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      02-27-2020, 09:30 AM   #3323
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29% of current CO2 emissions come from cars. 28% come from generation of electricity. If you need to generate a lot more electricity for a lot more EVs, we will be burning a lot more stuff. And the only way the environment benefits is if energy generation significantly shifts to renewable. Which I don’t see happening in the next 15 years. Good point about the relative burining efficiency though.

Last edited by 5.M0NSTER; 02-27-2020 at 09:45 AM..
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      02-27-2020, 01:11 PM   #3324
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Originally Posted by 5.M0NSTER View Post
29% of current CO2 emissions come from cars. 28% come from generation of electricity. If you need to generate a lot more electricity for a lot more EVs, we will be burning a lot more stuff. And the only way the environment benefits is if energy generation significantly shifts to renewable. Which I don’t see happening in the next 15 years. Good point about the relative burining efficiency though.
The geo-political strategic/tactical thinking to go EV:

(1.) Spare air pollution in cities - cities create a lot of wealth and nobody like to travel to, or move to, a city with air pollution. It's about the economy and business - this is China's core reasoning (sort of, see below).

(2.) Gains in efficiency/clean generation are IMMEDIATELY recognized by every electric vehicle, also a great system for developing cities / economies - allows for tighter control of energy costs.

(3.) Sun-zone owners can generate their own power and even sell back to the grid for "free" fuel. This also means a less vulnerable energy infrastructure

(4.) Electric "peaker" plants cost about 10x less than legacy and need 100x less servicing, especially peakers that aren't used often. A great reason for growing countries to use e-tech.

(5.) Battery tech is in its infancy, so huge economic boom ... but more importantly, an opportunity for non-western countries to become leaders in global technology and own markets the way US companies do. If you're China, strategically, you want totally new energy infrastructure; if you're the US, you can't afford to let e-tech-dev get out of your hands. So for the US, being a leader in BEV tech is a matter of national security.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-27-2020, 03:54 PM   #3325
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
(5.) Battery tech is in its infancy, so huge economic boom ... but more importantly, an opportunity for non-western countries to become leaders in global technology and own markets the way US companies do. If you're China, strategically, you want totally new energy infrastructure; if you're the US, you can't afford to let e-tech-dev get out of your hands. So for the US, being a leader in BEV tech is a matter of national security.
And I think this is the main downfall of EV's. It's just not all here yet. With transistor manufacturing processes nearing the limits of silicon, and the limited experience / tech we currently have in batteries, all the current EV's are just proving grounds. We have a long ways to go before any ICE will be replaced by an EV.
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      02-27-2020, 03:56 PM   #3326
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GG....have you added to your TSLA position given the declines this week?
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      02-27-2020, 04:04 PM   #3327
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Pretty sure BMW said ICE will be around for another 20-30 years.

However, you're going to see downsized engines and hybrid powertrains on almost everything sooner rather than later.

Besides weight, I don't see the downside performance wise. Batteries will get more power dense and space efficient pretty quickly.
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      02-27-2020, 04:17 PM   #3328
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GG....have you added to your TSLA position given the declines this week?
All of Februaries gains are wiped out at the moment.
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      02-27-2020, 04:43 PM   #3329
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All of Februaries gains are wiped out at the moment.
Most, yes, but not all. MTD is still up 4.4%. YTD its still up 62%.

Not bad, all things considered.
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      02-27-2020, 04:54 PM   #3330
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Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
And I think this is the main downfall of EV's. It's just not all here yet. With transistor manufacturing processes nearing the limits of silicon, and the limited experience / tech we currently have in batteries, all the current EV's are just proving grounds. We have a long ways to go before any ICE will be replaced by an EV.
with you on the first part, the second part ... not so much. We're already at 2% ICE replaced and increasing exponentially (e.g., 2000% growth in 8 years) - that's a pretty standard new technology adoption curve/timeline (note: tech adoption isn't intuitive because the growth is nonlinear - you have to map it to see it).

ICE replacement has already started and, based on history, ICE replacement will only accelerate from here. The "BEV-tech must be perfected before adoption" theory won't bear out me thinks. For example:
"[horses are not only] self-feeding, self-controlling, self-maintaining and self-reproducing, but they are far more economical in the energy they are able to develop from a given weight of fuel material, than any other existing form of motor." -- Robert Thurston, US steam engine expert, 1894
Sounds like the BEV vs ICE energy density arguments, huh? or
The notion that electric vehicles, or vehicles of any other kind, will be able to compete with railroad trains for long-distance traffic is visionary to the point of lunacy. The fool who hatched out this latest motor canard was conscience-stricken enough to add that the whole matter was still in an exceedingly hazy state. But,if it ever emerges from the nebulous state,it will be in a world where natural laws are all turned topsy-turvy, and time and space are no more. Were it not for the surprising persistence of this delusion, the yarn would not be worthy of notice. --- E.P. Ingersoll, transportation reporter, 1899
Sounds like the BEVs-suck! guys, huh? 30 years later, gasoline automobiles didn't live up to their promises: they were dangerous and dirty, they broke down, it was hard to find fuel, the roads weren't built for them, etc etc etc - Compared to horses, gasoline automobiles made no sense! but sales were exponentially growing

ICE-tech wasn't ready to replace the reliable horse ... but it did anyway, and it did it fast. In short, we're in an energy technology transition whether we're ready for it or not, whether we like it or not, whether the tech is ready or not, and you'll either invest in it now, or regret that you didn't later.

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Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
GG....have you added to your TSLA position given the declines this week?
I've never had a TSLA position and never will! Tesla is not an investor's stock, it's a trader's stock, and that's not me ... I just enjoy business & product analysis and all the culture warriors here are getting Tesla so so SO wrong. They think BEVs are about Elon or global warming or whatever. So so so wrong.

We're in a global energy-tech arms race, the winner of which will control the global economy. (i.e., the country with the companies with the tech, wins)

(Note: if you're a TSLA trader get OUT! COVID-19 is taking it down at least for the next few months, maybe a lot.)
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 02-27-2020 at 05:22 PM..
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      02-27-2020, 07:07 PM   #3331
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
with you on the first part, the second part ... not so much. We're already at 2% ICE replaced and increasing exponentially (e.g., 2000% growth in 8 years) - that's a pretty standard new technology adoption curve/timeline (note: tech adoption isn't intuitive because the growth is nonlinear - you have to map it to see it).

ICE replacement has already started and, based on history, ICE replacement will only accelerate from here. The "BEV-tech must be perfected before adoption" theory won't bear out me thinks. For example:
"[horses are not only] self-feeding, self-controlling, self-maintaining and self-reproducing, but they are far more economical in the energy they are able to develop from a given weight of fuel material, than any other existing form of motor." -- Robert Thurston, US steam engine expert, 1894
Sounds like the BEV vs ICE energy density arguments, huh? or
The notion that electric vehicles, or vehicles of any other kind, will be able to compete with railroad trains for long-distance traffic is visionary to the point of lunacy. The fool who hatched out this latest motor canard was conscience-stricken enough to add that the whole matter was still in an exceedingly hazy state. But,if it ever emerges from the nebulous state,it will be in a world where natural laws are all turned topsy-turvy, and time and space are no more. Were it not for the surprising persistence of this delusion, the yarn would not be worthy of notice. --- E.P. Ingersoll, transportation reporter, 1899
Sounds like the BEVs-suck! guys, huh? 30 years later, gasoline automobiles didn't live up to their promises: they were dangerous and dirty, they broke down, it was hard to find fuel, the roads weren't built for them, etc etc etc - Compared to horses, gasoline automobiles made no sense! but sales were exponentially growing

ICE-tech wasn't ready to replace the reliable horse ... but it did anyway, and it did it fast. In short, we're in an energy technology transition whether we're ready for it or not, whether we like it or not, whether the tech is ready or not, and you'll either invest in it now, or regret that you didn't later.



I've never had a TSLA position and never will! Tesla is not an investor's stock, it's a trader's stock, and that's not me ... I just enjoy business & product analysis and all the culture warriors here are getting Tesla so so SO wrong. They think BEVs are about Elon or global warming or whatever. So so so wrong.

We're in a global energy-tech arms race, the winner of which will control the global economy. (i.e., the country with the companies with the tech, wins)

(Note: if you're a TSLA trader get OUT! COVID-19 is taking it down at least for the next few months, maybe a lot.)
But more importantly Corona has taken a big hit....damn folks are stupid....

Bloomberg reports:

COMPANY NEWS

International

News Wire
18h ago
Corona beer takes a hit from coronavirus as brand image suffers
Anurag Kotoky, Bloomberg News






Jason Mann discusses Constellation Brands
The novel coronavirus has an unlikely victim -- one of the world’s most popular beers.
Corona has become the subject of memes and videos shared on social media as the toll from the virus climbs worldwide. Reports of an increase in online searches for “corona beer virus” and “beer coronavirus” show the Mexican beer hasn’t been able to escape the association. The so-called purchase intent among adults in the U.S. has plunged to the lowest in two years, according to data from YouGov Plc.
The damage has become more severe in recent days as infections spread. Shares of Corona-maker Constellation Brands Inc. dived 8 per cent this week in New York. Corona’s buzz score -- which tracks whether American adults aware of the brand have heard positive or negative things about it -- has tumbled to 51 from a high of 75 at the beginning of the year, YouGov said.
Corona, which derives its name from the Sun’s corona and has nothing to do with the virus, is the third-most popular beer in the U.S., according to YouGov rankings. Guinness is first and Heineken is second.
Another reason for the drop in purchase intent could be the perception of Corona as a summer beverage associated with beach holidays, YouGov business data journalist Graeme Bruce wrote in an article published Wednesday. It therefore has substantial seasonal fluctuations, he said.
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      02-27-2020, 07:12 PM   #3332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by See5 View Post
Pretty sure BMW said ICE will be around for another 20-30 years.

However, you're going to see downsized engines and hybrid powertrains on almost everything sooner rather than later.

Besides weight, I don't see the downside performance wise. Batteries will get more power dense and space efficient pretty quickly.
I think it'll be a bit longer than that, just the logistics to make the change if everyone was on board and wanted it now it'd take 20 years. So far people don't seem to be lining up to buy EV's.
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      02-27-2020, 10:25 PM   #3333
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But more importantly Corona has taken a big hit....damn folks are stupid....
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-28-2020, 01:08 PM   #3334
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I'm pretty sure the sentiment was the same when horses were being phased out...
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      02-28-2020, 01:12 PM   #3335
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So far people don't seem to be lining up to buy EV's.
LOL. Really?

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      02-28-2020, 06:04 PM   #3336
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LOL. Really?

It's an iPhone with wheels. What do you expect?

I'd imagine Teslas have their own version of the open box drop too, pulling a mustang move coming out of the parking lot on captain insano mode.
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      02-28-2020, 08:16 PM   #3337
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Originally Posted by Gamb1t View Post
All these fast Tesla's are marketing gimmick.
The internet's thoughts on Tesla's marketing are always interesting.

Last year, their "marketing, promotional and advertising" spend was $27m, which is effectively nothing. The majority of that was for promotional activities and press events with $0 spent on advertising. Their entire marketing department at HQ is all of 25 people. That's about the size of most marketing departments at a B2B startup with 500 employees.

If Tesla is putting any effort into this whole marketing thing...they sure do suck at it.
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      02-28-2020, 09:07 PM   #3338
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Originally Posted by FC4 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamb1t View Post
All these fast Tesla's are marketing gimmick.
The internet's thoughts on Tesla's marketing are always interesting.

Last year, their "marketing, promotional and advertising" spend was $27m, which is effectively nothing. The majority of that was for promotional activities and press events with $0 spent on advertising. Their entire marketing department at HQ is all of 25 people. That's about the size of most marketing departments at a B2B startup with 500 employees.

If Tesla is putting any effort into this whole marketing thing...they sure do suck at it.
Your comments speak to their marketing investment, but you're responding to a post about Tesla's marketing effectiveness. If their investment is as modest as you state, then their effectiveness is all the more impressive.
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      02-28-2020, 09:31 PM   #3339
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With support of fanboys and dedicated teslavangelist sites there is no need for traditional marketing. These faithful worshipper espouse all things positive blindly. To the point of internal infighting within the EV proponents. It is becoming Tesla vs other EVs.

Don't forget the Twitter attention grabbing Elon.
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      02-28-2020, 09:33 PM   #3340
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LOL. Really?



Your point?
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      02-28-2020, 09:40 PM   #3341
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FC4 View Post
I'm pretty sure the sentiment was the same when horses were being phased out...
Horses have been phased out of traditional utilitarian beasts of burden and have now shifted to the toys and pleasure of the rich.

Likewise with ICE vehicles..... That M2C, Miata, VW Golf even a lowly AMC Pacer will prized possessions. Demolition Man comes to mind.
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      02-28-2020, 09:46 PM   #3342
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I'm pretty sure the sentiment was the same when horses were being phased out...
I'm pretty sure the sentiment was not the same when horses were being phased out. Where'd you get that idea?

Honestly, I'm all for the auto industry developing a better mousetrap. What I'm against government bureaucracies putting their thumbs on the scale of the free market to the point that they're mandating a complete overhaul of the auto industry.

The government didn't provide tax-payer funded financial incentives to push people to automobiles and regulate everyone from using horse and carriages. THAT is the difference.
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      02-29-2020, 01:29 PM   #3343
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I'm pretty sure the sentiment was not the same when horses were being phased out. Where'd you get that idea
I don't know what sentiment we're talking about, but this was pretty much it:
"[horses are not only] self-feeding, self-controlling, self-maintaining and self-reproducing, but they are far more economical in the energy they are able to develop from a given weight of fuel material, than any other existing form of motor." -- Robert Thurston, US steam engine expert, 1894
Sounds like the BEV vs ICE energy density arguments, huh? or
The notion that electric vehicles, or vehicles of any other kind, will be able to compete with railroad trains for long-distance traffic is visionary to the point of lunacy. The fool who hatched out this latest motor canard was conscience-stricken enough to add that the whole matter was still in an exceedingly hazy state. But,if it ever emerges from the nebulous state,it will be in a world where natural laws are all turned topsy-turvy, and time and space are no more. Were it not for the surprising persistence of this delusion, the yarn would not be worthy of notice. --- E.P. Ingersoll, transportation reporter, 1899
And before there was Ford vs Ferrari there was Ford vs Winton:
Another thing we had to do which no president or executive of an automobile company of today would think of doing was to compete against each other on race tracks. Duryea, Walter C. White, Ford — we all used to race. That is how we attracted attention to our products. The public looked upon racing as a test of an automobile’s worth, and to a great extent it guided its buying habits by the results of the contests.

Ford got his first big reputation when he raced me at the Grosse Pointe track in Detroit. The day was October 10, 1901. Prior to that time Ford was little known. The first mention of him in connection with the motor industry, so far as I have been able to find, was in a small item in an issue of The Horseless Age, printed in 1898. It read: “Henry Ford, of Detroit, Michigan, chief engineer of the Edison Electric Company of that city, has built a number of gasoline vehicles which are said to have been successfully operated. He is reported to be financially supported by several prominent men of the city who intend to manufacture the Ford vehicle. From Mr. Ford himself no information can be gleaned regarding his vehicle or his plans for manufacture.”

For some time prior to 1901, I had been the dirt-track champion driver, and when I received a challenge to race Ford in Detroit I accepted. A number of cars started, but the event soon narrowed into a test between my car and Ford’s. The Detroit News, on the day following the race, described the event: “Winton took the lead at the start and held it easily for five miles. Then the Detroit car began to creep up, and right in front of the grandstand, on the seventh lap, Ford forged ahead. Winton seemed to lose his power. His great car began to smoke and he was out of the race.”

Ford won, of course, and in winning, attracted national attention. Afterward he said, “Put Winton in my car and he’ll beat anything in this country.”

I told him I’d put myself back in my own car and beat him any time he came on the track.

The following day he announced: “I will never again be seen in a race.” Nor was he.
-- Alexander Winton, 1930
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-29-2020, 07:33 PM   #3344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FC4 View Post
I'm pretty sure the sentiment was the same when horses were being phased out...
I'm pretty sure the sentiment was not the same when horses were being phased out. Where'd you get that idea?

Honestly, I'm all for the auto industry developing a better mousetrap. What I'm against government bureaucracies putting their thumbs on the scale of the free market to the point that they're mandating a complete overhaul of the auto industry.

The government didn't provide tax-payer funded financial incentives to push people to automobiles and regulate everyone from using horse and carriages. THAT is the difference.
They do it for agriculture.... are you against that too? Shit. I feel like I just posted this just a few days so. Yet the same arguments keep getting made.
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