I'm not familiar with how the Fitbit works. I use a fitbit scale, but that's about it. I use a garmin step counter and myfitnesspal food log. If you use myfitnesspal, it will calculate your BMR for you and you tell it if you want to lose .5 or 1 pound a week. Then it gives you your calorie goal based on the data you entered.
if you don't do that, you need to use a BMR calculator to get your caloric burn for being horizontal and turning oxygen into carbondixoide for 24 hours.
http://www.bmi-calculator.net/bmr-calculator/#result
Then use this method to get a good idea of what your calories need to be in order to maintain your current weight. If you want to lose a pound a week, subtract the 500cal per day. If you have a hard time with it, dial it back to .5 pounds a week and subtract 250cal per day. For some people, staying under the calorie goal keeps them motivated. (takes 3500 calorie deficit over a week or 500 calorie deficit each day to burn 1 pound of fat)
Quote:
Harris Benedict Formula
To determine your total daily calorie needs, multiply your BMR by the appropriate activity factor, as follows:
If you are sedentary (little or no exercise) : Calorie-Calculation = BMR x 1.2
If you are lightly active (light exercise/sports 1-3 days/week) : Calorie-Calculation = BMR x 1.375
If you are moderatetely active (moderate exercise/sports 3-5 days/week) : Calorie-Calculation = BMR x 1.55
If you are very active (hard exercise/sports 6-7 days a week) : Calorie-Calculation = BMR x 1.725
If you are extra active (very hard exercise/sports & physical job or 2x training) : Calorie-Calculation = BMR x 1.9
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If nothing else, it's nice to do the math yourself to check up on what they determined your calorie goal should be.
You don't have to support your own weight in the pool, so calorie burn is going to be light.
While you're not supporting your own weight on the bike, your cardio system is taxed as much as it is when running.
When running our muscles are taxed the most, so much so that our cardio system can't keep up and our muscles run out of o2 and we have to slow to a walk to let it catch up.
If you jogged those same 3.9 miles your calorie burn would double that of the bike. Also, 4 min mile is on the high side of a leisure pace. Yesterday when i burned 1500 calories riding, the duration was 137 min. / by 16 min = 8.56. 1500cal / 8.56 = 175 cal.
I'd say your calorie burn rates are accurate enough. My calorie burn on the bike is measured by a power meter via expended watts. So it's pretty darn accurate. That said, i was averaging about 18mph or 3:18 min / mile. If it makes you feel better, take the calories they are reporting and multiply by .90 for a safer estimate but i think if you stick to only consuming 60% of your burned calories, you mitigate the possibility of over counting exercise calories all together.
I doubt you've lost weight from drinking more water. Remember that 16oz of water weighs 1 pound. So the more hydrated you are, the heavier you will weigh. If anything, maybe being so full of water has kept you from ingesting necessary calories.?.?.
I can see a direct correlation with my weight and hydration. Not sure how accurate of a scale you have, but mine is that Aria digital fitbit scale and i can weigh myself, go drink a 16oz bottle of water and i'll be 1 pound heavier if i weigh myself again right afterwards.
Are you weighing.... well.... naked? or at least in a very consistent manner? As in, get up, hit the head, strip down, weigh yourself; before getting water, coffee, bear claw, etc...? Some people obsess over their daily weight. I prefer to have a daily weight log and use a running 7 day average to judge results. You can look at my fitbit log and see just about 1 pound a week for almost a year now. It's pretty gratifying to see all that data.
Sorry is some of this is redundant, i'm not 100% sure how much research you've put into all this yet.