Thread: Going solar?
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      02-12-2020, 11:41 AM   #7
byroncheung
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Drives: e90 m3, 997.2 c2s, x166 GL450
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Westchester, NY

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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
What is the source of your savings? You should try to figure out the unsubsidized savings, because those will be your long-term savings most likely. Personally I don’t like the idea of being subsidized by those who cannot afford solar and must pay my share of grid fixed costs, even if the law or regulation allow it, so I’d take that into account too.
Generally grid scale solar is cheaper than rooftop, and energy price trends suggest the grid will be increasingly renewables including solar, plus batteries, over the next 5-10 years. This is more true in states like NY that are pushing GHG reduction schemes. So you may be investing in something that you’ll get at lower cost anyway by just waiting.
On that point, energy prices (nat gas, the fuel “on the margin” for electricity, and electric too) have been falling wholesale for about 5 years now and the outlook is for continued declines, especially in electric costs. Grid costs (poles, wires and substations) are increasing with inflation. So I wouldn’t expect substantially rising electric prices from your utility to be a realistic scenario if that is part of your modeling.
Maintenance isn’t a big deal for rooftop solar. Expect no production when there is snow and either wait for it to melt off (months?) or plan to be able to clear it off. Leaves and other tree fall also need to be cleared. Hail, if that happens often in your area, can do significant damage. Insure against that with your homeowners’ insurer if possible. Labor and materials. If you use an inverter or batteries, there can be more maintenance. These components are less reliable. Lead acid batteries need proper ventillation.
Thanks for the thoughtful response.

The saving is all based on saved electricity bill. The subsidy are tax deductions against the installation cost of the system, the federal and state tax rebates amount to about 13k for the size of system I’m looking at. So basically the math is – say expected electricity bill over next 25 say is roughly 90k, minus my out of pocket cost of 20k, will save 70k.

Now, the calculation he showed me was assuming electricity going up at a rate of 4% a year, which I didn’t fact check. It’s interesting you brought up cost of electric cost has been lowering in the last 5 years, care to share the source of that info? Obviously it will change the math if electricity cost are going down instead of going up...

ps : I found out, at least for NY, residential electricity seems to be about flat in the last 10 year or so... : https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Researche...ty-Residential. Assuming it continues to stay flat, it already take out a large chunk if not most of the saving already, and make it not so much of an attractive proposition... Thanks for your input @2000cs , that's exact the sort of nugget I was hoping to garner from my fellow bimmer brethren!

Last edited by byroncheung; 02-12-2020 at 11:59 AM..
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