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Originally Posted by XsltAnalyst
I think most people here are not taking into account certain things. Despite all the hype about EVs, they only make up about 2% of light vehicle sales in US. BMW has thousands of investors and employees to feed, so they can't just blow money on bunch of EV only non flexible platforms and hope it works out. We have all seen a lackluster sales of their hybrid and i models, so they want to keep it safe.
I actually applaud them for making plug and play EV units, they can probably make additional money by selling the electric drivetrains.
Also, one more thing to point out about most EV (particularly Tesla car) sales- it just happens to be that those who can afford it usually have a house with a garage and can charge it at home. Once that initial demand gets satisfied, there will be a plateau in EV sales unless there will be huge changes everywhere that doesn't make it a hassle owning an EV if you don't have a place to charge overnight.
Massive switch to electric vehicles may happen fast in small EU countries but it is not going to happen anytime soon in US. Norway car sales are 50% EVs but big cities like Oslo has a plug to charge on most parking spots.
Meanwhile if I want to install an outdoor charging point at our designated parking spot I have to go thru dozens of hoops just to get it approved by HOA, then spend few grand getting it installed and by that time fuel savings are not worth it.
Tens of millions of apartment dwellers in big cities and suburbs don't have a choice, even if they want to buy an EV.
Despite all the hype and ICE dying rumors, they'll be here during our lifetime and oil will still be a major source of energy for at least next few decades.
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IMO, the charging issue is what's overhyped. According to
Energy.gov, 63% of occupied housing units had a garage or carport as of January 2017. Not to mention, 70% of new construction (5-years or newer) have a garage or carport.
Besides, nothing says you have to charge your car in a garage. According to
2014 US Census data, 77% of the US population live in a house; 20% live in apartments. This means there is some conceivable option of building some sort of charging infrastructure for 77% of the population, even if it’s in your driveway. And of the 20% in apartments, some portion of those likely park in a building garage (especially in NYC).
I am
not saying everyone has easy access to charging, I'm simply saying that a majority of the market lives in a situation where they could remedy that situation.
Agree with you 100% that the EV switch isn't going to happen overnight, and that ICEs are here for the long haul, but I don't think this macro perspective is all that helpful in designing a specific automobile.
If we look at the current EV market, Tesla is dominating. Hell, you don't even have to limit it to the EV market. If you look at the sedan market, everyone is seeing declines while Tesla is selling cars as fast as they can build them. Why is that?
Consumers don't buy products, they buy identity. They buy the idea of a product. Just look at BMW. Why would a consumer choose a BMW 3-series over a Cadillac ATS when reviewers consistently place the ATS on equal footing with the 3-series? That's rhetorical
They buy the BMW because of the ideals that BMW represent. It's part of their identity.
Identity is a complicated thing, because it is formed in the minds of your buyers. "Cadillacs are for old people," is a particularly persistent idea, and it hinders Cadillac's efforts to shift their demographics. Looking at the EV & hybrid market, what's driving the popularity of the Tesla versus other options?
If you ask me, it's identity. Buyers see Tesla as a leader in full EV automobiles. Tesla built an EV from the ground up. It's easy to pitch something as innovative when it's all new. Consumers respond to this type of message. You can even see this marketing element in incumbent marketing: "Come see the
all new 2019 models!"
How will consumers react to the idea of a BMW EV that is the same as their ICE automobiles, or at least the same platform? Will they perceive it as an advancement? Will they perceive it as cost cutting? Or will they perceive it as a half-measure? That's the risk I'm talking about.
It is a real dilemma for incumbents. The automotive market has taught the market to be risk averse. However, this opens them to disruption in the form of risky upstarts like Tesla. I continue to believe that the right move is to build EV-first platforms that share as little as possible with traditional ICE products. The goal needs has to be creating the consumer perception that BMW EV models are every bit as new and innovative as models from Tesla. I think this shared platform fails at that.