[ggalanis]

Originally Posted by VirtualGuitars

My vehicle has lost more value in the first six months (-$36k) than my M550 did in four years ($30k) not to mention my iX costing $40K more. I don’t feel there’s going to be much demand for used EVs - especially as battery technology improves. I understood BMW’s move to offer these incredible lease incentives while they had excess inventory built-up because of canceled orders due to all of those recalls and stop sales, but the fact that they’ve kept it for three or four months after is alarming to me.

Since the XM’s aren’t really selling that well, I have a chance to capitalize on getting one at a great price in addition to the $7500 lease credit. The biggest mistake I made was purchasing my iX. Turns out actually buying an EV is not the best move today. With a new lease, at least I’ll know where the bottom is from the beginning.

You are calculating depreciation by using the dealer trade in amount. That is not correct. They have to offer you less than the actual value on the used market in order to turn a profit from it. The fact the iX was more expensive means it will depreciate more, both in absolute numbers and relative. Same thing happens to cars like the 7 series. The depreciation so far seems about the same as for other cars in the class and at similar price point.

If you want the XM go for it, eat the depreciation and enjoy the new car. But don't be surprised when you ask them for a trade in value for it and the exact same thing happens again. Of course if you lease it, that doesn't apply.

I just don't get why people worry about depreciation on these cars. I just enjoy my car's until i feel the new car itch again and then, the numbers are what they are. If I am not happy, I can simply hold onto it longer.

[VirtualGuitars]

Depreciation seems to be much worse on EV‘s. To lose 33% of its value in only six months while it’s still a current model year is just absurd. My 2019 M550 was 80k MSRP and the trade-in value was 48k after 48 months. I think I will be leasing from this point forward If this trend continues.

[Salespunk]

Buying during the peak of shortages and hype cycle is what you are feeling and the XM is going to be worse no matter how great the "deal" you get. You are now well into the depreciation cycle on the iX and you will be jumping back to the top with the XM.

I ran some quick numbers on an XM lease assuming a $158K MSRP, $25K discount, $7500 lease credit and a 53% residual which is what was showing as of last month. For a three year lease you would spend approximately $59K and then have to give the car back and have zero equity. So the question is whether you think the iX is going to essentially zero from here because that is what it would have to do for the XM to be a better financial move.

Not trying to be rude, just don't want people to make emotional decisions. The iX will likely stabilize around $45-60K in value going forward. It still has great range, fantastic acceleration and incredible tech.

Not sure what people expect to happen in the future, but do you really care if you have 500 miles of range instead of 340 miles? Does charging from 20-80% a few minutes quicker matter the few times that you charge away from home? Those are going to be the significant changes going forward. EV's are infinitely more reliable than ICE based vehicles with plenty of people running i3's to 150K+ miles and zero issues.

One other note on weight, the iX is not THAT heavy relative to other high performance SUV's. The iX is only a few hundred lbs heavier than an X5M and does that really matter on an +/-5500 lb vehicle?

[VirtualGuitars]

Originally Posted by Salespunk

Buying during the peak of shortages and hype cycle is what you are feeling and the XM is going to be worse no matter how great the "deal" you get. You are now well into the depreciation cycle on the iX and you will be jumping back to the top with the XM.

I ran some quick numbers on an XM lease assuming a $158K MSRP, $25K discount, $7500 lease credit and a 53% residual which is what was showing as of last month. For a three year lease you would spend approximately $59K and then have to give the car back and have zero equity. So the question is whether you think the iX is going to essentially zero from here because that is what it would have to do for the XM to be a better financial move.

Not trying to be rude, just don't want people to make emotional decisions. The iX will likely stabilize around $45-60K in value going forward. It still has great range, fantastic acceleration and incredible tech.

Not sure what people expect to happen in the future, but do you really care if you have 500 miles of range instead of 340 miles? Does charging from 20-80% a few minutes quicker matter the few times that you charge away from home? Those are going to be the significant changes going forward. EV's are infinitely more reliable than ICE based vehicles with plenty of people running i3's to 150K+ miles and zero issues.

One other note on weight, the iX is not THAT heavy relative to other high performance SUV's. The iX is only a few hundred lbs heavier than an X5M and does that really matter on an +/-5500 lb vehicle?

I appreciate you running the numbers. It appears I bought at the worst possible time - scratch that - I did buy it at the worst possible time. I can only imagine how much worse it’s going to be if I keep the iX for three or four years. Even at 60K, that’s under half what I paid and I’ve only had it for nine months. I know it’s not valued that low just yet, but I don’t think it will take long to get there. I’m really going to have to think this over. Thanks again.

[Road Trip]

Every one of us gets to make our own choice. I go into every car knowing two things: First, going to love it and second going to take a financial hit. As long as one can afford that hit, even if it depreciates more than I thought it might, fine — again as one as the experience of owning it has been joyful.

Other than our 2020 C8 Stingray which we drove for over 2 years and made $10K net, I am the model for the “buy high, sell low” club — e.g., lost money on the other 53. But still have a crush on the vehicles I drive, and for me that is my “most important.”

I will lose money on iX but if it is half as much fun as I believe it will be, I will be smiling while owning it.

[VirtualGuitars]

Originally Posted by Road Trip

Every one of us gets to make our own choice. I go into every car knowing two things: First, going to love it and second going to take a financial hit. As long as one can afford that hit, even if it depreciates more than I thought it might, fine — again as one as the experience of owning it has been joyful.

Other than our 2020 C8 Stingray which we drove for over 2 years and made $10K net, I am the model for the “buy high, sell low” club — e.g., lost money on the other 53. But still have a crush on the vehicles I drive, and for me that is my “most important.”

I will lose money on iX but if it is half as much fun as I believe it will be, I will be smiling while owning it.

Unfortunately I have a 2023 model that’s had a lot of iDrive 8 issues that they can’t seem to resolve permanently. This is definitely a deciding factor for me. Plus I really wouldn’t mind having highway assistant now. You probably won’t have to worry about either of those things if you’re getting a 2024.

[Road Trip]

Sometimes as you are now unfortunately now experiencing, you have a vehicle that will not get its act together now matter what is done to rectify its issues. I had one like that, so bad that the OEM actively and insistently pursued me to accept a buy-out for it.

I hope either yours gets back on track soon or you are offered a fair deal to get a replacement one!

[Louis_BE]

Originally Posted by ggalanis

Agreed! You beat me to it.

And, the iX depreciation is not out of line with what a similar gas powered X5 has. The only cars that had a huge depreciation hit was lightly used Teslas because they dropped the prices of the new ones by so much.

Don't believe the hype... The tech will not radically change in the next few years. And in any case, the tech in new cars doesn't affect the value of the used ones. We will get incremental improvements like with anything else.

If the neue klasse holds, it will be a jump, a car that is 30% better in range/charging, I think second hand market will react accordingly … in the end a car is a bad investment and the best thing you can do, is drive it till it’s recycle point or it stops going down like the first 3 years …
If I sell my 7 soon to be 8 year Q7 now, I still would get the price I got a year ago … but if I wait till diesel is band, I’ll probably get 5K or so, but even then it would be more economically then buying a new car that looses like 20-25% in the first year.

[ggalanis]

Originally Posted by Louis_BE

If the neue klasse holds, it will be a jump, a car that is 30% better in range/charging, I think second hand market will react accordingly … in the end a car is a bad investment and the best thing you can do, is drive it till it’s recycle point or it stops going down like the first 3 years …
If I sell my 7 soon to be 8 year Q7 now, I still would get the price I got a year ago … but if I wait till diesel is band, I’ll probably get 5K or so, but even then it would be more economically then buying a new car that looses like 20-25% in the first year.

As much as I'd like to see BMW come up with a battery that blows the current ones out of the water, you have to look at the marketing articles (they are marketing) cautiously. Based on what I have read, I'm expecting cheaper to produce battery packs (with savings NOT initially passed onto us, only when replacing or repairing will customers see any savings) , similar if not worse power to weight density, better volumetric power density and slightly quicker charging.

The extra range, if any, will just come from shoving higher capacity battery packs, i.e. more weight, into the cars which they could do now by making them bigger. The 30% faster charging is simply a result of moving to 800V, which could have been done with the older packs like many of the competitors have. And in fact even at 260kW peak, would not be class leading (but maybe they can have a very flat curve).

I'd love to be wrong.

As for the effects on used versions, it would be the same effects as in the X5 each time a new, more powerful and more fuel efficient model comes out. The new X5 doesn't compete with the 5 year old X5. The same for EVs.

[deutsch100]

Originally Posted by Road Trip

Every one of us gets to make our own choice. I go into every car knowing two things: First, going to love it and second going to take a financial hit. As long as one can afford that hit, even if it depreciates more than I thought it might, fine — again as one as the experience of owning it has been joyful.

Other than our 2020 C8 Stingray which we drove for over 2 years and made $10K net, I am the model for the “buy high, sell low” club — e.g., lost money on the other 53. But still have a crush on the vehicles I drive, and for me that is my “most important.”

I will lose money on iX but if it is half as much fun as I believe it will be, I will be smiling while owning it.

Right on man! This is how we look at almost every car trade/sell/buy! While life is long, it can also be short. Cars makes us happy! I'm not only fine, but beyond happy to live in jeans, tees and Converse (or Vans)...but love buying and trading cars. 90% have been losses (some big), but getting a new car is just too much fun to stop!!

[NomoTesla]

Originally Posted by VirtualGuitars

My vehicle has lost more value in the first six months (-$36k) than my M550 did in four years ($30k) not to mention my iX costing $40K more. I don’t feel there’s going to be much demand for used EVs - especially as battery technology improves. I understood BMW’s move to offer these incredible lease incentives while they had excess inventory built-up because of canceled orders due to all of those recalls and stop sales, but the fact that they’ve kept it for three or four months after is alarming to me.

Since the XM’s aren’t really selling that well, I have a chance to capitalize on getting one at a great price in addition to the $7500 lease credit. The biggest mistake I made was purchasing my iX. Turns out actually buying an EV is not the best move today. With a new lease, at least I’ll know where the bottom is from the beginning.

Your vehicle has not lost any value. You still own it. You are basing a decision on hypotheticals that could change at any moment. Oil prices just spiked out of fear of a wider conflict in the Middle East. How do you know EV sales won't spike a year from now? A year before I sold my Model S (8 years old at the time) the value was $20k. A year later it went up to $34k. That's what the market does.

There is no "bleeding", as you say. Why do you think an XM won't depreciate as much as an iX? Why wouldn't it? All of these cars depreciate massive amounts in their first year or two. That's just how things work. It was only since COVID that used cars actually went up in value or their depreciation slowed to a crawl. That's not normal.

Today we have a glut of inventory built-up as a result of the post-COVID supply chain issues. The dam broke and now we have a lot of cars. This is the basic rule of supply and demand. You're presuming that will not come back into balance, but it will. VW and others are trimming back production as a result of the market. This will pull back supply and help to stabilize prices.

Presumably, the reason one purchases an EV is because of the unique aspects of the EV experience. That describes everyone in my circle, anyway. Someone who buys an EV for those reasons would never, ever trade or sell to go back to ICE. It sounds to me like your desire to drive an EV is not as strong.

At the end of the day, do what makes you happy. I love my 2023 BMW iX and I've never once checked into trade-in values. Why would I care? By the time I sell the car 7-9 years from now any difference in depreciation between my car and someone else's will be statistically insignificant.

Originally Posted by VirtualGuitars

Unfortunately I have a 2023 model that’s had a lot of iDrive 8 issues that they can’t seem to resolve permanently. This is definitely a deciding factor for me. Plus I really wouldn’t mind having highway assistant now. You probably won’t have to worry about either of those things if you’re getting a 2024.

I mean this with the best possible intent, but it sounds like you are more concerned with what you don't have than with what you do have. What are you going to do when you buy a 2024, only to be obsoleted in 2025 or 2026? Same ferris wheel, same thinking pattern, then sell/trade for another loss. Rinse and repeat. Neuklasse is coming in a couple of years. iX redesign is also coming in a couple of years. I simply cannot fathom the constant turnover of vehicles for some people out of the desire to "keep up".

I also think one's financial situation has a lot to do with how one views this. If realizing a $30k-$40k loss out of pocket on a car is not something that is going to rock your finances, then you are in a vastly different income category than am I. It's all relative.

[NomoTesla]

One last thing... Tesla Plaids have lost about 1/3 of their value based on Tesla's recent price reductions and also gained a new, updated 4.0 camera suite. Yet everyone I know with a Plaid loves it and has no plans to sell or trade. I also find that my Tesla brethren are quite savvy about finances, especially those who paid $150k for a car.

[VirtualGuitars]

Originally Posted by NomoTesla

I mean this with the best possible intent, but it sounds like you are more concerned with what you don't have than with what you do have. What are you going to do when you buy a 2024, only to be obsoleted in 2025 or 2026? Same ferris wheel, same thinking pattern, then sell/trade for another loss. Rinse and repeat. Neuklasse is coming in a couple of years. iX redesign is also coming in a couple of years. I simply cannot fathom the constant turnover of vehicles for some people out of the desire to "keep up".

I also think one's financial situation has a lot to do with how one views this. If realizing a $30k-$40k loss out of pocket on a car is not something that is going to rock your finances, then you are in a vastly different income category than am I. It's all relative.

I’m more concerned about all of the current problems I’m having with iDrive 8 that they can’t seem to resolve. I need eSIM to work reliably every time I use the vehicle and I’m getting tired of fighting it after 9 months. In the end, I’m always going to lose my @ss on these vehicles. Thank you for your insights.

[exxxviii]

Originally Posted by VirtualGuitars

I’m more concerned about all of the current problems I’m having with iDrive 8 that they can’t seem to resolve. I need eSIM to work reliably every time I use the vehicle and I’m getting tired of fighting it after 9 months.

I have a tiny scale example of your conundrum... my cell phone carrier did something that messed up my daughter's service - almost everything worked, but the phone could not receive incoming calls. They thought they fixed it once. But then after about 4-1/2 hours on the phone and a very long session with Tier 2 support, they thought they had it fixed. But the next day, it was back to its previous problem. I realized that the only way to fix the phone was to abandon that carrier and change services. That change did not cost me anything but hassle, but the phone worked perfectly with the new carrier.

You are at the point where an important feature is inop, and the dealer has no clue how to fix it. The only fix is probably a new car. I would likely do the same.

Oh, and my other similar comical depreciation experience that I created for myself... I bought a Tesla Model Y in 2022 to hold me over until my Cadillac Lyriq would arrive. I figured that was a safe purchase and the lowest likely depreciation over the next year or so. Nope. I'm going to lose my butt on the Tesla when the iX arrives.

[VirtualGuitars]

Originally Posted by exxxviii

You are at the point where an important feature is inop, and the dealer has no clue how to fix it. The only fix is probably a new car. I would likely do the same.

Yup. I’m at that point. They had it for 3 weeks last month, replaced the telecommunications module, updated the software four or five times and they still showed ethernet faults and they couldn’t figure out what was actually wrong. It did work OK for about two weeks, but I had to reboot iDrive two times in a row yesterday to get it to work. It’s not the carrier. I’m in IT I need the hotspot feature to work and I don’t want to use my phone. Sounds trivial, and I doubt most people use their hotspot feature is much as I do, so doing an occasional reboot is probably not that big of a deal, but having to do it every single day is getting old.

In all fairness to the dealer, they went back-and-forth with BMW trying to figure out what to do next. They don’t really know what’s wrong.

[FultonMDUSA]

Trading in your vehicle and buying a new one at the same time is similar to selling your house and buying another one at the same time.

In both cases, the transactions are happening simultaneously, in the same "market". If the market is low, you'll get a poor price for your trade in/old house, but a good deal for your replacement. If the market is high, you'll get a great price for your trade in/old house, but also overpay for your replacement.

As long as you are simultaneously selling/buying in the same market, you'll get the same net deal.

[VirtualGuitars]

Originally Posted by FultonMDUSA

Trading in your vehicle and buying a new one at the same time is similar to selling your house and buying another one at the same time.

In both cases, the transactions are happening simultaneously, in the same "market". If the market is low, you'll get a poor price for your trade in/old house, but a good deal for your replacement. If the market is high, you'll get a great price for your trade in/old house, but also overpay for your replacement.

As long as you are simultaneously selling/buying in the same market, you'll get the same net deal.

We’ll see. My auto insurance would over double going from the iX to the XM ($821 to $2,019 every six months) for the exact same coverage if I stay with Progressive Insurance. It’s very frustrating because the price I would end up paying for the XM is only about $20,000 more than I paid for my iX and the safety systems are pretty much identical. Obviously auto insurance has a million variables like repair costs, etc. that factory into the premiums.

Still waiting for the final numbers from the dealership on the XM lease. I asked for 15% off (about $25k) in addition to the $7,500 instant lease rebate. In the end, I’m sure I’ll end up keeping the iX. I do love my iX, I just wish I didn’t have so many problems with iDrive 8.

[VirtualGuitars]

Well, looks like I’m keeping the iX. I just tried a negotiate with a dealer here in Houston on an incoming ‘24 XM. MSRP is $163,396 (including the destination charge) and the best they can do is $154,000 (5.75% off MSRP) before the $7,500 lease credit. I think I’m going to pass at this point. That’s just not enough off MSRP for me to pull the trigger - especially on a vehicle that seems to have a very limited number of willing buyers. I do like the vehicle though.

According to this particular dealership, they said they’ve sold every XM they’ve received without really discounting much. They have moved a lot of these as I’ve been watching the inventory for a few months. Not sure how so many XM owners are getting such great deals (15% off MSRP).

[VirtualGuitars]

So it looks like you guys are stuck with me on this part of the forum. Sorry about that!

[darylp310]

VirtualGuitars I'm sure you've answered this before, but can you remind us why you need to use the built-in eSim? IIRC, it was for your radar detector right? If you don't want to tether to your phone, is there any reason why you don't just buy a stand alone 5G access point? Like they are pretty small nowadays, so you could just permanently put it into the rear USB-C port and hide it in the pocket behind your seat. Wouldn't that solve your particular problem?

IMO, the eSim will really only useful when BMW start rolling out more video streaming apps which will require lots of 5G bandwidth. At this point, some 8.5 users have Youtube, but that's about it. On Teslas with Disney+, YouTube, Netflix, Tiktok, etc, it makes total sense to pay for premium cellular connectivity, because otherwise the manufacturer would need to eat the cost for using so much cellular data bandwidth on this apps. But in the case of BMW, there are so few media apps at this point, and the bandwidth requirements are so little, so it's extremely hard to rationalize the eSim.

BTW, similar to you, I've been test driving my neighbors 2024 iX to check out highway assistant. But my honest assessment, HA is quite temperamental compared to the 2023 drivers assist. It disengages a lot more often and causes me more stress. I can't even look at the infotainment screen to change songs on CarPlay without it nagging and playing loud alerts. (I drove a 2024 again for a couple of hours this past weekend and was frustrated with all the "Eye Distraction Alerts"!!)

IMHO, access to Highway Assistant and 8.5 is not worth eating the deprecation cost to trade up. I considered it myself, and the advantages of the new head unit are not even worth $10K, and certainly not anywhere worth the $20-30K real-world deprecation hit.

[VirtualGuitars]

Originally Posted by darylp310

VirtualGuitars I'm sure you've answered this before, but can you remind us why you need to use the built-in eSim? IIRC, it was for your radar detector right? If you don't want to tether to your phone, is there any reason why you don't just buy a stand alone 5G access point? Like they are pretty small nowadays, so you could just permanently put it into the rear USB-C port and hide it in the pocket behind your seat. Wouldn't that solve your particular problem?

IMO, the eSim will really only useful when BMW start rolling out more video streaming apps which will require lots of 5G bandwidth. At this point, some 8.5 users have Youtube, but that's about it. On Teslas with Disney+, YouTube, Netflix, Tiktok, etc, it makes total sense to pay for premium cellular connectivity, because otherwise the manufacturer would need to eat the cost for using so much cellular data bandwidth on this apps. But in the case of BMW, there are so few media apps at this point, and the bandwidth requirements are so little, so it's extremely hard to rationalize the eSim.

BTW, similar to you, I've been test driving my neighbors 2024 iX to check out highway assistant. But my honest assessment, HA is quite temperamental compared to the 2023 drivers assist. It disengages a lot more often and causes me more stress. I can't even look at the infotainment screen to change songs on CarPlay without it nagging and playing loud alerts. (I drove a 2024 again for a couple of hours this past weekend and was frustrated with all the "Eye Distraction Alerts"!!)

IMHO, access to Highway [...]

I use it for more than just my radar detector. I absolutely hate hotspotting off my phone because it wears the battery down and I have other devices that I need working at the same time. Plus it’s really nice being able to make and receive calls without my phone being in the vehicle. Yes, I would love to have highway assistant, but that’s not a reason enough to buy a new vehicle. It would just be an added bonus.

I just want my vehicle to work as expected. If that was the case, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

[Salespunk]

Originally Posted by VirtualGuitars

I appreciate you running the numbers. It appears I bought at the worst possible time - scratch that - I did buy it at the worst possible time. I can only imagine how much worse it’s going to be if I keep the iX for three or four years. Even at 60K, that’s under half what I paid and I’ve only had it for nine months. I know it’s not valued that low just yet, but I don’t think it will take long to get there. I’m really going to have to think this over. Thanks again.

If it makes you feel any better my wife and I bought our last house in May of 2005 We were upside down for over 10 years, but we still got utility out of it and still loved it.