most of the shareholders hate him now, so he relocated the incorporation to a conservative state and still can’t get the package approved. It’s an insane payout even in the form of equity.

One of the items up for vote was whether or not to re-incorporate the company in Texas. I voted NO to that as well. I also voted NO to every single proposal where the board recommended a yes vote. The Board is the biggest problem as they should have replaced Musk years ago. He is the single biggest impediment to the company's success. He has benefited from the cult of personality, but he's a piss poor manager who can't make a quality car to save himself. Because he doesn't know how. He surrounds himself with yes-people and not those who know how to actually make cars. Because of his total ignorance of vehicle manufacturing he has to reinvent the process at every turn instead of using tried and true methods that have been proven for decades.

Drew Baglino, a 15+ year veteran of the company, resigned and cashed out his stock. You don't do that if you think the ship is heading in the right direction. You do that when you realize the captain is playing bingo while the ship is sinking.

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by NomoTesla

The Board is the biggest problem as they should have replaced Musk years ago.

The board is a huge problem. Totally inept.

I posted the p/e comps. Even if Tesla were to grow again and double revenues I don’t think they have the staying power of Toyota or BMW.

Ford 12
GM 5
VW 5
Toyota 9
BMW 6
Tesla 45

[Windshieldfarmer]

Based on Tesla’s high PE, declining margins, and decreasing market share, perhaps the time has arrived to purchase a few well placed Put options…. Could be an interesting way to fund your next IX purchase…if you truly believe Tesla is circling the drain. There is a lot of Tesla hate in this board…just wondering if this is something some are doing.

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by Windshieldfarmer

Based on Tesla’s high PE, declining margins, and decreasing market share, perhaps the time has arrived to purchase a few well placed Put options…. Could be an interesting way to fund your next IX purchase…if you truly believe Tesla is circling the drain. There is a lot of Tesla hate in this board…just wondering if this is something some are doing.

I don’t do puts or calls. But if you look at the chart, we’ve already seen a 30% reduction this year. And GameStop just squeezed again, so who knows? I didn’t understand Tesla’s valuation when it was at $200B, much less $560B, and yet I made 70% in one year on the stock. Q2 earnings will be really interesting. At this point I’m on the sidelines. I don’t mind if it goes up or down… but I’m not an investor any longer.

Theoretically if/when his pay package is approved the value of those options - if not issued already - will dilute the share price about 8-10%. Not sure about that. But he has the right to call those 304 million options at current price. There’s a cost basis of $23/sh. Accounting for the cost it’s about $46B at todays share price.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge-...ge-2024-01-30/

[ggalanis]

Originally Posted by Windshieldfarmer

Based on Tesla’s high PE, declining margins, and decreasing market share, perhaps the time has arrived to purchase a few well placed Put options…. Could be an interesting way to fund your next IX purchase…if you truly believe Tesla is circling the drain. There is a lot of Tesla hate in this board…just wondering if this is something some are doing.

I'll guess that I am one of those people you likely consider as a tesla hater... I am not invested in any car company. Doesn't affect me in any way when any car company stock goes up or down.

What you call Tesla "hate" is comments by people who are judging Tesla/Elon objectively; judging them based on their actions/decisions/facts rather than their empty promises and potential for stock price inflation. If BMW starts doing the same, I would criticize them the same way.

[Windshieldfarmer]

Originally Posted by ggalanis

I'll guess that I am one of those people you likely consider as a tesla hater... I am not invested in any car company. Doesn't affect me in any way when any car company stock goes up or down.

What you call Tesla "hate" is comments by people who are judging Tesla/Elon objectively; judging them based on their actions/decisions/facts rather than their empty promises and potential for stock price inflation. If BMW starts doing the same, I would criticize them the same way.

Not arguing your perspective or your objectivity…but do you feel strongly enough that the company is in a state of decline that you would persue a financial position that would benefit from the continued decline of the company?

[sor]

The problem is that the stock market often makes no sense. Company makes record profit with rosy guidance and stock goes down. Company sells vaporware and earns less than competitors, stock goes up. Additionally often when a position is super obvious and everyone takes it, it can have the opposite effect (see GameStop).

I generally invest for long term steady gains rather than gambling on what seems sensible in the moment. Occasionally I’ll take a small position that has a potential for a big payout but not a big enough position that it means anything if it falls apart.

[darylp310]

Originally Posted by Windshieldfarmer

Not arguing your perspective or your objectivity…but do you feel strongly enough that the company is in a state of decline that you would persue a financial position that would benefit from the continued decline of the company?

Normally, it would make sense to short $TSLA. But as you know, the stock price doesn't behave like a normal company. It's more like a meme stock, where many fans use long options to bid up the price quickly.

Not investment advice: but after a couple of quarters of poor results, I suspect that 2025 will be the year where $TSLA stock falls down to normal P/E levels to match BMW and Toyota (who both make way more money and sell more cars than Tesla BTW).

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by darylp310

Normally, it would make sense to short $TSLA. But as you know, the stock price doesn't behave like a normal company. It's more like a meme stock, where many fans use long options to bid up the price quickly.

Not investment advice: but after a couple of quarters of poor results, I suspect that 2025 will be the year where $TSLA stock falls down to normal P/E levels to match BMW and Toyota (who both make way more money and sell more cars than Tesla BTW).

If I did my math right, at 10 TTM P/E the price per share would be $40. Alternatively if TTM earnings drop in half and the market keeps the 45 P/E that’s a share price of 50% of what it is now or $88.

I believe the market has priced in the sales and margin declines already. That said, if the growth on the “other” line and the energy line of their revenues falters, and if they can’t get expenses in line to increase earnings, and if they don’t plan on a higher volume car at a lower price point, and if BEV adoption continues to drop, and if carbon credits demand drops … then it’s conceivable to see further declines.

The market has some expectation of growth from energy and FSD and robotics and robotaxi and other sources that make a comp to a traditional automaker only part of the story.

On the flip side Cathy Wood has a $2000 share price target. I think she’s crazy.

[NomoTesla]

Apple cracked open the smartphone market as we know it today. Apple has not been the marketshare leader in smartphones for many years, yet it rakes in the lion's share of profits from the sector with a nearly 50% operating margin. In addition to having one of the tightest and most resilient supply chains in the world, Apple positions its products as high quality for which customers are happy to pay a premium (i.e., all profit to the company).

Tesla's supply chain is a mess. Their operating margin is under 18%. Instead of focusing on making Tesla strong, their CEO rages on Twitter against those less fortunate and engages in endless pissing contests with others. Elon is a deeply troubled, mentally disturbed individual who should not be anywhere near a CEO's desk. It took a legal action by the SEC to bar Elon from serving as Chairman of the Board.

Elon never once engaged a real focus group to find out what his customers want. He goes by what KoolAid drinkers on Twitter want. And what he thinks is "cool". Maybe, just maybe, if he gave customers features they actually want and can use, his cars might be more popular and Tesla would not have to deal with the kind of nonsense it's dealing with.

Removing stalks, moving the horn from the center of the wheel to a button, forcing people to interact with the vehicle using just a single touchscreen out of cost-cutting necessities (not "minimalism" as the Muskbros want us to believe) are all BS moves driven by an insecure individual who doesn't know the first thing about operating a publicly traded company.

Take a look at the cars Tesla is making. They all reflect Elon's brain not ours. They reflect what he likes, not what I want. In order for me to enjoy driving a Tesla vehicle I must contort my wants and needs into a balloon animal in the shape of Elon Musk. I need to cast away the old and bring in the new, whether I want to or not. I have no other choices. His cars are extremely polarizing.

For example, there is no Tesla that suits anyone in my family. My father is shopping for a new car at the age of 87. He's as alert and fit as ever. One would think that Tesla's incredible FSD/Autopilot technology juggernaut would be an obvious choice, but he cannot consider Tesla. With their 500 cameras Tesla cannot figure out how to do a simple 3D view that others have had for YEARS. My dad wants to see all around the car. He doesn't want the car to park itself or drive itself, he just wants to SEE. Tesla wants you to feel like a passenger in your own car even if you're the driver.

My sister couldn't buy a Tesla because she hated having a single, central screen where she would have to look away from the road to interact with. BMW at least has an iDrive wheel so I can do some basic navigation and selection without having to reach across with my entire body to hit a button on a touchscreen, arguably much more distracting than turning a knob.

I couldn't buy a Tesla because, after 9 years of owning one, I was tired of experiencing death by a thousand cuts. I test drove the new Y and 3 at the time. Total garbage cars. They felt like go carts with no sound insulation. I couldn't believe the front/rear gaps in the glass roof that were unsealed. I test drove a new Model S at the time. The AC compressor vibrated so badly the entire steering column shook. The Tesla employee who rode along during the test drive said "oh that's normal". To which I said "great, no thanks" and ended the test drive. After seeing the latest Cybertruck teardown exposing all sorts of leaks and poor design choices, it's obvious Tesla hasn't learned anything in the last 10 years that matters.

Tesla is facing a perfect storm right now of reduced demand industry-wide due to interest rates, Elon's mouth negatively impacting brand perception, highly competent and well executed competition that puts Elon's design and engineering choices to shame, and prior customers like myself who will never, ever buy another Tesla again. With no PR department Tesla has no counter to the vastly negative narrative out there that is quickly eating away at all the gains Tesla made in the last 10 years.

[FultonMDUSA]

Here’s a contrary perspective.

Stopping the expansion of the Supercharger network will contribute to increasing Tesla’s profitability. New sites are very expensive to build out, and virtually all of the potential high demand locations already have Superchargers. Building new Superchargers in locations that will only see occasional use brings down the profitability of the entire network. Stopping expansions means the existing locations will see more traffic and more profitability per site.

Let all of the competitors build new sites at all of the remaining unprofitable locations. Tesla will keep and maintain the existing high volume, high profit locations, even if it means customers have to wait a bit in line.

I’m reminded of a story I recall about the Japanese Shinkansen (bullet train) system. When it was originally built out between (I think) Tokyo and Osaka, it was fantastically profitable, with full trains and departures every few minutes. People thought it was great, and they decided to expand it all over the country, even to very rural areas. Well, those additional lines did increase ridership of the entire system, but at the cost of the profitability of the entire system.

[ggalanis]

Originally Posted by FultonMDUSA

Here’s a contrary perspective.

Stopping the expansion of the Supercharger network will contribute to increasing Tesla’s profitability. New sites are very expensive to build out, and virtually all of the potential high demand locations already have Superchargers. Building new Superchargers in locations that will only see occasional use brings down the profitability of the entire network. Stopping expansions means the existing locations will see more traffic and more profitability per site.

Let all of the competitors build new sites at all of the remaining unprofitable locations. Tesla will keep and maintain the existing high volume, high profit locations, even if it means customers have to wait a bit in line.

This story adds some context....


https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...ff-2024-05-15/


Sounds to me like rash decision made by a man baby rather than the 3D chess move some like to think it was. The baby wanted deep cuts and when the leader of the charging team didn't go as "hardcore" as he wanted, likely because unlike him, she knew how detrimental it would be, he decided to get rid of all of them instead.

My favorite part of the article is this part which explains (at least in part) why their charging team did so good overall. (Bold added for emphasis)

"Tinucci was one of few high-ranking female Tesla executives. She recently started reporting directly to Musk, following the departure of battery-and-energy chief Drew Baglino, according to four former Supercharger-team staffers. They said Baglino had historically overseen the charging department without much involvement from Musk."

[Pictor]

Originally Posted by FultonMDUSA

Here’s a contrary perspective.

Stopping the expansion of the Supercharger network will contribute to increasing Tesla’s profitability. New sites are very expensive to build out, and virtually all of the potential high demand locations already have Superchargers.

That might hold water if there wasn't pending deals with all other manufacturers to switch to the J3400 plug. Suddenly you have Fords, and Rivians, and presumably others taking up two spaces and reducing capacity for growth. This seems like self inflicted wound from a double barrel shotgun to each foot.

It will be terrible for the industry but I feel like the "punch in the nose" here would be for other manufactures to delay or pull back on their plans for J3400 because of this irrational move. I would assume there are discussions between the companies around their intention but given the propensity for public messaging to come in the form or 140 character announcements I assume everyone is mostly in the dark while the offer letters go out to the former team.

[FultonMDUSA]

Originally Posted by ggalanis

This story adds some context....


https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...ff-2024-05-15/


Sounds to me like rash decision made by a man baby rather than the 3D chess move some like to think it was. The baby wanted deep cuts and when the leader of the charging team didn't go as "hardcore" as he wanted, likely because unlike him, she knew how detrimental it would be, he decided to get rid of all of them instead.

My favorite part of the article is this part which explains (at least in part) why their charging team did so good overall. (Bold added for emphasis)

"Tinucci was one of few high-ranking female Tesla executives. She recently started reporting directly to Musk, following the departure of battery-and-energy chief Drew Baglino, according to four former Supercharger-team staffers. They said Baglino had historically overseen the charging department without much involvement from Musk."

I offer that if leadership's strategic vision is profitability, and your management's vision is expansion, firing your team may be the best course you can take. Lack of profitability can threaten your very existence.

To expand on my Japanese bullet train example, we have 3 profitable passenger train lines here in the U.S. - Northeast Regional, Acela, and that Auto Train to Florida. Every other line loses money, and the existence of Amtrak is threatened by Congress every single year.

[FultonMDUSA]

Originally Posted by Pictor

That might hold water if there wasn't pending deals with all other manufacturers to switch to the J3400 plug. Suddenly you have Fords, and Rivians, and presumably others taking up two spaces and reducing capacity for growth. This seems like self inflicted wound from a double barrel shotgun to each foot.

It will be terrible for the industry but I feel like the "punch in the nose" here would be for other manufactures to delay or pull back on their plans for J3400 because of this irrational move. I would assume there are discussions between the companies around their intention but given the propensity for public messaging to come in the form or 140 character announcements I assume everyone is mostly in the dark while the offer letters go out to the former team.

I offer that it's the other manufacturers that are probably in panic mode because they thought they could solve their customer charging problem by relying on Tesla making the big financial (and money losing) investments. Now that Tesla has bowed out, the problem has been stuck back to them.

Apple doesn't make more than every other phone manufacturer combined by competing in every market. It does so by dominating in the most profitable markets. Expand that concept to EV charging and you'll realize there are highly profitable locations, and locations that will never be profitable that you should let your competitors grab.

You might have the best and most experienced and efficient EV charger deployment team in the world, but if they are building new sites in unprofitable locations that will drag down your financials for years or even take your company down, then firing them might be the smartest thing you can do.

Of course, none of this is good for me as an EV owner. I'm just offering a possible alternate viewpoint.

[Windshieldfarmer]

IF the Reuters article is accurate (we don’t know since nobody is interviewed was actually in the room when Elon made his firing decision), it would be incredibly disturbing at so many levels. Ive been in leadership positions most of my career…this NOT how you treat people…EVER. For years I admired Elon’s intellect but successful companies require stable leadership, something Elon is incapable of providing.

Elon has massively overworked himself for years and I suspect we are seeing the reactions of someone who is now mentally spiraling out of control. The body can only handle so much stress and drug abuse. Not only should the shareholders refuse his bonus, they should pressure the board to expedite a search for a new CEO. If Tesla tanks, EV transition in the US will be delayed for several years. This affects all of us unfortunately.