Quote:
Originally Posted by jplev
Seems pretty positive, asks if really an "M" as many others have also.
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The transition from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) to Electric Vehicles (EVs) is rather a long one and we are no where near that goal for at least two decades. We must separate the HYPE around EVs:
1. In the USA, EVs represents about 2%-3% of the market share.
2. Of the 285 million vehicles on U.S. roads today, fewer than 2%
are EVs. It will be many decades before they outnumber traditional
vehicles.
3. The average price of an EV is at least $10,000 more than a
comparable ICE vehicle, that's no small cost the average consumer.
4. California Energy Commission estimated the state will need 1.3
million new public EV chargers by 2030. Likely cost to ratepayers:
about $13 billion. Electricity prices are soaring not decreasing.
Electricity is derived from...you guessed it? OIL.
5. Oil is and will remain the main powerhouse source of energy that
drives world economies for decades to come. Wind, Solar, Electric,
Hydrogen, etc. will take decades to mature and there is no
guarantee they will match the indisputable power of oil.
6. California Energy Commission estimated the state will need 1.3
million new public EV chargers by 2030. Likely cost to ratepayers:
about $13 billion. Last year, electricity prices soared by 7.5%
and California regulators expect rates to surge another 40% or so
by 2030. These cost increases are happening in a state with the
highest poverty rate and largest Latino population in America.
Industry consultants, such as AlixPartners, estimate that the true
cost of adding electric chargers is $50 billion to $60 billion.
Thats because the price of a direct-current fast charger for public
use can be anywhere from $100,000 to $250,000.
7. The cost of an electric battery pack will continue to fall but likely
not fast enough to achieve price parity with most gasoline vehicles
before the late 2020s.
8. Electrifying transportation will put more of our energy eggs in one
basket and make our grid an even-juicier target for terrorists,
cyberthieves, or bad actors. It will also reduce resilience and
reliability in case of a prolonged grid failure due to natural disaster,
equipment failure, or human error.
9. EVs will also make the U.S. more dependent on China. Electrifying
just half of our auto fleet will require, in rough terms, about nine
times current global cobalt production, three times global lithium
output, and about two times current copper production. As the
International Energy Agency noted in a May report, China has a
majority share in the processing of cobalt, lithium, and the rare
earth elements needed to make EVs.
10. Electricity is derived from Oil. A simple fact most people ignore
or don't understand.
If EVs are so great, why havent they taken over the market? Why do EVs still only account for 2% of all U.S. auto sales?
The simple truth is that oils century-long dominance of the transportation-fuel market is largely due to its high energy density. That density along with oils versatility, quick refueling, ease of handling, and continuing improvements in internal combustion engines and hybrids -- assures that oil will be fueling our cars, trucks, ships, boats, snowmobiles, ATVs, bulldozers, excavators, and airplanes for decades to come.
Even if this infrastructure eventually gets built, at an enormous cost, the basic rationale for electric vehiclesthat they help reduce climate changeis questionable. Electrics use fossil fuels, too: Power plants produce 60% of their electricity from natural gas, coal and oil. And trading combustion engines for plug-ins is trading oil-and-gas drilling for mining the lithium and other minerals that go into the vehicles batteries.
Bidens infrastructure bill proposes spending $65 billion to put up new transmission lines. That will take years because each line must go through lengthy approval processes, typically slowed by environmentalists worried about damage to the landscape and by nearby residents. But a complete modernization and expansion of the grid would cost at least
$4.8 trillion, and until that happens, a major switch to electric cars is a non-starter. You read that right, $4.8 Trillion!
Electric vehicles are touted as carbon neutral, but that claim doesnt consider that their batteries need more materials to build than do combustion engines. One lithium-ion car battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting some 500,000 pounds of material from mines. A combustion engine, in contrast, weighs an average of 350 pounds and uses a mere 25,000 pounds of petroleum over its entire life. Producing and processing these materials expends energy, and the more energy expended, the more heat-trapping carbon dioxide is released.
But even if, in some hypothetical world, electrics could be totally carbon neutral and every American made the switch, global carbon emissions would drop by
only 2.4%. In fact, if the entire American transportation industry, including airplanes, switched to electric, global emissions would go down only 5%.
In the above example, you pay
$75,000+ which is M Territory for what is in reality a 4-Series Grand Coupe with battery power on steroids and a rectangular touch screen. EVERYTHING else is the same, don't kid yourself. Hmmmm.....I wonder with this price tag did you save on fuel cost? lol.