View Single Post
      02-25-2020, 08:30 AM   #3301
Major General
F32Fleet's Avatar

Drives: 2015 435i
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Southeastern US

iTrader: (0)

Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
Would have been a good time to sell. Wonder how far the free fall will go?
Pretty far I'd think - $200s or even high $100s ... Tesla is a "story stock", a way to trade on new battery tech and de-carbonization of the electric grid. If global supply chains start failing due to China, there goes Tesla's growth story, at least temporarily.

On the flip side here's why Tesla should terrify the legacy auto industry - and one of many reasons their stock is so high:

(1.) These fuckers built an auto mfr plant *from scratch*, *with their tech*, and now they're duplicating it twice. Maybe 3 times. I leave that point there, but count how many times that's been done. It's badassery level 10,000,000.

(2.) These fuckers engineered new automobiles on entirely new technology. I'll leave that one alone too, but again, count how many times it's been done.

(3.) These fuckers engineered a self-sustaining fuel source that can disconnect people from all energy infrastructure, making them completely self-sufficient for power and mobility.

And here's the thing: when you've built your own factories, on your own tech, and been through "production hell" and "logistics hell" ... AND SURVIVED IT, you're one big bad muthafucka of an auto company.

But even bad muthafuckas gotta eat, so if COVD-19 continues accelerating, it'll stave them.
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Would you agree that these decisions are largely being driven by government policy and climate change scare tactics rather than market demand?

After all when China and EU effectively ban ICE in passenger cars how else would automakers react?
Widen your aperture. A great analytical tool to use is to forget your biases as a potential answer - and then ask why. (fyi 99% of the time my bias had the wrong answer) Because if all you picture is a hammer every screw is a nail. and you keep doing it and it becomes a habit and pretty soon every complex problem has a simple solution (that's also wrong). Critical thinking and all that.

Anyway, try it here.

Let's forget about climate change and ask why would governments want new electrical infrastructure? I bet you could think of 50 really good reasons.

Then consider what we know: a BEV in its technological infancy can DESTROY an equivalent ICE at its technological zenith. (that one will be fun, huh?? it's true)

Now ask yourself again, why would governments want BEVs and new electric infrastructure technology? I bet you'll come up with more reasons. repeat.

As a quick example, here's a picture I took in Silicon Valley during the Sept 2018 fires burning 3 hours away in Napa Valley (like 100+ miles away) - that's the noon sun and Santa Cruz mountains you can't see:

This is not good for business at all.

Here's what Silicon Valley normally looks like (that's actually the moon rising into the sunset)

This is really great for business - People like it here.

Here's a picture of Shanghai pretty much most days:

Are the Chinese known for their measured care of the environment and stern green policies? yet they're driving BEV policy. huh.
OK, so the answer is yes.
"Drive more, worry less. "

435i, MPPK, MPE, M-Sport Line