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Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
The thing is your "predictions" are not that remarkable when they are at technical levels that most professionals know. When one support breaks, the next target is another level. Same goes for resistance (durrrrrr). The real key is to MAKE MONEY on your calls. Walking the walk instead of just talking. Something I think you don't do. Hence why today you were very wrong (dead money wrong).
So here is my analysis along the lines of how your "crystal ball" sees it.
Today was an interesting and somewhat important day. Let's just use the S&P for this one. The finish above 1925 indicates a lack of conviction shorting, with maybe a bit of buying mixed in. The clear resistance around 1945 will remain an overhang, unless/until it is violated. Here is the interesting setup. There is an inverse head and shoulder pattern setting up with the key being if the second shoulder is formed at 1869ish. The reason I say "ish" is the zone is between 1869-1873. Any drop below that will open the floodgates and we will be making new lows (1780ish followed by 1567). The flattening of the Russell 2000 is showing signs of upward strength, though with resistance at 1030. This is a good/interesting sign for the S&P. Possible risk on coming. Weakening in Utes, Telecom, and Staples are showing this too.
So what is my thinking? If the S&P breaks through 1869 all bets are to the downside. If it holds and retraces back to the 1925 - 1950 range there is a strong possibility we rip up to the 2030 area. Wanna know what is really interesting about this? The time frame for the completion of this movement looks to fall around the Fed meeting in mid March. Central bank (ECB, BoJ, BOE, maybe sprinkle in some PBoC, capped off by the Fed) rhetoric/data will determine the setup over the next few weeks.
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Then you and I finally agree on something...but instead of saying things like "if" , I am saying its already set in motion...we will be heading down.
Been calling for 1950-70 for 2 weeks now and we just got it, we shall be heading down next week..on our way to making those new lows...dont assume what I will be making and not making, all you need to know is that most of my calls have been dead on....if you think this is easy, just make the calls ahead of time like I do...not things like if we clear this we go to here and if we cant hold this we drop to here type of stuff...real specific predictions based on your analysis.
What you just said above about the mkt's is what you are accusing me of, a lot of what ifs based on technical levels but no actual predictions/convictions...well duh if mkt cant hold 1870 we will free fall...."and if we hold and retrace to 1925-50"???...we're already at 1960ish now...and 2030?..thats only like 2 bullish days of action...guess I think more big picture.
Just to be clear, I think the big reversal coming next week and we are heading down...if we make new all time highs than I am wrong, but I will be the first to admit I am wrong , something many professionals won't even do.
I think you expect a lot from a car MB....
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