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      02-27-2020, 04:54 PM   #3330
GrussGott
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
And I think this is the main downfall of EV's. It's just not all here yet. With transistor manufacturing processes nearing the limits of silicon, and the limited experience / tech we currently have in batteries, all the current EV's are just proving grounds. We have a long ways to go before any ICE will be replaced by an EV.
with you on the first part, the second part ... not so much. We're already at 2% ICE replaced and increasing exponentially (e.g., 2000% growth in 8 years) - that's a pretty standard new technology adoption curve/timeline (note: tech adoption isn't intuitive because the growth is nonlinear - you have to map it to see it).

ICE replacement has already started and, based on history, ICE replacement will only accelerate from here. The "BEV-tech must be perfected before adoption" theory won't bear out me thinks. For example:
"[horses are not only] self-feeding, self-controlling, self-maintaining and self-reproducing, but they are far more economical in the energy they are able to develop from a given weight of fuel material, than any other existing form of motor." -- Robert Thurston, US steam engine expert, 1894
Sounds like the BEV vs ICE energy density arguments, huh? or
The notion that electric vehicles, or vehicles of any other kind, will be able to compete with railroad trains for long-distance traffic is visionary to the point of lunacy. The fool who hatched out this latest motor canard was conscience-stricken enough to add that the whole matter was still in an exceedingly hazy state. But,if it ever emerges from the nebulous state,it will be in a world where natural laws are all turned topsy-turvy, and time and space are no more. Were it not for the surprising persistence of this delusion, the yarn would not be worthy of notice. --- E.P. Ingersoll, transportation reporter, 1899
Sounds like the BEVs-suck! guys, huh? 30 years later, gasoline automobiles didn't live up to their promises: they were dangerous and dirty, they broke down, it was hard to find fuel, the roads weren't built for them, etc etc etc - Compared to horses, gasoline automobiles made no sense! but sales were exponentially growing

ICE-tech wasn't ready to replace the reliable horse ... but it did anyway, and it did it fast. In short, we're in an energy technology transition whether we're ready for it or not, whether we like it or not, whether the tech is ready or not, and you'll either invest in it now, or regret that you didn't later.

Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
GG....have you added to your TSLA position given the declines this week?
I've never had a TSLA position and never will! Tesla is not an investor's stock, it's a trader's stock, and that's not me ... I just enjoy business & product analysis and all the culture warriors here are getting Tesla so so SO wrong. They think BEVs are about Elon or global warming or whatever. So so so wrong.

We're in a global energy-tech arms race, the winner of which will control the global economy. (i.e., the country with the companies with the tech, wins)

(Note: if you're a TSLA trader get OUT! COVID-19 is taking it down at least for the next few months, maybe a lot.)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 02-27-2020 at 05:22 PM..