That's never been true in any industry since the at least 70s, and likely before. To wit:
* Blockbuster never caught up with Netflix, never copied their software, went bankrupt. Hulu, Disney, HBOMax, et al are trying to catch up, and may, but who knows
... and online content is the industry with the least susceptibility to software-based disruption (viewers are simple) - yet here we are 25 years later and Netflix competitors are far from beating it.
* Walmart & Target have never caught up with Amazon, never copied their software, are still trying to catch up (but never will).
* Nokia, Ericksson, Blackberry have never caught up with Apple, never copied their software, and never will catch up.
In short,
no: legacy competition won't catch up unless consumer autos defies business physics ... and it won't and
here's why:
(1.) TSLA is the top brand in BEVs, and has be for 10
YEARS, not only has no competitor caught up,
no competitor has come close.
(2.) The CEO of VW-Audi Group, (i.e., Porsche)
said in blogpost,
VAG is 4 years behind Tesla's Technology. Further
VW management is a fractured mess, Diess is
at war with the board, and they're completely unorganized.
(3.) The boards of VAG, Benz, and BMW met in Q1 2020 to discuss a BEV software JV to take on Tesla; i.e.,
the German automakers - at the very highest levels - believe Tesla has a BEV technology lead.
(4.) TSLA is profitably making and selling BEVs -
who else is?
(5.) TSLA vehicles and technology aren't and won't be frozen in time;
they'll continue releasing better technology, more vehicles, new design, and more features at an accelerating pace ... how do we know? Because this is has been happening for a decade.
Further, TSLA's corporate structure is 100% built to innovate and profitably build BEVs - no competitor comes close to that and
TSLA's patented manufacturing technology is just coming online. This is why tech brand leaders always win
no matter how big the competition is: they have legacy costs and their corporate structures are built around legacy product, not new products. For example:
• Tesla has no union costs or legacy union costs like pensions to fund
• Tesla has no marketing costs; VW spent $400M on BEV marketing in Q4 alone
• Tesla has no dealership margins to pay; VW can't make this work as it is (inside scoop is ~ICE margin is 16% but BEV margin is 0% with VW promising to make it up)
As it stands, TSLA has all ICE manufacturers beat cold on costs and this will only get better for Tesla.
Yes, as competitors put out debut models it'll definitely impact Tesla sales, and maybe a competitor will have a hit, but as I said, Tesla isn't standing still with either models, features, manufacturing tech, factory capacity, or battery tech.
With that, there are players who are a large threat to Tesla:
•
Apple may beat TSLA with a stronger brand and
outsourced manufacturing
• TSLA may get overwhelmed by by
generic platforms running Big Tech software
• Tesla has
big trouble in little China
• Tesla will face
other tech competitors: the SPACs, upstarts, JVs, and others ...
But no, the odds of legacy auto manufacturers beating TSLA, given current trends, isn't supported by available data.