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Originally Posted by M-technik-3
Tough just watching it drop and drop and seeing no end in site.
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No end? There's always an end. In this case, when the market decides for sure that the Fed's done raising interest rates, that'll be it.
We're already seeing the market sniffing the end, like today when the minutes of the last Fed board meeting came out. Those were largely interpreted as a re-commitment to continuing to raising rates, even if it causes a recession. Which you'd think would be bad news. But the market is forward-looking, and knows that if the Fed does cause a recession it will have to lower rates next year. Which will be good for earnings next year, and thus the market went up a bit today.
That said, there's still a lot of uncertainty. What are we going to hear when Q2 earnings come out? Can the ECB raise rates or will the strong dollar cause a deep recession there? Will inflation fall and how fast? Will unemployment rise? Will Putin keep Nordstream 1 shut down past July 21? Will oil stay below $100? Will the ILWU strike? Is China really reopening? All of those could cause a significant change in expectations and the direction of the market.