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      04-03-2020, 10:58 AM   #77
jamesinaz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flacht3 View Post
For what it's worth, you rarely get a massive recession in a "single country" at this point without it impacting other countries. Global markets are too intertwined.

Lot's of opinions in this thread, but the truth is no one has the answer. We can only take educated guesses and prepare ourselves for what's coming (really, already here).

But we have NEVER seen a cause like this. We essentially had to pull the plug on the economy (shut down businesses, yank jobs from the market, etc.) overnight. And once the curves flatten, we'll gradually start bringing them back online. This is very different than systematic recessions of the past.


I think of it like this:

We just unplugged the router (massive exponential unemployment), and need to keep it off (unemployment won't get better) but will plug it back in soon, once the system boots back up (jobs will come back online) we'll gradually return to normal. Yes there will be pain and it will still be a recovery, but it's very different vs. in the 2008, the router was broken and it took us a long time to decide how to fix it and find the right replacement parts.
Interesting analogy. Time will tell how deep this goes. My concern would be mild if most nations had minimal debt. But I wonder how this will play out with most nations printing money and kicking the financial can down the road for years.

Well short term I am wondering if I'll get a good deal on a car in June. My lease is up then.
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