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      03-29-2020, 10:37 PM   #3213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Maybe I am just an optimist but I don't think we are passing 40k with the mitigation. I agree that the bigger cities will surge, but a lot of this country won't have anywhere near the effect.

Washington state right now looks pretty good, they are stabilized and never had huge hits like we see in NY or NJ.
We have just shy of 2500 deaths as of this second and we are on the rising part of the mortality curve everywhere still, so I really don't see how that's going to happen. I hope you are right.



Some good info:

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-595/

Dr. Daniel Griffin gives an update from the trenches with some info you will not find through normal outlets in terms of current treatments, testing, and outcomes.
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      03-29-2020, 11:03 PM   #3214
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
BTW if anyone wants decent, non-stale coffee during lockdown, I recommend the Illy metal canned whole beans. All other packaged coffee without a roast date is nearly guaranteed to be stale. Illy cans it with slightly pressurized nitrogen which means it's acceptably decent for a very long time. It seems to go stale faster once opened than real freshly-roasted coffee beans, but it's not bad for pandemic coffee.
Barrington Coffee is my answer. They ship the day they roast, FedEx gets it to me two days later.
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      03-29-2020, 11:04 PM   #3215
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Originally Posted by Dagamus_NM View Post
Looks like Brazil has decided to actively attempt to have the worst CV19 catastrophe on the planet.

Bolsonaro believes (or at least claims) that the Brazilian people have some of natural immunity and that combined with their tropical climate will make this virus skip Brazil.

My money was on India performing the worst through this, but now I am having second thoughts.
Belarus is competing with that hard.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...virus-11965396
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      03-29-2020, 11:17 PM   #3216
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
Barrington Coffee is my answer. They ship the day they roast, FedEx gets it to me two days later.
They still operating? I figured most roasters would close. I guess "essential" can be interpreted many ways.
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      03-29-2020, 11:17 PM   #3217
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Lol. Are you donating your $400,000 salary to the Government every year. And is your wife as attractive as Melania?
These two questions are all you could come up with? That's weaksauce. Let me help you (maybe the opportunity is lost with me but you can always use these when someone else is disrespecting the President).

Have you ever declared bankrupcy?
How many tenants have you kicked out of your properties? (As a good follow-up: what? you never owned rental properties of any size?)
How many wives have you had? (Anything below three is certain evidence you're dealing with a loser.)
Did you wife ever pose for Playboy?
How much do you weigh? (200lbs is a C, 220lbs is a B, the opponent gets an A at 240lbs or more.)
Do you cheat at golf and get away with it?

Hope that helps!
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      03-29-2020, 11:18 PM   #3218
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
They still operating? I figured most roasters would close. I guess "essential" can be interpreted many ways.
Checked the site before posting - the answer is yes.

(I used to work right next to one of their brick and mortar stores - it literally made me look for other jobs less because I couldn't imagine not having their coffee during the day.)
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      03-29-2020, 11:20 PM   #3219
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Thanks. Another ignore
I hope that echo chamber has good acoustics.
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      03-29-2020, 11:23 PM   #3220
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I thought this was very interesting:

https://apnews.com/c346402f4a0ef8796c6eb0afebe342f4

The sudden rise in the number of virus cases in Tokyo and the government's strong actions immediately after the Olympic postponement have raised questions in parliament and among citizens about whether Japan understated the extent of the outbreak and delayed enforcement of social distancing measures while clinging to hopes that the games would start on July 24 as scheduled.
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      03-29-2020, 11:42 PM   #3221
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50 vaccine candidates total. Two in Phase I, the rest pre-clinical.

https://www.who.int/blueprint/priori...h2020.PDF?ua=1

In terms of US vaccines, the Moderna vaccine is the most likely to be ready first, if everything goes well.

The Chinese vaccine is the only other one in Phase I. I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes used in China well before any US Phase III starts if they are willing to do things we consider unethical. I wonder if it will work because a lot of the population already have circulating antibodies to the vector.
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      03-29-2020, 11:59 PM   #3222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NormanConquest View Post
My current calculation projected numbers in USA after 2 years if no major mutation occurs
196,320,000 infected
5,889,600 pass away
death rate 3%

Current estimated infection
Infection 264,317
death 2479
recover 124,897
current death rate 1.9
open cases 52.8
You will be way way way way off on your prediction. If I am wrong and alive I will gladly come here and eat my crow. Most likely if I still have internet and a home I will be an emotional wreck but I will make sure I find a way to tell you that you were a great predictor.
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      03-30-2020, 12:27 AM   #3223
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Originally Posted by Nuckle View Post
You will be way way way way off on your prediction. If I am wrong and alive I will gladly come here and eat my crow. Most likely if I still have internet and a home I will be an emotional wreck but I will make sure I find a way to tell you that you were a great predictor.
Even I don't think his numbers are even close to right. They might be if we did absolutely nothing and pretended it didn't exist.
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      03-30-2020, 12:47 AM   #3224
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Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
What do you think the number of deaths would be if we didn't take any steps to mitigate spread? You know, the things you were railing against earlier as MSM scare tactics.
We still have no clue, but I am sticking to my original guess of 80k-150k. The two million number Trump was stating today was already debunked, he was just trying to make himself look better.
Ballpark figures (provisional) for the US based on the current situation (measures imposed) according to Dr. Anthony Fauci: millions infected and somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths (see here).

Without measures to limit the spread or without observing those measures: please, no.

In the end, if you or a loved one is in imminent danger to become part of the COVID-19 death statistics, you won't care anymore about predictions, percentages, figures, dollars or the economy. All you'll be interested in: either survival or the ultimate sacrifice to (hopefully) save another patient's life. And there's a significant chance that doctors will make that choice for you, based on triage protocols.
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      03-30-2020, 01:11 AM   #3225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nuckle View Post
You will be way way way way off on your prediction. If I am wrong and alive I will gladly come here and eat my crow. Most likely if I still have internet and a home I will be an emotional wreck but I will make sure I find a way to tell you that you were a great predictor.
Even I don't think his numbers are even close to right. They might be if we did absolutely nothing and pretended it didn't exist.
I am curious if Norman believes his numbers? I hope not.
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      03-30-2020, 01:23 AM   #3226
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Apart from "the ultimate driving machine", also "the ultimate breathing machine" exists.

And apparently some wealthy folks are on the hunt to get one.
Super-rich people are panicking over the coronavirus ventilator shortage
By Dana Kennedy | March 21, 2020 | 2:19pm | New York Post (here)
Forget Birkin bags, Botox shots or Brazilian butt lifts. The sought-after accessory for the ultra-rich these days is anything that guarantees them oxygen should they get hit by the coronavirus.
Brother, can you spare a ventilator? Or, how much is that nebulizer in the window? But how to get one? Especially the ultimate breathing machine, the ECMO.
Reports of old people being refused the dwindling supply of ventilators in the coronavirus catastrophe engulfing northern Italy are making high-net-worth types in the US panic.
At least 950,000 coronavirus patients in the US could need ventilators, according to the Society of Critical Care Medicine, but hospitals here have just 160,000. Between five to 10 companies in the world supply most of the planet’s breathing machines and they weren’t ready for this.
President Donald Trump said testily at a recent press conference that he was ordering “a lot” of ventilators although he was vague on the details. Trump has invoked the wartime Defense Production Act of 1950 to ramp up production of ventilators and hospital masks.
But it may be too little too late.
Thomas Herbert, a ventilator salesman in the New York area for 35 years, said that GE Healthcare, where he works, and some of the big global ventilator companies got caught without nearly enough stock when the virus hit.
Herbert said GE got 2,500 orders for ventilators for Italy and other parts of Europe and shipped them there before the outbreak caused demand in the US to kick in.
“You go where it’s worst first,” Herbert said. A spokesman for Medtronic in Minneapolis, one of the world’s biggest ventilator makers, said the company had “contributed” machines to China in February.
Daniele Macchini, a doctor at a hospital in Bergamo, Lombardy, the region in northern Italy with skyrocketing coronavirus cases wrote recently that the “tsunami” of 4,400 patients means “every ventilator becomes like gold.”
As a result, the wealthy in the US are calling both their doctors and ventilator manufacturers hoping to get a machine on demand. They’re even trolling the dark web to no avail as they face an uncomfortable truth: Money can’t buy something that’s not there.
Ventilators cost only about $35,000, peanuts to the elites. But because the US healthcare industry is about making money, no one heeded warnings going back more than a decade that the country should stockpile the machines.
“Hospitals in America are all about trying to be profitable, they’re not about being prepared for a disaster,” says Dr. Tim Kruse, who makes house calls in Aspen for his billionaire patients who are fretting about getting a ventilator if they need one. “Having a bunch of ventilators sitting around in storage affects their bottom line.”
Top “medical concierges” like Manhattan’s Dr. Ronald Primas (Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump’s rumored doctor) said they’ve had to tell some well-heeled patients that no, they can’t build their own ICUs in their Hamptons homes – never mind order a ventilator as if it were a pizza delivery from Doordash.
“There’s a lot of hysteria going on and I can understand their fears,” Dr. Primas said. “I tell them that not everyone will need a ventilator, that there are other airway devices that might be available but a lot of my patients are still scared.”
People are even calling engineers feverishly working on 3-D printed ventilators — but no dice.
Clarence Graansma, a Canadian biomedical technologist at Qidni Labs in Ontario, is part of a global group working on open-source makeshift ventilator designed to be constructed with, say, vacuum cleaner motors, if supply chains become totally shot.
“I’ve gotten calls from people with obviously a lot of money saying, please make me one,” Graansma said. “I say no. That’s not why I’m doing this. We’re trying to rush these ideas out for all the people in crisis. When you’re very sick, your lungs get really stiff. Those are the people who need us.”
Some of the most hopeful reports come from smaller ventilator companies like Ventec Life Systems in Seattle; or Vyaire, which has a manufacturing plant in Palm Springs.
Ventec’s Chris Kiple has become a media darling over the last week as he works the phones from 5 a.m. to midnight getting help to build the company’s unique all-in-one multi-function ventilators.
“The government and hospitals are calling nonstop,” said a spokesman for Kiple. “We just hope we can get enough out there to help people.”
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      03-30-2020, 01:27 AM   #3227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artemis View Post
Apart from "the ultimate driving machine", also "the ultimate breathing machine" exists.

And apparently some wealthy folks are on the hunt to get one.
Super-rich people are panicking over the coronavirus ventilator shortage
By Dana Kennedy | March 21, 2020 | 2:19pm | New York Post (here)
Forget Birkin bags, Botox shots or Brazilian butt lifts. The sought-after accessory for the ultra-rich these days is anything that guarantees them oxygen should they get hit by the coronavirus.
Brother, can you spare a ventilator? Or, how much is that nebulizer in the window? But how to get one? Especially the ultimate breathing machine, the ECMO.
Reports of old people being refused the dwindling supply of ventilators in the coronavirus catastrophe engulfing northern Italy are making high-net-worth types in the US panic.
At least 950,000 coronavirus patients in the US could need ventilators, according to the Society of Critical Care Medicine, but hospitals here have just 160,000. Between five to 10 companies in the world supply most of the planet’s breathing machines and they weren’t ready for this.
President Donald Trump said testily at a recent press conference that he was ordering “a lot” of ventilators although he was vague on the details. Trump has invoked the wartime Defense Production Act of 1950 to ramp up production of ventilators and hospital masks.
But it may be too little too late.
Thomas Herbert, a ventilator salesman in the New York area for 35 years, said that GE Healthcare, where he works, and some of the big global ventilator companies got caught without nearly enough stock when the virus hit.
Herbert said GE got 2,500 orders for ventilators for Italy and other parts of Europe and shipped them there before the outbreak caused demand in the US to kick in.
“You go where it’s worst first,” Herbert said. A spokesman for Medtronic in Minneapolis, one of the world’s biggest ventilator makers, said the company had “contributed” machines to China in February.
Daniele Macchini, a doctor at a hospital in Bergamo, Lombardy, the region in northern Italy with skyrocketing coronavirus cases wrote recently that the “tsunami” of 4,400 patients means “every ventilator becomes like gold.”
As a result, the wealthy in the US are calling both their doctors and ventilator manufacturers hoping to get a machine on demand. They’re even trolling the dark web to no avail as they face an uncomfortable truth: Money can’t buy something that’s not there.
Ventilators cost only about $35,000, peanuts to the elites. But because the US healthcare industry is about making money, no one heeded warnings going back more than a decade that the country should stockpile the machines.
“Hospitals in America are all about trying to be profitable, they’re not about being prepared for a disaster,” says Dr. Tim Kruse, who makes house calls in Aspen for his billionaire patients who are fretting about getting a ventilator if they need one. “Having a bunch of ventilators sitting around in storage affects their bottom line.”
Top “medical concierges” like Manhattan’s Dr. Ronald Primas (Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump’s rumored doctor) said they’ve had to tell some well-heeled patients that no, they can’t build their own ICUs in their Hamptons homes – never mind order a ventilator as if it were a pizza delivery from Doordash.
“There’s a lot of hysteria going on and I can understand their fears,” Dr. Primas said. “I tell them that not everyone will need a ventilator, that there are other airway devices that might be available but a lot of my patients are still scared.”
People are even calling engineers feverishly working on 3-D printed ventilators — but no dice.
Clarence Graansma, a Canadian biomedical technologist at Qidni Labs in Ontario, is part of a global group working on open-source makeshift ventilator designed to be constructed with, say, vacuum cleaner motors, if supply chains become totally shot.
“I’ve gotten calls from people with obviously a lot of money saying, please make me one,” Graansma said. “I say no. That’s not why I’m doing this. We’re trying to rush these ideas out for all the people in crisis. When you’re very sick, your lungs get really stiff. Those are the people who need us.”
Some of the most hopeful reports come from smaller ventilator companies like Ventec Life Systems in Seattle; or Vyaire, which has a manufacturing plant in Palm Springs.
Ventec’s Chris Kiple has become a media darling over the last week as he works the phones from 5 a.m. to midnight getting help to build the company’s unique all-in-one multi-function ventilators.
“The government and hospitals are calling nonstop,” said a spokesman for Kiple. “We just hope we can get enough out there to help people.”
Yeah, you really don't wanna be on ECMO, or even a ventilator if you can help it. If I were a billionaire I would focus my efforts on bribing Gilead employees until I was able to get some remdesivir and have it ready-to-infuse at the first sign of illness. If you can take care of the virus early you will not proceed to respiratory distress. The current mortality rate for patients on ventilators has been estimated to be near or over 50% from one source I saw.
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      03-30-2020, 03:05 AM   #3228
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if you're a billionaire/elite..... the best solution is to cut you and your family off from all in person social contact, stay at home, and cook your own food.

or just get the whole family infected now. if you need a vent/ecmo buy one and have a personal icu doctor on hand. and ride it out. once you recover you're immune and can roam free in society
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      03-30-2020, 04:19 AM   #3229
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After speaking to my dad who is a doctor I'm pretty sure I've already had this thing. I am early 20's and healthy and about 2 weeks ago had a minor swollen lymph node in neck and dry throat for a few days. I felt fine, didn't even think anything of it. He is working on getting us test kits.

Had a bunch of friends with similar symptoms mid January after winter break. People need to get back to work, this is getting ridiculous.
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      03-30-2020, 07:46 AM   #3230
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Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
Great post. It’s a shitty Chinese bioweapon that’s not even very effective. Overall death rate is incredibly low, and in the grand scheme of things the deaths are minuscule. This is complete insanity how it’s being handled. I cannot believe how fast so many paranoid delusional people are willing to give up everything for a basically 0.0001% they’ll die from this crap.
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
The scientific publication debunking the 'bioweapon' theory also got published in Nature Medicine: see here.

Scientific findings about the source and evolution of the spread (genomic epidemiology - 1893 genomes sampled between Dec 2019 and Mar 2020): see here (click the 'play' button to show the chronology/evolution) and here ("Genomic analysis of COVID-19 spread. Situation report 2020-03-20"). See also here (Swiss) ("No room for conspiracy theories: the coronavirus family tree reveals where it comes from").

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      03-30-2020, 08:16 AM   #3231
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Maybe I am just an optimist but I don't think we are passing 40k with the mitigation. I agree that the bigger cities will surge, but a lot of this country won't have anywhere near the effect.

Washington state right now looks pretty good, they are stabilized and never had huge hits like we see in NY or NJ.
Soooo, time to hit the beach?!
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      03-30-2020, 08:23 AM   #3232
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Soooo, time to hit the beach?!
What's the news like in Washington? Are hospitals still overrun? They seem to be weathering the storm pretty well.
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      03-30-2020, 08:23 AM   #3233
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Soooo, time to hit the beach?!
F the beach........I am going to the gym
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      03-30-2020, 08:33 AM   #3234
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What's the news like in Washington? Are hospitals still overrun? They seem to be weathering the storm pretty well.
Extremely busy from the folks I've spoken with who work in the hospital system. But not overrun. PPD shortages still an issue but that seems to be easing. The "Stay Home Stay Safe" initiative seems to be working. Streets are far from empty but I'd guesstimate traffic is down by 70% to 80%. Sunny yesterday and TONS of folks outside in the neighborhood but all being very cautious. Lots of families playing with kids and the dog in their yard. Couples out for a walk but staying far from others. Went to Trader Joes on Saturday and they had us queue up in a line, 6 feet apart, and only allowed about 10 people in the store at any time. Very well coordinated and run. People were pleasant and took it in stride. Had to go to Ace to pick up a replacement toilet valve. They had installed plexiglass panels in front of the cashiers. They had you present each items barcode for scanning and take your own receipt. No cash accepted. Basically the cashier touched nothing during the transaction other than her scanner and her register. Pretty slick.
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