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      02-11-2020, 11:55 AM   #3235
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It's been a pretty rough couple of months for the Tesla hater/political activists G-dawg is here to !

There's an emerging millennial Tesla/Big Oil hedge this month! (could be Tesla blowback too - Tesla haters diving in)
The numbers are much smaller of course, but it'd be hard to say it's not an emerging trend, even if small. Using Robinhood data as a proxy for millennial investing, here's what's happening:

(1.) In the last month Big Oil stocks are getting a sharp uptick in millenial holding

Chevron is growing up to ~8,000 users this week:



BP is next with a jump to ~15,000 users this week:



Exxon appears to be the millenial Big Oil darling at ~24,000 users this week:




(2.) GM and Ford are also seeing a small but growing Tesla hedge
GM with ~38,000 users



and Ford - the kids like Ford! - Ford on the rise with a massive ~365,000 users and millennial investors buying the dip



It should be mentioned that millennial investors are known for liking the cheap household names, and Ford's recent nosedive makes it cheap

And - WAY more millenials own Ford than Tesla, with TSLA at ~155,000, and note the difference in Ford and Tesla buying behavior: Tesla is definitely FOMO with users matching price jumps versus Ford where they're buying the dip




(3.) The kids seem to consistently like Ford - going back to May 2018 we can see the steady increase in ownership mostly decoupled from price



Versus Tesla where there seemed to be a lot of excitement about the Model 3 and then a bolus of millennials bailing just before the jump ... and then buying back in with an equal level of excitement:



The way I'd read this is that Ford has a real chance with the Mach-E, but it's gotta be somewhat close in features to Tesla (I think it looks 1000% better), and there's also a recognition that the World will still need oil, although the numbers there are tiny compared to Tesla and Ford.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      02-12-2020, 03:56 PM   #3236
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Follow up to his video that many said he left out a bunch of variables when doing the ICE vs EV comparison:

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      02-13-2020, 05:09 AM   #3237
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Follow up to his video that many said he left out a bunch of variables when doing the ICE vs EV comparison:

This was really good and I'm going to opine that OTR trucks will be eventually be powered via diese/gas--electric (think trains) rather than battery alone.
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      02-13-2020, 07:14 AM   #3238
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This was really good and I'm going to opine that OTR trucks will be eventually be powered via diese/gas--electric (think trains) rather than battery alone.
Sort of an interesting thought, this is old tech really. Submarines have been powered this way since the second world war, a large number of ships follow this model as well.

Lots of instant torque and an idling diesel to power it. I might consider something like that if it was done right.
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      02-13-2020, 07:40 AM   #3239
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This was really good and I'm going to opine that OTR trucks will be eventually be powered via diese/gas--electric (think trains) rather than battery alone.
this was audi's plan about ten years ago. they wanted to proceed with a diesel hybrid but after "diesel-gate" they have disavowed diesel in the north american region for eternity. only "e-tron" and petrol-hybrid options in the future with the latter being phased out in the next five years or so (iirc). diesel hybrid in the vag portfolio are available in ROW/EU but we will never see any here.
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      02-13-2020, 08:50 AM   #3240
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Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
This was really good and I'm going to opine that OTR trucks will be eventually be powered via diese/gas--electric (think trains) rather than battery alone.
this was audi's plan about ten years ago. they wanted to proceed with a diesel hybrid but after "diesel-gate" they have disavowed diesel in the north american region for eternity. only "e-tron" and petrol-hybrid options in the future with the latter being phased out in the next five years or so (iirc). diesel hybrid in the vag portfolio are available in ROW/EU but we will never see any here.
I'm thinking more along the lines of an i3 where the motor charges the battery instead of the wheels. From an emissions perspective it's easier to design for one rpm rather than a range.

Did the VAG/Audi system power the wheels?
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      02-13-2020, 11:23 AM   #3241
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      02-13-2020, 07:27 PM   #3242
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Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
Sort of an interesting thought, this is old tech really. Submarines have been powered this way since the second world war, a large number of ships follow this model as well.
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Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
I'm thinking more along the lines of an i3 where the motor charges the battery instead of the wheels.
Yeah, Blue-water sailboats starting experimenting with this about 30 years ago: Either full electric (no genset) or a genset powering lithium powering engines for more luxe applications. The problem with electric sailing applications is, of course, that saltwater and electricity do NOT mix well! That said, with newer tech, it's getting easier and easier. Volvo Penta is going big, partnering with fountaine-pajot and unveiling a new e-drive system last fall:





And, sailboats get the benefit of wind and water turbines, as well as solar which has made huge tech leaps in the last 5 years. Seawind's new 1600 has 400 watts of solar panels as standard:



Anyway, I think we'll be seeing an explosion of electric tech in just about every kind of conveyance including aircraft as well as lots of micro-power home applications for people who want or need to be off-the-grid and make a little money at the same time.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-13-2020, 07:31 PM   #3243
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BTW, in Tesla news, they finally decided to work on their debt (which was double their cash) by releasing $2B more in shares thus diluting. they're only going 2% - not sure why, they shoulda gone the full 5% to pay off everything, but who knows, knowing Tesla they'll do something else entirely.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-13-2020, 07:54 PM   #3244
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So tesla pumps the market and sells shares right before the collapse?
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      02-13-2020, 11:54 PM   #3245
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So tesla pumps the market and sells shares right before the collapse?
Not sure what you're referring to ... millennials and institutional investors attempted to buy a ton of Tesla stock in dec/jan due to model 3 success, but there weren't many net-sellers - i.e., there's someone on the other side of every trade who will only sell if they get a higher price than what the current price is - thus the stock price rises, thus Tesla at $900.

Whenever a company's stock price rises, it gives them financial power to do stuff, in this case create more common stock (i.e., supply of shares), and use that capital for something; pay down debt, finance a battery factory in Texas (see below), etc. 2% is kinda peanuts (stock is up 5%!), they shoulda gone 5% but who the fuck am i?



Something to keep your Tesla-hater eyes open for: 2020Q1 European sales numbers ... cause 2 weeks ago Elon said TSLA wasn't going to raise capital (which was baffling because WTF wouldn't you when you're carrying the cash/debt of TSLA??) If those numbers aren't good, oh boy, it's gonna be anarchy!

In that scenario, TSLA craters below $300 and everyone goes medieval
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      02-14-2020, 05:58 AM   #3246
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Motor Mouth: Why worshopping Greta Thunberg is counterproductive


Solving the industry's carbon emissions issue takes rational and thoughtful planning, not teenage histrionics
by DAVID BOOTH | 4 HOURS AGO

https://driving.ca/features/feature-...nterproductive

This guy is an electrical engineer who has been writing for Driving.ca for years, he is a car enthusiast/automotive journalist and FTR he isn't anti EV, just applies his education and common sense.....an interesting read.


God save us all from First World guilt, that debilitating sense of entitlement that sees the reductive and hyper-sensitive trying to cow those less “‘woke” into compliant acquiescence. I’m talking rich politicians lamenting the inconvenient truths of global warming while consuming something like 20 times as much energy as the average American. Famous actors who conspicuously show up at Hollywood premieres in emission-free Teslas, only to insist on flying to every film location aboard private jets. And, of course, the ever-whining Joaquin Phoenix, who — after pleading his personal guilt at being “selfish,” “cruel,” and, this will surprise no one, “hard to work with,” at this year’s Oscars — announced that we should all stop “stealing” milk from baby cows just so we can “put it into our cereal and coffee.” Such is the sanctimony of the truly indulged: The world cannot be saved unless we forgo Natrel in our Nespressos.

Of course, the bazooka in the Loony Left’s armory is Greta Thunberg, climate change’s Joan of Arc. Invited to dine with potentates, speak before august governmental bodies and even, if speculation is to be believed, in line for a Nobel Prize, the 17-year-old environmental theologian has pretty much hijacked the entire climate change discussion.

Indeed, so wracked are Swedes now from Ms. Thunberg’s prognostications about eschewing modern aviation — she famously sailed to New York rather than take a plane — that they have taken to flight-shaming anyone daring to book a vacation not in their own backyard. Think that’s a joke? So common has the practice of guilting the jetset that the Swedes have given the practice a name — flygskam — and it has, according to the BBC, resulted in a decrease in air travel.

And that’s the problem with Ms. Thunberg’s dramatics; her followers really do mistake histrionic symbolism for actual policy. What once might have been a canary-in-a-coal-mine ploy to force the truly reactionary to the bargaining table is now seen as legitimate alternative. Mankind spent the last 300,000 years advancing to where we now have the freedom to travel across the Atlantic in mere hours. Thanks to Greta, millions seem to believe it perfectly practical that we turn the clock back to 1492 and take the Santa Maria instead.

And politicians are taking heed. I don’t think anyone here will mistake Boris Johnson, the UK’s newly elected prime minister, as progressive or particularly environmentally conscious. But he is, in the purest sense of the word, a true-blue, give-the-whiniest-voices-what-they-want populist. So, just last week, his Conservative government decided to advance Britain’s automobile electrification plan by five years to 2035.

Now, some might cheer his boldness, no matter the cynicism of his motivation. Anything to advance the cause, as it were. But Johnson’s trademark recklessness might yet be the electric vehicle’s Waterloo because, not only did the tousled hair one — seriously, it’s one thing to take political pointers from The Donald, but does he have to take grooming advice, too — propose banning traditional ICE-powered automobiles, but also hybrids. Yes, with any form of gasoline motivation forbidden and fuel cell vehicles all but stillborn, the only cars for sale in the UK come 2035 will be Elon Musk’s cherished battery-powered EVs.

To fans of the electric car, this may sound like Nirvana: The infernal-combustion engine will finally be no more. But what are the consequences of such a seemingly from-the-hip prognostication? How will the UK cope with such a radical transformation?

Well, besides the massive incentivization required to reach that ambitious goal, this is the most startling statistic the hyper-progressive climate changer will have to ignore: According to the UK’s current plan of being carbon-neutral by 2050 — which, considering the lifespan of the modern car, will be just about when the last petrol-fueled cars will be off the road — accommodating that many EVs will require some 25.3 million charging stations, both home and remote. That would, says the Telegraph, require installing some 4,000 new chargers — all, no doubt, with yet more government subsidization — every day for the next 30 years. I’ll leave it to you to try to contemplate the cost; my calculator doesn’t go that high.

More importantly, what if the rest of the world — Norway and the Netherlands have already promised earlier bans — were to follow suit? Exactly what does a completely battery-powered auto industry look like?

Well, the first thing will be finding enough automakers to produce 80 million battery-powered cars. Champion Tesla’s recent success all you like, but just getting to 500,000 cars built a year has been a long, drawn out affair that sucked up untold billions in investments, loans and subsidies to get to — God help me, maybe I will buy TSLA at $800 a share — two incredible quarters of profitability.

But forget, as radical greenies do, the investment needed to produce so many EVs. Ignore even that sourcing that much lithium, as per Toyota, will be very difficult. The real calamity is that pushing for such early adoption might be the demise of legacy automakers.

Tesla survives mostly grace to the largesse of Wall Street which, thanks to low interest rates, has cash to burn and no place to put it. Besides, Tesla, as per Elon Musk’s telling, was never much concerned about profitability. Neither, judging by its recent pricing promises, is Rivian. Any shortfall in sales or profit margin is simply made up by scurrying back to investors.

Legacy automakers have no such luxury. Yes, both management and shareholders want them to modernize, but insist they do so while returning a healthy return on investment. EVs are loss leaders for both the near- and medium-term, so without the stock market bailing them out seemingly every second quarter, traditional automakers have no choice but to fund their electrification programs with the profits generated by selling traditional — that should be read gasoline-powered — automobiles. Listen to the automakers, and with the exception of Toyota and perhaps Volkswagen, no matter how committed they are to electrification, there’s no way they can generate enough profit selling ICEs for just the next 15 years to pay for the development of an all-BEV product portfolio.

So, who would benefit from this demise of the traditional automakers? Well, certainly the disruptors — Tesla and Rivian, et al — certainly stand to gain market share. But not even the most generous of wealthy hedge funds can come up with enough money to ramp up that much EV production that fast.

However, there is a huge, state-run economy out there that would love to step in, already has a plan to force its citizens to go all BEV, has no shame in tilting markets with corporate subsidization and also suffers from, shall we call it, a mild case of kleptocracy when it comes to acquiring the technology required to export its business. But, hey, who are we to say China shouldn’t have the lion’s share of the future’s automobile production?

Now I hear you already: Blaming Greta for China taking over the world’s car industry is a little too paranoid and polemic for you. Frankly, me too. But how is an air-head actor protesting that we all need to give up putting milk in our cereal and/or a teenaged activist promoting sailing as a viable alternative to air travel any less crazy?

That’s why I want to make this absolutely crystal clear: This rant — and that is certainly what it has turned into — is not about denying a need to reduce our carbon footprint. Electrification — be it battery, fuel-cell or PHEV-powered — will be a huge, if not overwhelming, motivator of future mobility. It certainly isn’t — as so many try to belittle — an old man’s fear of change: I can’t wait to drive the battery/fuel cell hybrid that I believe will be the ultimate salvation of the automotive industry. It is not even — and this to me is the saddest part of this story — because making prophets out of teenaged girls is positively medieval.

It’s because childish theatrics influence stupid politicians to make bad decisions. We need to do better.
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      02-14-2020, 08:42 AM   #3247
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great article

couple across the road are in their 70s
they came for dinner last friday and talked at length about climate change and how the world is on the brink
and how they sold their diesel car and bought a hybrid for environmental reasons as theyhave grandkids(i have a 335d and f15 x5 30d and found that boasty/preachy).
Also chat about 'we had a lovely time time in florida 3 months ago lovely time in tenerife 2 months ago and as they were leaving
'can you put our bins out for us from next week on we are going on a cruise to austrslia/New Zealand'!
Lots of UK pensioners and policymakers are like the above people hence its a bit fucked up.
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      02-14-2020, 08:50 AM   #3248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
great article

couple across the road are in their 70s
they came for dinner last friday and talked at length about climate change and how the world is on the brink
and how they sold their diesel car and bought a hybrid for environmental reasons as theyhave grandkids(i have a 335d and f15 x5 30d and found that boasty/preachy).
Also chat about 'we had a lovely time time in florida 3 months ago lovely time in tenerife 2 months ago and as they were leaving
'can you put our bins out for us from next week on we are going on a cruise to austrslia/New Zealand'!
Lots of UK pensioners and policymakers are like the above people hence its a bit fucked up.
I don't know how Scotland produced it's electricity but the idea of driving an EV that is powered by coal fired or natural gas fired power generation seems a bit stupid to me.
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      02-14-2020, 09:16 AM   #3249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
[SIZE="4"]
Motor Mouth: Why worshopping Greta Thunberg is counterproductive
[/SIZE]

Solving the industry's carbon emissions issue takes rational and thoughtful planning, not teenage histrionics
by DAVID BOOTH | 4 HOURS AGO

https://driving.ca/features/feature-...nterproductive

This guy is an electrical engineer who has been writing for Driving.ca for years, he is a car enthusiast/automotive journalist and FTR he isn't anti EV, just applies his education and common sense.....an interesting read.


God save us all from First World guilt, that debilitating sense of entitlement that sees the reductive and hyper-sensitive trying to cow those less “‘woke” into compliant acquiescence. I’m talking rich politicians lamenting the inconvenient truths of global warming while consuming something like 20 times as much energy as the average American. Famous actors who conspicuously show up at Hollywood premieres in emission-free Teslas, only to insist on flying to every film location aboard private jets. And, of course, the ever-whining Joaquin Phoenix, who — after pleading his personal guilt at being “selfish,” “cruel,” and, this will surprise no one, “hard to work with,” at this year’s Oscars — announced that we should all stop “stealing” milk from baby cows just so we can “put it into our cereal and coffee.” Such is the sanctimony of the truly indulged: The world cannot be saved unless we forgo Natrel in our Nespressos.

Of course, the bazooka in the Loony Left’s armory is Greta Thunberg, climate change’s Joan of Arc. Invited to dine with potentates, speak before august governmental bodies and even, if speculation is to be believed, in line for a Nobel Prize, the 17-year-old environmental theologian has pretty much hijacked the entire climate change discussion.

Indeed, so wracked are Swedes now from Ms. Thunberg’s prognostications about eschewing modern aviation — she famously sailed to New York rather than take a plane — that they have taken to flight-shaming anyone daring to book a vacation not in their own backyard. Think that’s a joke? So common has the practice of guilting the jetset that the Swedes have given the practice a name — flygskam — and it has, according to the BBC, resulted in a decrease in air travel.

And that’s the problem with Ms. Thunberg’s dramatics; her followers really do mistake histrionic symbolism for actual policy. What once might have been a canary-in-a-coal-mine ploy to force the truly reactionary to the bargaining table is now seen as legitimate alternative. Mankind spent the last 300,000 years advancing to where we now have the freedom to travel across the Atlantic in mere hours. Thanks to Greta, millions seem to believe it perfectly practical that we turn the clock back to 1492 and take the Santa Maria instead.

And politicians are taking heed. I don’t think anyone here will mistake Boris Johnson, the UK’s newly elected prime minister, as progressive or particularly environmentally conscious. But he is, in the purest sense of the word, a true-blue, give-the-whiniest-voices-what-they-want populist. So, just last week, his Conservative government decided to advance Britain’s automobile electrification plan by five years to 2035.

Now, some might cheer his boldness, no matter the cynicism of his motivation. Anything to advance the cause, as it were. But Johnson’s trademark recklessness might yet be the electric vehicle’s Waterloo because, not only did the tousled hair one — seriously, it’s one thing to take political pointers from The Donald, but does he have to take grooming advice, too — propose banning traditional ICE-powered automobiles, but also hybrids. Yes, with any form of gasoline motivation forbidden and fuel cell vehicles all but stillborn, the only cars for sale in the UK come 2035 will be Elon Musk’s cherished battery-powered EVs.

To fans of the electric car, this may sound like Nirvana: The infernal-combustion engine will finally be no more. But what are the consequences of such a seemingly from-the-hip prognostication? How will the UK cope with such a radical transformation?

Well, besides the massive incentivization required to reach that ambitious goal, this is the most startling statistic the hyper-progressive climate changer will have to ignore: According to the UK’s current plan of being carbon-neutral by 2050 — which, considering the lifespan of the modern car, will be just about when the last petrol-fueled cars will be off the road — accommodating that many EVs will require some 25.3 million charging stations, both home and remote. That would, says the Telegraph, require installing some 4,000 new chargers — all, no doubt, with yet more government subsidization — every day for the next 30 years. I’ll leave it to you to try to contemplate the cost; my calculator doesn’t go that high.

More importantly, what if the rest of the world — Norway and the Netherlands have already promised earlier bans — were to follow suit? Exactly what does a completely battery-powered auto industry look like?

Well, the first thing will be finding enough automakers to produce 80 million battery-powered cars. Champion Tesla’s recent success all you like, but just getting to 500,000 cars built a year has been a long, drawn out affair that sucked up untold billions in investments, loans and subsidies to get to — God help me, maybe I will buy TSLA at $800 a share — two incredible quarters of profitability.

But forget, as radical greenies do, the investment needed to produce so many EVs. Ignore even that sourcing that much lithium, as per Toyota, will be very difficult. The real calamity is that pushing for such early adoption might be the demise of legacy automakers.

Tesla survives mostly grace to the largesse of Wall Street which, thanks to low interest rates, has cash to burn and no place to put it. Besides, Tesla, as per Elon Musk’s telling, was never much concerned about profitability. Neither, judging by its recent pricing promises, is Rivian. Any shortfall in sales or profit margin is simply made up by scurrying back to investors.

Legacy automakers have no such luxury. Yes, both management and shareholders want them to modernize, but insist they do so while returning a healthy return on investment. EVs are loss leaders for both the near- and medium-term, so without the stock market bailing them out seemingly every second quarter, traditional automakers have no choice but to fund their electrification programs with the profits generated by selling traditional — that should be read gasoline-powered — automobiles. Listen to the automakers, and with the exception of Toyota and perhaps Volkswagen, no matter how committed they are to electrification, there’s no way they can generate enough profit selling ICEs for just the next 15 years to pay for the development of an all-BEV product portfolio.

So, who would benefit from this demise of the traditional automakers? Well, certainly the disruptors — Tesla and Rivian, et al — certainly stand to gain market share. But not even the most generous of wealthy hedge funds can come up with enough money to ramp up that much EV production that fast.

However, there is a huge, state-run economy out there that would love to step in, already has a plan to force its citizens to go all BEV, has no shame in tilting markets with corporate subsidization and also suffers from, shall we call it, a mild case of kleptocracy when it comes to acquiring the technology required to export its business. But, hey, who are we to say China shouldn’t have the lion’s share of the future’s automobile production?

Now I hear you already: Blaming Greta for China taking over the world’s car industry is a little too paranoid and polemic for you. Frankly, me too. But how is an air-head actor protesting that we all need to give up putting milk in our cereal and/or a teenaged activist promoting sailing as a viable alternative to air travel any less crazy?

That’s why I want to make this absolutely crystal clear: This rant — and that is certainly what it has turned into — is not about denying a need to reduce our carbon footprint. Electrification — be it battery, fuel-cell or PHEV-powered — will be a huge, if not overwhelming, motivator of future mobility. It certainly isn’t — as so many try to belittle — an old man’s fear of change: I can’t wait to drive the battery/fuel cell hybrid that I believe will be the ultimate salvation of the automotive industry. It is not even — and this to me is the saddest part of this story — because making prophets out of teenaged girls is positively medieval.

It’s because childish theatrics influence stupid politicians to make bad decisions. We need to do better.
I have no opinion of Greta but thoroughly despise her parents.
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      02-14-2020, 09:45 AM   #3250
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Not sure what you're referring to ... millennials and institutional investors attempted to buy a ton of Tesla stock in dec/jan due to model 3 success, but there weren't many net-sellers - i.e., there's someone on the other side of every trade who will only sell if they get a higher price than what the current price is - thus the stock price rises, thus Tesla at $900.

Whenever a company's stock price rises, it gives them financial power to do stuff, in this case create more common stock (i.e., supply of shares), and use that capital for something; pay down debt, finance a battery factory in Texas (see below), etc. 2% is kinda peanuts (stock is up 5%!), they shoulda gone 5% but who the fuck am i?



Something to keep your Tesla-hater eyes open for: 2020Q1 European sales numbers ... cause 2 weeks ago Elon said TSLA wasn't going to raise capital (which was baffling because WTF wouldn't you when you're carrying the cash/debt of TSLA??) If those numbers aren't good, oh boy, it's gonna be anarchy!

In that scenario, TSLA craters below $300 and everyone goes medieval
How about long term habits of making promises that are faulty or unsubstantiated, using the information as a weapon to drum up interest, and now dumping stock presumably because the writing is on the wall that there is going to be a downturn with newvirus, or demand/accesability of Tesla cars once the US and world starts recession. Model Y to save the day!
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      02-14-2020, 08:05 PM   #3251
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Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
How about long term habits of making promises that are faulty or unsubstantiated, using the information as a weapon to drum up interest, and now dumping stock presumably because the writing is on the wall that there is going to be a downturn with newvirus, or demand/accesability of Tesla cars once the US and world starts recession. Model Y to save the day!
I'd recommend you find independent sources of data - then things execs say wouldn't trigger you so much.

Cause TSLA has been a public company for 10 years, which means disclosure requirements, which means anyone who can read, should; There's absolutely no need to listen to Elon - anybody making investments based on the word of execs is an imbecile.


The irony is, even if someone DID take Elon's word for it - they've made an absolute SHIT TON of money: $200k in TSLA 6 months ago is like $6.5M now.

People who invested in TSLA are instant millionaires, so given you likely didn't, I could see why you're bitter.
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      02-14-2020, 08:19 PM   #3252
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I don't know how Scotland produced it's electricity but the idea of driving an EV that is powered by coal fired or natural gas fired power generation seems a bit stupid to me.
The idea is, once the bulk of vehicles are powered by a wall socket, any efficiency improvement in generating said power is instantly recognized by the vast population. Further, you've only got a few places you need to make changes versus an entire supply chain, not to mention every individual vehicle.

As for the article, here's the thing Elon and Greta have over the author:

(1.) They figure out what configuration they want the atoms in.
(2.) They figure out how to get the atoms into that configuration.
(3.) They wager every last nickel of their net worth and public reputations to make it so. And, according to the author, are quite successful at driving change to their whim.

Versus the author who, comparatively, wrote an article I guess.

(which, btw, is so chock full of inaccuracies and shit the author doesn't understand it's not worth even attempting to comment - the whole thing is a redline).

Anyway, if the author's goal was to whine about shit he doesn't really understand without actually doing anything (which he admits in calling it a rant and vaguely asking people to "do better", so +1), mission accomplished!
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 02-14-2020 at 08:31 PM..
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      02-15-2020, 06:30 AM   #3253
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
The idea is, once the bulk of vehicles are powered by a wall socket, any efficiency improvement in generating said power is instantly recognized by the vast population. Further, you've only got a few places you need to make changes versus an entire supply chain, not to mention every individual vehicle.

As for the article, here's the thing Elon and Greta have over the author:

(1.) They figure out what configuration they want the atoms in.
(2.) They figure out how to get the atoms into that configuration.
(3.) They wager every last nickel of their net worth and public reputations to make it so. And, according to the author, are quite successful at driving change to their whim.

Versus the author who, comparatively, wrote an article I guess.

(which, btw, is so chock full of inaccuracies and shit the author doesn't understand it's not worth even attempting to comment - the whole thing is a redline).

Anyway, if the author's goal was to whine about shit he doesn't really understand without actually doing anything (which he admits in calling it a rant and vaguely asking people to "do better", so +1), mission accomplished!
So the author isn't anti EV FTR, he is an electrical engineer who has written quite extensively about some of the real challenges that are ahead for EV's to become mainstream. But I guess time will tell really if he is right or the high school dropout knows more.
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      02-15-2020, 10:31 AM   #3254
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There’s so much ignorance here that it’s painful.

400 miles in 1 go is a pretty unusual activity for the vast majority of people. IF/WHEN you do that, it’s mildly less convenient to be in an EV than ICE car. But, you know what’s constantly more convenient? Not getting gas 1-3 times per week.

“Heavy” depends on what EV you get. Mine (i3) weights <2800 lbs and seats 4 adults in comfort. I don’t believe there’s an ICE car in production in the last 20-30 years that can claim that weight.

ICE engines get heat as a by product, not for free, but because they waste ~80% of the energy in the gas as heat that has to be discarded—generally out the exhaust pipe and through the rad/oil cooler. ICE cars turn ~20% of the energy in gas into motion and 80% into heat. EV use ~90% of the energy in the battery for motion/lights/whatever, and lose ~10% to heat. So, yes, ICE cars are 1-2% more efficient when they can turn a tiny bit of their enormous amount of wasted energy into cabin heat.

At this point there are basically two plug standard on the market
1) Telsa
2) J1772/CCS

In the beginning there was a 3rd type (CHAdeMO), but only the Japanese cars were using it and at this point I don’t believe anyone is. Anyway, in short, if you have a Tesla you go to a Tesla charger (or use an adapter for a non Tesla charger) and if you don’t have a Tesla you use a non Tesla charger (or use an adapter for a Tesla charger).

But, here’s the real kicker—it really doesn’t matter. In the 30,000 miles we’ve driven our i3, we’ve used a public charger one time, and it was really just because I wanted to try it. The overwhelming majority of the time you plug in at home, wake up each morning with a 100% full car, and it’s just hugely more convenient than an ICE car where you have to deal with going to a gas station. Being more convenient 99% of the time in exchange for being less convenient 1% of the time is a worthwhile trade off, IMO (that said, I don’t make that trade off—if I go on a road trip, I take an ICE car… since we still have 4 of them).

Return on investment. We bought our i3 for $19,100. We’re on track to drive it 40,000 miles this year. At that rate, the money we’re saving on gas pays for the entire purchase price of the car in ~2.3 years. That does not factor in the vastly lower running costs otherwise—no oil changes, spark plugs, fuel pumps, coils, belts, tensioners, idlers, bla bla bla. Brakes also last way longer as much of the energy goes back into the battery (instead of being wasted as, you guessed it, heat dissipated through the rotors). My wife and I drive a combine 60,000 miles/year. The i3 is absorbing 40,000 miles/year. Since we got it, the amount we spend on gas per month has gone down by $700 and the amount we spend on car parts per month has gone down by $300 (which was probably and underestimate to the true cost, as FCP covers a lot of my part costs at this point with their lifetime on everything warranty). In exchange, our electric bill has gone up by ~$50 per month.

Economies of scale make things cheaper. The tax incentives existed to create the economies of scales to make EVs cheaper. They have succeeded. EV batteries have gotten, and are continuing to get, absurdly cheaper. There’s a reason the Model 3 (which a basic one is $40k, not $50) is feasible as a product today and wasn’t 10 years ago. As the incentives go away, the actual prices shouldn’t change that much… and longer term will be cheaper.




That is a HUGE difference in the price to make an EV (given that battery packs range from ~33kw to ~100kw), and it hasn't stopped getting cheaper. E.g the 75kw battery in the Model 3 has gone from a cost of $87,000 in 2010 to $10,691 in 2019 (price per kw went down another 19% from 2018 to 2019). That's way more significant that the government subsidy that allowed it to exist.
I want to like an all electric car. I even said my next car will probably be a Tesla in the other post. However, I drive 100 miles a day and for 5 out of those 7 days, there's a turn around time of 6 hours before I have to be back at work. So charging at home in 6 hours to to drive 100 miles is cutting it close.

Electric car with longer range is heavy and can not tow. I tow a 7200 pound trailer at least 10 times year for 200-1000 miles.

I work in the middle of nowhere and there are hardly any fast chargers around. There's no charging at work. I fuel up about once a week and it's not inconvenient to spend 5 minutes at the pump. The nearest level 2 charger near me is 20 miles away.

I love the acceleration of an electric car and there is great potential for cost saving. It will get cheaper, better, faster just not right now. That is why I said electric car is the future just not the immediate future.

For me the sweet spot would be 400 mile range and $35K. Until that time it's going to be ICE vehicles for a while.
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      02-15-2020, 12:34 PM   #3255
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I guess time will tell really if he is right or the high school dropout knows more.
Life is about actually doing things, not talking about them. The irony is, the author's rant ("do better you guys!") has been beaten silly by a HS dropout with just one year of her life against the sum of every one of his; and he's not even smart enough to recognize it. That's hardcore worker bee delusion right there, complaining about the queen's honeycomb.

However, if Greta is ever ranting about the change the author is driving, then we can revisit.
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      02-15-2020, 01:08 PM   #3256
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Life is about actually doing things, not talking about them. The irony is, the author's rant ("do better you guys!") has been beaten silly by a HS dropout with just one year of her life against the sum of every one of his; and he's not even smart enough to recognize it. That's hardcore worker bee delusion right there, complaining about the queen's honeycomb.

However, if Greta is ever ranting about the change the author is driving, then we can revisit.
So what are you doing besides ranting?
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