View Single Post
      02-27-2020, 07:07 PM   #3331
Salty Dog
Salty Dog's Avatar

Drives: Austin Mini,MBGLK, Porsche 993
Join Date: Nov 2019
Location: Canada

iTrader: (0)

Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
with you on the first part, the second part ... not so much. We're already at 2% ICE replaced and increasing exponentially (e.g., 2000% growth in 8 years) - that's a pretty standard new technology adoption curve/timeline (note: tech adoption isn't intuitive because the growth is nonlinear - you have to map it to see it).

ICE replacement has already started and, based on history, ICE replacement will only accelerate from here. The "BEV-tech must be perfected before adoption" theory won't bear out me thinks. For example:
"[horses are not only] self-feeding, self-controlling, self-maintaining and self-reproducing, but they are far more economical in the energy they are able to develop from a given weight of fuel material, than any other existing form of motor." -- Robert Thurston, US steam engine expert, 1894
Sounds like the BEV vs ICE energy density arguments, huh? or
The notion that electric vehicles, or vehicles of any other kind, will be able to compete with railroad trains for long-distance traffic is visionary to the point of lunacy. The fool who hatched out this latest motor canard was conscience-stricken enough to add that the whole matter was still in an exceedingly hazy state. But,if it ever emerges from the nebulous state,it will be in a world where natural laws are all turned topsy-turvy, and time and space are no more. Were it not for the surprising persistence of this delusion, the yarn would not be worthy of notice. --- E.P. Ingersoll, transportation reporter, 1899
Sounds like the BEVs-suck! guys, huh? 30 years later, gasoline automobiles didn't live up to their promises: they were dangerous and dirty, they broke down, it was hard to find fuel, the roads weren't built for them, etc etc etc - Compared to horses, gasoline automobiles made no sense! but sales were exponentially growing

ICE-tech wasn't ready to replace the reliable horse ... but it did anyway, and it did it fast. In short, we're in an energy technology transition whether we're ready for it or not, whether we like it or not, whether the tech is ready or not, and you'll either invest in it now, or regret that you didn't later.

I've never had a TSLA position and never will! Tesla is not an investor's stock, it's a trader's stock, and that's not me ... I just enjoy business & product analysis and all the culture warriors here are getting Tesla so so SO wrong. They think BEVs are about Elon or global warming or whatever. So so so wrong.

We're in a global energy-tech arms race, the winner of which will control the global economy. (i.e., the country with the companies with the tech, wins)

(Note: if you're a TSLA trader get OUT! COVID-19 is taking it down at least for the next few months, maybe a lot.)
But more importantly Corona has taken a big hit....damn folks are stupid....

Bloomberg reports:



News Wire
18h ago
Corona beer takes a hit from coronavirus as brand image suffers
Anurag Kotoky, Bloomberg News

Jason Mann discusses Constellation Brands
The novel coronavirus has an unlikely victim -- one of the world’s most popular beers.
Corona has become the subject of memes and videos shared on social media as the toll from the virus climbs worldwide. Reports of an increase in online searches for “corona beer virus” and “beer coronavirus” show the Mexican beer hasn’t been able to escape the association. The so-called purchase intent among adults in the U.S. has plunged to the lowest in two years, according to data from YouGov Plc.
The damage has become more severe in recent days as infections spread. Shares of Corona-maker Constellation Brands Inc. dived 8 per cent this week in New York. Corona’s buzz score -- which tracks whether American adults aware of the brand have heard positive or negative things about it -- has tumbled to 51 from a high of 75 at the beginning of the year, YouGov said.
Corona, which derives its name from the Sun’s corona and has nothing to do with the virus, is the third-most popular beer in the U.S., according to YouGov rankings. Guinness is first and Heineken is second.
Another reason for the drop in purchase intent could be the perception of Corona as a summer beverage associated with beach holidays, YouGov business data journalist Graeme Bruce wrote in an article published Wednesday. It therefore has substantial seasonal fluctuations, he said.