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      02-25-2020, 08:30 AM   #3301
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
Would have been a good time to sell. Wonder how far the free fall will go?
Pretty far I'd think - $200s or even high $100s ... Tesla is a "story stock", a way to trade on new battery tech and de-carbonization of the electric grid. If global supply chains start failing due to China, there goes Tesla's growth story, at least temporarily.

On the flip side here's why Tesla should terrify the legacy auto industry - and one of many reasons their stock is so high:

(1.) These fuckers built an auto mfr plant *from scratch*, *with their tech*, and now they're duplicating it twice. Maybe 3 times. I leave that point there, but count how many times that's been done. It's badassery level 10,000,000.

(2.) These fuckers engineered new automobiles on entirely new technology. I'll leave that one alone too, but again, count how many times it's been done.

(3.) These fuckers engineered a self-sustaining fuel source that can disconnect people from all energy infrastructure, making them completely self-sufficient for power and mobility.

And here's the thing: when you've built your own factories, on your own tech, and been through "production hell" and "logistics hell" ... AND SURVIVED IT, you're one big bad muthafucka of an auto company.

But even bad muthafuckas gotta eat, so if COVD-19 continues accelerating, it'll stave them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Would you agree that these decisions are largely being driven by government policy and climate change scare tactics rather than market demand?

After all when China and EU effectively ban ICE in passenger cars how else would automakers react?
Widen your aperture. A great analytical tool to use is to forget your biases as a potential answer - and then ask why. (fyi 99% of the time my bias had the wrong answer) Because if all you picture is a hammer every screw is a nail. and you keep doing it and it becomes a habit and pretty soon every complex problem has a simple solution (that's also wrong). Critical thinking and all that.

Anyway, try it here.

Let's forget about climate change and ask why would governments want new electrical infrastructure? I bet you could think of 50 really good reasons.

Then consider what we know: a BEV in its technological infancy can DESTROY an equivalent ICE at its technological zenith. (that one will be fun, huh?? it's true)

Now ask yourself again, why would governments want BEVs and new electric infrastructure technology? I bet you'll come up with more reasons. repeat.

As a quick example, here's a picture I took in Silicon Valley during the Sept 2018 fires burning 3 hours away in Napa Valley (like 100+ miles away) - that's the noon sun and Santa Cruz mountains you can't see:



This is not good for business at all.

Here's what Silicon Valley normally looks like (that's actually the moon rising into the sunset)



This is really great for business - People like it here.

Here's a picture of Shanghai pretty much most days:



Are the Chinese known for their measured care of the environment and stern green policies? yet they're driving BEV policy. huh.
OK, so the answer is yes.
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      02-25-2020, 08:37 AM   #3302
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Nah. People have a fantastical definition of free market.
So, so this. We don't live in some laissez-faire system, we regulate the SHIT out of markets and that DOESN'T include fiscal, monetary, or trade policy. And there's the legal system (e.g., the freedom or lack thereof to sue), etc etc.

You know what I'm for?

American engineering. American auto industry. American Exports. American GDP.

WTF with these "free market" patriots hating on an American engineering company literally invading two continents simultaneously??!?

I'm telling you, people have lost their fucking minds with this cultural shit.

Do you know why Henry Ford built Ford? Who gives a fuck. geezus.
Right because when it comes to allocating capital the govt always knows best.

So ya, of course in the near term at least the smart money is all-in on Tesla. No surprise there.
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      02-25-2020, 08:43 AM   #3303
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Originally Posted by SleepingBMW View Post
Anyone else think EVs will end up being a billion dollar fad? What's Tesla's customer retention rate?

The cost of these things is too high and they are always going to be limited to commuting as you're going to need a petrol/diesel to go on a road trip.

Once the California types have shown off a Tesla on Instagram do they look for the next cool thing or do they end up buying a new Tesla?

All these Long promised EVs are all failing to compete with Tesla for price or performance so now you have multi billion dollar investments from VAG/BMW/GM and Tesla all competing for less than 10% of the market that hasn't seemed to grow from more than a niche of tech / green enthusiasts.
When government tax credits in Europe and the US end who's going to buy them?

Hybrids that can do a 30 mile range on EVs and still have an engine for long range seem far more practical, and sales figures agree.

My thoughts are we are ten years away from 'good' electrics. This generation is just not practical enough. I'd consider an i3 for $20k but not $50k.

Worse is BMW seems to have a record of not fixing hybrid and electric power trains and batteries but instead just replacing the whole thing. Meaning your 'cheap' EV is going to be extremely expensive out of warranty. Forums are littered with $7-10k battery and motor replacements.
Tesla, like GM, is TBTF. It will exist for as long as the State allows it too.
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      02-25-2020, 01:09 PM   #3304
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I prefer non electric vehicles.
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      02-25-2020, 01:16 PM   #3305
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Originally Posted by J-RO View Post
I prefer non electric vehicles.
Electric is the future.

Buy your favorite gas ⛽️ car while you can, because eventually it's going away.
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      02-25-2020, 02:21 PM   #3306
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Electric is the future.

Buy your favorite gas ⛽️ car while you can, because eventually it's going away.
I will be taking the dirt nap by then.
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      02-25-2020, 03:55 PM   #3307
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Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Tesla, like GM, is TBTF. It will exist for as long as the State allows it too.
And Ford. And GM. And Chrysler. Or 2009's cash for clunkers - auto dealers got $4500 directly from the Federal Government for selling a new car



And Boeing and the defense industrial complex.

And Industrial farmers, including shit like the Export Credit Guarantee Program, the Dairy Export Incentive Program, and especially corn ($20B between 1979 and 2010).

And the oil industry.

Oh, and then there's housing! Ever heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that more/less led to the great recession?

Holy shit, the list of companies, industries, and private business the government subsidizes is pretty fucking long. It's almost like the government is the 3rd leg of the financial stool our economy sits on!

But hey, back on topic, why don't you itemize Tesla's 2020 subsidies for us!
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-25-2020, 05:21 PM   #3308
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just like the vegan section in supermarkets and we all know the health benefits of being vegan tesla is around but unlike tesla vegan food doesn't get government subsidy.
fuck if i was told i could eat for free if i only i ate vegan i would too for a period of time and then go back to meat.
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      02-25-2020, 05:53 PM   #3309
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Originally Posted by J-RO View Post
I prefer non electric vehicles.
I prefer milk... on my cereal, but butter on my toast. For commuting, electric can't be beat. It just does EVERYTHING better for me. On the backroads, track, and road trips: ICE-ICE-BABY
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      02-25-2020, 05:54 PM   #3310
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
just like the vegan section in supermarkets and we all know the health benefits of being vegan tesla is around but unlike tesla vegan food doesn't get government subsidy.
fuck if i was told i could eat for free if i only i ate vegan i would too for a period of time and then go back to meat.
Um... agriculture is subsidized like a bitch. This is another "free market is god" fallacy.
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      02-25-2020, 06:10 PM   #3311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Tesla, like GM, is TBTF. It will exist for as long as the State allows it too.
And Ford. And GM. And Chrysler. Or 2009's cash for clunkers - auto dealers got $4500 directly from the Federal Government for selling a new car

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

And Boeing and the defense industrial complex.

And Industrial farmers, including shit like the Export Credit Guarantee Program, the Dairy Export Incentive Program, and especially corn ($20B between 1979 and 2010).

And the oil industry.

Oh, and then there's housing! Ever heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that more/less led to the great recession?

Holy shit, the list of companies, industries, and private business the government subsidizes is pretty fucking long. It's almost like the government is the 3rd leg of the financial stool our economy sits on!

But hey, back on topic, why don't you itemize Tesla's 2020 subsidies for us!

Tesla managed to avoid a 50/50 equity split with a Chinese partner for their Shanghai location.

Tesla is not forced to partner with a Chinese battery supplier unlike say Mercedes Benz and I think BMW.

PACE loans and other subsidies for their solar business.

Numerous customer level tax credits on vehicle purchases (I'm against them in general because it's the State picking winners/losers).
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      02-25-2020, 06:49 PM   #3312
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Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Tesla managed [to negotiate good deals]
Numerous customer level tax credits on vehicle purchases (I'm against them in general because it's the State picking winners/losers).
Sounds like they're a good business with great negotiators!

BTW, the incentives are expired.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      02-25-2020, 09:51 PM   #3313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Tesla, like GM, is TBTF. It will exist for as long as the State allows it too.
And Ford. And GM. And Chrysler. Or 2009's cash for clunkers - auto dealers got $4500 directly from the Federal Government for selling a new car

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

And Boeing and the defense industrial complex.

And Industrial farmers, including shit like the Export Credit Guarantee Program, the Dairy Export Incentive Program, and especially corn ($20B between 1979 and 2010).

And the oil industry.

Oh, and then there's housing! Ever heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that more/less led to the great recession?

Holy shit, the list of companies, industries, and private business the government subsidizes is pretty fucking long. It's almost like the government is the 3rd leg of the financial stool our economy sits on!

But hey, back on topic, why don't you itemize Tesla's 2020 subsidies for us!

Tesla managed to avoid a 50/50 equity split with a Chinese partner for their Shanghai location.

Tesla is not forced to partner with a Chinese battery supplier unlike say Mercedes Benz and I think BMW.

PACE loans and other subsidies for their solar business.

Numerous customer level tax credits on vehicle purchases (I'm against them in general because it's the State picking winners/losers).
I really don't understand this logic. Without incentives and subsidies our society would be in shambles. It's not like they are just throwing darts and giving each other handjobs, although I'm sure there is a lot of lobbying to pass certain subsidies and incentives. They all serve a purpose that, in theory, is necessary for the betterment of quality of life. Imagine if everyone just grew weed to get rich and no one farmed fruits and vegetables? We'd all be high fat fucks with heart disease and diabetes.

I can understand that you don't feel that EV's deserve these subsidies, but that's because you feel they don't benefit us, NOT because "subsidies are bad mmmmm-kaaayyy, and the free market shouldn't be messed with". It's been pointed several times in this thread that your idea of a free market not only doesn't really exist but isn't even ideal. Subsidies aren't bad, we implement them all the time to great benefit. What you should be arguing is that they are bad *in this case*. That's a more debatable idea than "subsidies are bad".
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      02-26-2020, 08:19 AM   #3314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Tesla, like GM, is TBTF. It will exist for as long as the State allows it too.
And Ford. And GM. And Chrysler. Or 2009's cash for clunkers - auto dealers got $4500 directly from the Federal Government for selling a new car

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

And Boeing and the defense industrial complex.

And Industrial farmers, including shit like the Export Credit Guarantee Program, the Dairy Export Incentive Program, and especially corn ($20B between 1979 and 2010).

And the oil industry.

Oh, and then there's housing! Ever heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that more/less led to the great recession?

Holy shit, the list of companies, industries, and private business the government subsidizes is pretty fucking long. It's almost like the government is the 3rd leg of the financial stool our economy sits on!

But hey, back on topic, why don't you itemize Tesla's 2020 subsidies for us!

Tesla managed to avoid a 50/50 equity split with a Chinese partner for their Shanghai location.

Tesla is not forced to partner with a Chinese battery supplier unlike say Mercedes Benz and I think BMW.

PACE loans and other subsidies for their solar business.

Numerous customer level tax credits on vehicle purchases (I'm against them in general because it's the State picking winners/losers).
I really don't understand this logic. Without incentives and subsidies our society would be in shambles. It's not like they are just throwing darts and giving each other handjobs, although I'm sure there is a lot of lobbying to pass certain subsidies and incentives. They all serve a purpose that, in theory, is necessary for the betterment of quality of life. Imagine if everyone just grew weed to get rich and no one farmed fruits and vegetables? We'd all be high fat fucks with heart disease and diabetes.

I can understand that you don't feel that EV's deserve these subsidies, but that's because you feel they don't benefit us, NOT because "subsidies are bad mmmmm-kaaayyy, and the free market shouldn't be messed with". It's been pointed several times in this thread that your idea of a free market not only doesn't really exist but isn't even ideal. Subsidies aren't bad, we implement them all the time to great benefit. What you should be arguing is that they are bad *in this case*. That's a more debatable idea than "subsidies are bad".
Subsidies, and govt intervention in general, distort prices by making products more expensive than they otherwise would be. In aggregate everyone is less* well off, but the subsidized do benefit immensely.

Some glaring examples of this are the rise in the cost of medical care, housing and post-secondary education. The "gain" in the stock market is another.

*Not only do current consumers pay a higher price but they and future generations also must pay for the cost of the subsidy.
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      02-26-2020, 11:30 AM   #3315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
And Ford. And GM. And Chrysler. Or 2009's cash for clunkers - auto dealers got $4500 directly from the Federal Government for selling a new car



And Boeing and the defense industrial complex.

And Industrial farmers, including shit like the Export Credit Guarantee Program, the Dairy Export Incentive Program, and especially corn ($20B between 1979 and 2010).

And the oil industry.

Oh, and then there's housing! Ever heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that more/less led to the great recession?

Holy shit, the list of companies, industries, and private business the government subsidizes is pretty fucking long. It's almost like the government is the 3rd leg of the financial stool our economy sits on!

But hey, back on topic, why don't you itemize Tesla's 2020 subsidies for us!
"State taxpayers paid $959 million to build and equip the sprawling factory near the Buffalo River. But they’ve been given no information on the return of their investment. In fact, state officials didn’t even publicly announce that the cost of the project ballooned past the initial $750 million that they had to spend."
https://www.wivb.com/news/more-forme...falo-facility/
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      02-26-2020, 11:40 AM   #3316
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Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
"State taxpayers paid $959 million to build"
Yeah, exactly! Tesla is a great negotiator - as good or better than BMW, Benz, et al with their tax payer funded plants in US south (e.g, Spartanburg)!

And then Tesla's negotiation skill at getting FCA to fund their Berlin plant!? and the Chinese to fund their Shanghai plant? GENIUS! Yeah, Tesla is a great negotiator: both identifying leverage AND using it.

More interesting, though, is that Tesla's success is threatening their largest partnership: Panasonic
Panasonic struck a deal in 2016 to jointly produce solar cells at Tesla’s “Gigafactory 2” plant in Buffalo, New York. Panasonic committed to share the cost of equipment needed for the plant. The joint venture deepened the relationship between the two companies, which already had established a partnership to produce battery cells at Tesla’s factory near Reno, Nevada.

As Panasonic exits New York, it still works with Tesla under a separate joint venture to produce battery cells at a massive factory near Reno, Nevada. Panasonic said in a statement that the decision “will have no impact on Panasonic and Tesla’s strong partnership in Nevada.” The two companies will continue their electric vehicle battery work taking place at Tesla’s Gigafactory, according to Panasonic.

In recent years, reports have suggested the relationship between Panasonic and Tesla has become strained. Tesla’s acquisition in February 2019 of Maxwell Technologies fueled speculation that the automaker wanted to develop its own battery cells.
I gotta say, Tesla-Panasonic reminds me of Target-Amazon: that did not end well once Target realized Amazon was turning into their largest strategic competitor ...

But, yeah, Tesla has shown they're as good as anyone in the World at making deals.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 02-26-2020 at 12:04 PM..
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      02-26-2020, 11:50 AM   #3317
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Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Subsidies, and govt intervention in general, distort prices by making products more expensive than they otherwise would be. In aggregate everyone is less* well off, but the subsidized do benefit immensely.
FYI, "government" = taxpayers and "subsidies" = business deals taxpayers cut with businesses. That's no different than any deal (e.g., are bank loans "savings client subsidies?" no).

And there's a metic fuck-ton of examples of negotiated taxpayer deals working awesome (when people know wtf they're doing): BMW @ Spartanburg, Atlanta movie industry, etc etc which create $trillions of wealth.

There's also a bunch of examples when government dipshits make horseshit deals because they're morons: e.g., WI Gov Scott Walker's $4.1B deal with Foxconn what a moron! Walker got Foxconned!

TLDR: Taxpayer negotiated deal are great, *if* taxpayers elect a competent leader who builds the right team to do the negotiating. (and a candidate with bad/failed deals, history of bankruptcy, etc should be red flags of who not to vote for, for smart taxpayers)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 02-26-2020 at 11:59 AM..
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      02-26-2020, 12:28 PM   #3318
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Tesla, like GM, is TBTF. It will exist for as long as the State allows it too.
And Ford. And GM. And Chrysler. Or 2009's cash for clunkers - auto dealers got $4500 directly from the Federal Government for selling a new car

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

And Boeing and the defense industrial complex.

And Industrial farmers, including shit like the Export Credit Guarantee Program, the Dairy Export Incentive Program, and especially corn ($20B between 1979 and 2010).

And the oil industry.

Oh, and then there's housing! Ever heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that more/less led to the great recession?

Holy shit, the list of companies, industries, and private business the government subsidizes is pretty fucking long. It's almost like the government is the 3rd leg of the financial stool our economy sits on!

But hey, back on topic, why don't you itemize Tesla's 2020 subsidies for us!

Tesla managed to avoid a 50/50 equity split with a Chinese partner for their Shanghai location.

Tesla is not forced to partner with a Chinese battery supplier unlike say Mercedes Benz and I think BMW.

PACE loans and other subsidies for their solar business.

Numerous customer level tax credits on vehicle purchases (I'm against them in general because it's the State picking winners/losers).
I really don't understand this logic. Without incentives and subsidies our society would be in shambles. It's not like they are just throwing darts and giving each other handjobs, although I'm sure there is a lot of lobbying to pass certain subsidies and incentives. They all serve a purpose that, in theory, is necessary for the betterment of quality of life. Imagine if everyone just grew weed to get rich and no one farmed fruits and vegetables? We'd all be high fat fucks with heart disease and diabetes.

I can understand that you don't feel that EV's deserve these subsidies, but that's because you feel they don't benefit us, NOT because "subsidies are bad mmmmm-kaaayyy, and the free market shouldn't be messed with". It's been pointed several times in this thread that your idea of a free market not only doesn't really exist but isn't even ideal. Subsidies aren't bad, we implement them all the time to great benefit. What you should be arguing is that they are bad *in this case*. That's a more debatable idea than "subsidies are bad".
Subsidies, and govt intervention in general, distort prices by making products more expensive than they otherwise would be. In aggregate everyone is less* well off, but the subsidized do benefit immensely.

Some glaring examples of this are the rise in the cost of medical care, housing and post-secondary education. The "gain" in the stock market is another.

*Not only do current consumers pay a higher price but they and future generations also must pay for the cost of the subsidy.
They also make products available that we actually need but aren't that profitable for production. Good with the bad. AGAIN, your making a blanket statement about subsidies that you don't have to about EV's. I can easily make an example to argue your point. However, if you merely just say subsidies shouldn't be applied to the EV, that is a more solid, and frankly reasonable argument. Saying subsidies are bad and that's why EV's shouldn't have them... well that's just an easily dismissed absolute. It weakens your argument.
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      02-26-2020, 12:44 PM   #3319
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I haven't read all 150 pages! I work in the motor city in the auto industry. I've driven a few Model 3's and they are pretty awsome for a simple sedan. Fastest vehicle i've ever driven. I like the idea of it, but a fully eletric vehicle system has several BIG hurdles to get through, and I can't see this happening in 10 yrs. One main one, when will the next, better battery tech. be ready? Lithium is limited an will not support the industry. Also, as awsome as solar and wind generation is(i'm a fan), it is not free and has a lot of hurdles to pass too, such as renewability of the components, many which are pretty toxic stuff. 15k lbs or weird composites that are not recyclable.
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      02-26-2020, 04:46 PM   #3320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NERO X View Post
I haven't read all 150 pages! I work in the motor city in the auto industry. I've driven a few Model 3's and they are pretty awsome for a simple sedan. Fastest vehicle i've ever driven. I like the idea of it, but a fully eletric vehicle system has several BIG hurdles to get through, and I can't see this happening in 10 yrs. One main one, when will the next, better battery tech. be ready? Lithium is limited an will not support the industry. Also, as awsome as solar and wind generation is(i'm a fan), it is not free and has a lot of hurdles to pass too, such as renewability of the components, many which are pretty toxic stuff. 15k lbs or weird composites that are not recyclable.
Repurposing EV batteries for storage is currently being used to delay disposal. I've read that recycling is difficult because the methods used depend on how the battery was manufactured. The lack of a standardized recycling method impedes cost reductions.
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      02-27-2020, 09:13 AM   #3321
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A very good car engine will do about 40% efficiency.

A power station will do over 90%. Factor in some losses for transmission and charging, and the EV is probably still over 80% efficient. Then add on their efficiency in traffic etc compared with running an engine (even with auto start/stop)...

The EV is way more efficient, even though its power is created by burning stuff.

What happens at the end of life with an EV, and how polluting they really are to build, are other questions though...ones that I'd like to see answered!

I'm sceptical about how environmentally friendly EVs really are too, but in terms of CO2 emissions at least, they're a vast leap ahead of ICEs.

Edit: Hey mods, why was my post moved to this thread??

Last edited by Tambohamilton; 02-27-2020 at 04:07 PM..
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      02-27-2020, 09:21 AM   #3322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tambohamilton View Post
What happens at the end of life with an EV, and how polluting they really are to build, are other questions though...ones that I'd like to see answered!

I'm sceptical about how environmentally friendly EVs really are too, but in terms of CO2 emissions at least, they're a vast leap ahead of ICEs.
Mining of rare earth materials to make batteries is far from environmentally friendly. Refining these materials only adds to that. I read somewhere that the manufacturing of a single battery pack causes more carbon emissions than most ICE vehicles do over their life, 10 or so years.

To stay somewhat on topic, I think EV's are cool, but it's far from being the norm, and they aren't performance oriented. Just because they make a ball ton of torque and can do 0-60 very quickly doesn't mean anything. I'd love to have a cheap EV as a daily, electric Mini or even a Leaf.

The P1 is the pinnacle of hybrid supercars to me. Oh how I'd love to drive one one day.
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