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      03-16-2020, 11:51 PM   #3367
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Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
I imagine Tesla factory is shutting down like everyone else in NorCal.
Apparently Musk's email today had this in it:
"I'd like to be super clear that if you feel the slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable, please do not feel obligated to come to work ... I will personally be at work, but that's just me. Totally ok if you want to stay home for any reason."
Tesla's Shanghai factory was closed for about 2 weeks in late jan/early feb due to covid, plus their supply chain was disrupted causing the chip hoohaw. Because of the Chinese factory, Musk might have a better sense of the covid transmission probabilities

i'm hopeful that norcal's lockdown, and hopefully the rest of the nation's lockdown, will also shut down covid rather quickly and we'll be able to get back to normal ops.
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      03-17-2020, 02:17 AM   #3368
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you are defending the indefensible mate
That's the fun of following the data where it leads you! You don't have to defend anything because you just follow the data and do what it tells you. The data isn't pro or con, it just is.

And what the TSLA data says right now is, unless there are major structural changes, and there's no indication whatsoever there's going to be, TSLA will continue it's trend stronger after covid, than prior - and that's specifically derivative of coronavirus sales data coming out of China and Europe.

That said, there's no doubt TSLA, like Ford and GM, will take a deliveries hit but right now that's looking to be <20% - RBC Capital, for example, is carrying a sell rating and forecasting 364k deliveries vs 368k last year (against a projection of 500k in a no-virus scenario). So basically the investor pessimists are saying a once-in-a-lifetime shock will barely impact TSLA deliveries y/y. Again, that's what the pessimists are saying.

So the data's telling me if TSLA falls below $300 it's a great buy - i'm not an individual stock investor, but given these opportunities I will probably be breaking that rule.
we are so early on in the disease pandemic curve that all the current data is flawed(ie falsely inflated to enable big guns to sell and run).
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      03-17-2020, 04:50 PM   #3369
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we are so early on in the disease pandemic curve that all the current data is flawed(ie falsely inflated to enable big guns to sell and run).
Data is only flawed for those without experience gathering and interpreting it. In the TSLA case, we're looking for three things:

(1.) Immediate collapse in Chinese / European demand? This would indicate Tesla BEVs are a "Risk-on" only product. The first test was Feb numbers, passed. The next test will be Q1 numbers due in about 3 weeks.

(2.) For Q2/Q3 do we see declining TSLA sales at higher and accelerating rates from other auto manufacturers, possibly indicating a consumer "risk-off" shift. (note that we're already in a recession, likely going into a deep recession, and probably a depression - still, there will be auto sales.)

(3.) Do we see major shifts in strategic direction industry wide indicating major market structural shifts? Right now VW, BMW, Ford, GM, et al are all planning a large shift to BEVs with the boat anchor of having to maintain their existing ICE business, something Tesla, Rivian, et al don't have to deal with.


If I had to guess the future, I'd say we're heading into a less-commuting-more-deliveries world, and that those business vehicles will shift to BEV for three reasons:

(1.) Supply chain control. ICE requires parts and fuel from global supply chains - in the past business was willing to trade continuity confidence for efficiency ... I think that just blew up. We're going to see a shift to local controlled supply chains. Add a few US motor companies to existing battery factories and we're down to materials (which have some interesting local solutions being researched). BEVs are just way easier of a tool to use than ICE. Businesses like easy.

(2.) Cost Control. ICE fuel and parts costs are going to swing into unpredictability and, as above, are at risk due to exogenous factors. BEVs allow for the generation of your own fuel and even the new and reasonable notion of having your own mechanics. With BEVs, a business can reliably count on their delivery costs.

(3.) Fleet control. BEVs are natively networked and automated which make fleet management easy, efficient, and convertible to automated. This is the holy grail for a deliveries heavy business.

That's going to plummet the costs for BEV consumer versions, and all of those companies above (GM, Ford, VW, BMW, et al) are currently planning for exactly this.

20 years ago SMG transmissions were like , now we're all legit wondering if the next M3 will have a manual option. Ten years from now, same with BEVs, we'll all be legit wondering if BMW plans to make an ICE version of the M3.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-18-2020, 12:22 AM   #3370
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Apparently the county sheriff disagrees that Tesla is a critical business and will have to scale back to minimum basic operation only in the bay area. We’re all gonna see how good their liquidity is with production slowed and potentially big slide in demand.
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      03-18-2020, 05:38 PM   #3371
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Apparently the county sheriff disagrees that Tesla is a critical business and will have to scale back to minimum basic operation only in the bay area. We’re all gonna see how good their liquidity is with production slowed and potentially big slide in demand.
Good for the sheriff, because we're all about to see how good all of our liquidity is, period.

Musk - and frank herbert - say fear is the mind-killer ... well, COVID19 is the lung killer. and also the heart-killer. and we're beginning to see <50 year old killer.

and if all of America doesn't immediately go into shelter-in-place, we're going see more dead than all US wars combined.

The other scenario is, Americans listen to science, shelter-in-place and the death rate plummets to hardly observable ... BUT in that case it'll seem like we're doing it all for nothing because no deaths - so Americans likely won't do that because [ buh buh buh the flu! buh buh buh 1% death rate! yeah, only if there's hospital capacity, otherwise 2 in 10 need it, can't get it, and die, so death rate skyrockets ] so ...

Call me a pessimist, but my confidence in Americans ability to gather, understand, and react to data (vs narrative) is pretty low, so I'd say we're looking at a medium to high death-rate and economically 2nd Great Depression, with probably a 25%-30% unemployment rate.

Every business is about to be strained to its limits, including Tesla - with all of that said, Tesla will likely be one of the few short-term winners coming out all of this for the reasons I said above:

* A work-from-home, heavy-deliveries, compromised supply chain economy favors BEVs

* Solar = plentiful, self-sufficient, micro-local energy and fuel

* BEVs = fewer parts, local factories, local supply chains

* Tesla BEVs = software controlled, networked, fleet optimized

Sadly, coronavirus will kill a lot of things, and one of them will be ICE vehicles.
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-18-2020, 06:10 PM   #3372
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineWhite_SJ View Post
Apparently the county sheriff disagrees that Tesla is a critical business and will have to scale back to minimum basic operation only in the bay area. We're all gonna see how good their liquidity is with production slowed and potentially big slide in demand.
Good for the sheriff, because we're all about to see how good all of our liquidity is, period.

Musk - and frank herbert - say fear is the mind-killer ... well, COVID19 is the lung killer. and also the heart-killer. and we're beginning to see <50 year old killer.

and if all of America doesn't immediately go into shelter-in-place, [COLOR="Blue"]we're going see more dead than all US wars combined.[/COLOR]

The other scenario is, Americans listen to science, shelter-in-place and the death rate plummets to hardly observable ... BUT in that case it'll seem like we're doing it all for nothing because no deaths - so Americans likely won't do that because [ buh buh buh the flu! buh buh buh 1% death rate! yeah, only if there's hospital capacity, otherwise 2 in 10 need it, can't get it, and die, so death rate skyrockets ] so ...

Call me a pessimist, but my confidence in Americans ability to gather, understand, and react to data (vs narrative) is pretty low, so I'd say we're looking at a medium to high death-rate and economically 2nd Great Depression, with probably a 25%-30% unemployment rate.

Every business is about to be strained to its limits, including Tesla - with all of that said, Tesla will likely be one of the few short-term winners coming out all of this for the reasons I said above:

* A work-from-home, heavy-deliveries, compromised supply chain economy favors BEVs

* Solar = plentiful, self-sufficient, micro-local energy and fuel

* BEVs = fewer parts, local factories, local supply chains

* Tesla BEVs = software controlled, networked, fleet optimized

Sadly, coronavirus will kill a lot of things, and one of them will be ICE vehicles.

you were spot on till you reached the conclusion bit which didn't make any sense.

cheap ice vehicles will be in demand
overpriced ev will not be in demand though there will be a niche market for them not mainstream
fuel prices will be low
I T and bankers and sales type folk who mostly buy tesla will lose jobs hence slower demand.
govt will have no money for subsidising ev as cuts have to be made
investment in charging points plummets
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      03-18-2020, 07:08 PM   #3373
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So much buzz about TSLA becoming the largest Automaker by MktCp but no so much buzz now when it is isnt. Better yet, no buzz about Musk playing down the virus threat and the severity of it despite his plant now being asked to shut down because of it. Odd.

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      03-18-2020, 07:28 PM   #3374
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you were spot on till you reached the conclusion bit which didn't make any sense.

cheap ice vehicles will be in demand
overpriced ev will not be in demand though there will be a niche market for them not mainstream
fuel prices will be low
I T and bankers and sales type folk who mostly buy tesla will lose jobs hence slower demand.
govt will have no money for subsidising ev as cuts have to be made
investment in charging points plummets
Maybe, but I don't think so, i'll reformulate my prediction:

(1.) US business is about to have a revolution in risk management and business continuity planning - those without it will get hammered.

(2.) That will mean business re-examining supply chains and cost controls for a broad array of risks

(3.) The last 10 years were about operational efficiency over certainty (cheap foreign goods via long supply chains, stock buy-backs vs rainy day funds) - this is known as "risk-on" behavior

(4.) The next 20 years are going to be about business certainty over efficiency ("risk-off"): short supply chains, rainy day funds, contingency planning, and stock prices will value them that way.

(5.) For the consumer, the economy is going to shift work-from-home and delivery will be king for 70% of the economy. Auto-commuting will drastically decrease; this will ripple across fast food, gas stations, etc. The need for freeway commuter vehicles will plummet.

(6.) For business, the natural fleet vehicle for transpo and deliveries is a BEV - Amazon is already building 100,000 of them -because they're software controlled, easy to manage, have few parts, have short supply chains, and easy to predict fuel prices because you can make your own. See #1-#5.

(7.) Further, the entire auto and truck market has already re-tooled that way, they're not going to suddenly reverse, so we'll only see an acceleration of that trend which in ~2 years will create massive economies of scale for BEVs, not to mention local jobs. (e.g., developers can test harness full-scale BEVs in their garage all day long and network results)

(8.) Telsa is the American tech leader, with American factories, and American jobs - that means short, local supply chains. Ford is already shifting to this model with Rivian and GM is kinda fucked. We'll probably see one or more of the other American BEV startups rise up.

(9.) The federal government will invest in and support American BEVs and local e-industry because that's where the industry is going anyway, America is the current technology and manufacturing leader, and it creates thousands (maybe millions) of local jobs with local supply chains. (e.g., car build, solar build & installs, battery build and installs, power grid / power plant re-tooling, et al)

(10.) Cheap oil today is due to a dying international industry blowing its load because they know it's over at scale ... BUT local scale oil production will continue and grow for industrial use (e.g., US shale) ... but for transpo and autos we'll soon see a ICE-to-BEV price inversion as BEVs build in scale and costs fall. Then comes ICE parts shortages both due to long supply chains, and forecasted decreased demand (see cost management and risk mitigation) - heck we might even ICE parts shortages in a few months ...


None of any of this is new or unprecedented - it's happened this way for eons over and over - most recently with transition from horses to cars: in 1900 ICE cars were a fantasy, in 1930 young city kids had no idea there ever were horses there.

That's not what I'd pick, but it's what's going to happen, which is why if TSLA gets a "2" or "1" in front of the share price, future transpo/energy millionaires will have probably been those investors who knew that was the time to get in.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-18-2020, 07:57 PM   #3375
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not so much buzz about
I'll assume you realize the irony in saying there's no buzz about something you both know about and are posting about. I like the joke - ha!

Here's the thing about investing in a downturn: smart investors jump in when everyone else has given up, BUT the fundamentals remain the same.

That's how we know TSLA isn't at the bottom yet - for a risk-on growth stock it's priced way too high for a risk-off world. We have to wait until buyers completely dry up, and when "the buzz" is about how horrible TSLA is and always was. The volume on this thread will be deafening from all of the culture whiners because they're emotional-narrative people not agnostic data people - that's when you'll know: buy TSLA.

At that point, unless there are other structural changes, TSLA will be a massive buy, because the fundamentals haven't changed. This is the definition of "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful".

TSLA is likely on its way to becoming one of the World's all-time great stock buys.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-18-2020, 09:04 PM   #3376
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you and i discussing it does not make buzz... i am referring to the same talking heads that boasted about and posted about and bragged about tesla being larger than the traditional and conventional automakers.
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      03-19-2020, 12:13 AM   #3377
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you and i discussing it does not make buzz... i am referring to the same talking heads that boasted about and posted about and bragged about tesla being larger than the traditional and conventional automakers.
ah - well, I guess you'd know more about that than me as these days i tend to just do my own thing, gather my own data and kinda ignore any buzz. It's why I never invested in TSLA.

But HEY: It's gonna be super interesting to watch the bailouts buzz, since corp share buybacks take rainy-day funds and spend them on juicing share price which execs then convert to huge pay-outs; versus issuing stock which raises cash for the company ...

So if we're looking at American auto manufacturers in a bailout world, how do they stack up for 3-year avg share buybacks?

+ num = buybacks, - num mean issuing stock:

Ford:


GM:


TSLA:


So rough summary, GM has done more buybacks than 92% of the industry, Ford has done more buybacks than 66% of the industry, and TSLA has done fewer buybacks than 59% of the industry ... interesting from a bailout perspective, huh???
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-19-2020, 01:07 AM   #3378
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Seems like a good idea so... WHATTHEFUCK ARE YOU WAITING FOR!?!

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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      03-19-2020, 06:25 AM   #3379
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
you were spot on till you reached the conclusion bit which didn't make any sense.

cheap ice vehicles will be in demand
overpriced ev will not be in demand though there will be a niche market for them not mainstream
fuel prices will be low
I T and bankers and sales type folk who mostly buy tesla will lose jobs hence slower demand.
govt will have no money for subsidising ev as cuts have to be made
investment in charging points plummets
Maybe, but I don't think so, i'll reformulate my prediction:

(1.) US business is about to have a revolution in risk management and business continuity planning - those without it will get hammered.

(2.) That will mean business re-examining supply chains and cost controls for a broad array of risks

(3.) The last 10 years were about operational efficiency over certainty (cheap foreign goods via long supply chains, stock buy-backs vs rainy day funds) - this is known as "risk-on" behavior

(4.) The next 20 years are going to be about business certainty over efficiency ("risk-off"): short supply chains, rainy day funds, contingency planning, and stock prices will value them that way.

(5.) For the consumer, the economy is going to shift work-from-home and delivery will be king for 70% of the economy. Auto-commuting will drastically decrease; this will ripple across fast food, gas stations, etc. The need for freeway commuter vehicles will plummet.

(6.) For business, the natural fleet vehicle for transpo and deliveries is a BEV - Amazon is already building 100,000 of them -because they're software controlled, easy to manage, have few parts, have short supply chains, and easy to predict fuel prices because you can make your own. See #1-#5.

(7.) Further, the entire auto and truck market has already re-tooled that way, they're not going to suddenly reverse, so we'll only see an acceleration of that trend which in ~2 years will create massive economies of scale for BEVs, not to mention local jobs. (e.g., developers can test harness full-scale BEVs in their garage all day long and network results)

(8.) Telsa is the American tech leader, with American factories, and American jobs - that means short, local supply chains. Ford is already shifting to this model with Rivian and GM is kinda fucked. We'll probably see one or more of the other American BEV startups rise up.

(9.) The federal government will invest in and support American BEVs and local e-industry because that's where the industry is going anyway, America is the current technology and manufacturing leader, and it creates thousands (maybe millions) of local jobs with local supply chains. (e.g., car build, solar build & installs, battery build and installs, power grid / power plant re-tooling, et al)

(10.) Cheap oil today is due to a dying international industry blowing its load because they know it's over at scale ... BUT local scale oil production will continue and grow for industrial use (e.g., US shale) ... but for transpo and autos we'll soon see a ICE-to-BEV price inversion as BEVs build in scale and costs fall. Then comes ICE parts shortages both due to long supply chains, and forecasted decreased demand (see cost management and risk mitigation) - heck we might even ICE parts shortages in a few months ...


None of any of this is new or unprecedented - it's happened this way for eons over and over - most recently with transition from horses to cars: in 1900 ICE cars were a fantasy, in 1930 young city kids had no idea there ever were horses there.

That's not what I'd pick, but it's what's going to happen, which is why if TSLA gets a "2" or "1" in front of the share price, future transpo/energy millionaires will have probably been those investors who knew that was the time to get in.
guss your point

(6.) For business, the natural fleet vehicle for transpo and deliveries is a BEV - Amazon is already building 100,000 of them -because they're software controlled, easy to manage, have few parts, have short supply chains, and easy to predict fuel prices because you can make your own. See #1-#5

my point

the capital investment required for effecting that change the charging points required etc will cost gazillions and 'lets buy mega expensive trucks with limited ranges and lets install thousands of charging points' as opposed to 'lets use the man with a rickety old van' the latter argument will win for most firms.
The latter will give employment to many who were laid off etc.
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      03-19-2020, 02:21 PM   #3380
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my point

the capital investment required for effecting that change the charging points required etc will cost gazillions
Well, (a.) it's already happening, see any latest press release by any major auto company not to mention all the startups - and Amazon is doing it and soon they'll own a shitton of retail and a majority of the deliveries, and

(b.) we actually know almost exactly what it will cost because of all the people building the BEVs and all of the charging points already installed. In sunny climes it's actually a profit center because they sell the power back to the grid (grid's peaker plants cost 10x more), not to mention an expanding economy LOVES new construction!

So, yeah, this is happening. Now's the time to get in! (well not RIGHT NOW, but soon ...)
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-20-2020, 06:18 AM   #3381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineWhite_SJ View Post
Apparently the county sheriff disagrees that Tesla is a critical business and will have to scale back to minimum basic operation only in the bay area. We're all gonna see how good their liquidity is with production slowed and potentially big slide in demand.
Good for the sheriff, because we're all about to see how good all of our liquidity is, period.

Musk - and frank herbert - say fear is the mind-killer ... well, COVID19 is the lung killer. and also the heart-killer. and we're beginning to see <50 year old killer.

and if all of America doesn't immediately go into shelter-in-place, [COLOR="Blue"]we're going see more dead than all US wars combined.[/COLOR]

The other scenario is, Americans listen to science, shelter-in-place and the death rate plummets to hardly observable ... BUT in that case it'll seem like we're doing it all for nothing because no deaths - so Americans likely won't do that because [ buh buh buh the flu! buh buh buh 1% death rate! yeah, only if there's hospital capacity, otherwise 2 in 10 need it, can't get it, and die, so death rate skyrockets ] so ...

Call me a pessimist, but my confidence in Americans ability to gather, understand, and react to data (vs narrative) is pretty low, so I'd say we're looking at a medium to high death-rate and economically 2nd Great Depression, with probably a 25%-30% unemployment rate.

Every business is about to be strained to its limits, including Tesla - with all of that said, Tesla will likely be one of the few short-term winners coming out all of this for the reasons I said above:

* A work-from-home, heavy-deliveries, compromised supply chain economy favors BEVs

* Solar = plentiful, self-sufficient, micro-local energy and fuel

* BEVs = fewer parts, local factories, local supply chains

* Tesla BEVs = software controlled, networked, fleet optimized

Sadly, coronavirus will kill a lot of things, and one of them will be ICE vehicles.
Good one throwing in the Dune reference

I'm gonna have to agree that this could become the 2nd Great Depression. It's a total disaster for every industry.
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      03-20-2020, 09:23 AM   #3382
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my point

the capital investment required for effecting that change the charging points required etc will cost gazillions
Well, (a.) it's already happening, see any latest press release by any major auto company not to mention all the startups - and Amazon is doing it and soon they'll own a shitton of retail and a majority of the deliveries, and

(b.) we actually know almost exactly what it will cost because of all the people building the BEVs and all of the charging points already installed. In sunny climes it's actually a profit center because they sell the power back to the grid (grid's peaker plants cost 10x more), not to mention an expanding economy LOVES new construction!

So, yeah, this is happening. Now's the time to get in! (well not RIGHT NOW, but soon ...)
people will go back to being themselves in a year or so. they will be poorer and less able to afford stuff. they will be less likely to indulge in luxuries such as new bev cars(or ice cars). I fail to see how poorer countries and poorer people and poorer businesses are going to say right lets invest in electric.
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      03-20-2020, 05:02 PM   #3383
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
my point

the capital investment required for effecting that change the charging points required etc will cost gazillions
Well, (a.) it's already happening, see any latest press release by any major auto company not to mention all the startups - and Amazon is doing it and soon they'll own a shitton of retail and a majority of the deliveries, and

(b.) we actually know almost exactly what it will cost because of all the people building the BEVs and all of the charging points already installed. In sunny climes it's actually a profit center because they sell the power back to the grid (grid's peaker plants cost 10x more), not to mention an expanding economy LOVES new construction!

So, yeah, this is happening. Now's the time to get in! (well not RIGHT NOW, but soon ...)
people will go back to being themselves in a year or so. they will be poorer and less able to afford stuff. they will be less likely to indulge in luxuries such as new bev cars(or ice cars). I fail to see how poorer countries and poorer people and poorer businesses are going to say right lets invest in electric.
Gasoline is cheap and crude prices will continue to fall. This is the end of the BEV.
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      03-20-2020, 11:26 PM   #3384
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Gasoline is cheap and crude prices will continue to fall. This is the end of the BEV.
Pretty amazing that after so many months of trolling BEV threads you still think energy cost is the main benefit of these cars. As if you never actually read what BEV owners say.
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      03-21-2020, 08:39 AM   #3385
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Pretty amazing that after so many months of trolling BEV threads you still think energy cost is the main benefit of these cars. As if you never actually read what BEV owners say.
I can't think of any benefit to EV
They are heavy
They are inefficient
They are inconvenient

I might as well drive an electric fork lift around town.
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      03-21-2020, 09:20 AM   #3386
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Seems like a good idea so... WHATTHEFUCK ARE YOU WAITING FOR!?!

"Elon Musk: Tesla 'will make ventilators if there is a shortage'".....and there's a profit!
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      03-21-2020, 02:22 PM   #3387
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"Elon Musk: Tesla 'will make ventilators if there is a shortage'".....and there's a profit!
Many Canadians are socialists I suppose - I'd agree there can be a few benefits to it, and especially easy to see now ... as they say, in a bull market everyone's a capitalist, in recession, everyone's a socialist. That said, I'll always be a private industry guy - especially when you look at what SpaceX has been able to do that government hasn't.

In any event, yeah, Musk continues to insist there are plenty of ventilators while hospitals in NYC are doubling up and Seattle and California are screaming for more. The guy is completely denying reality - maybe that's his superpower ... if so it works in capitalism, not so much during a pandemic.
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      03-21-2020, 02:39 PM   #3388
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Gasoline is cheap and crude prices will continue to fall. This is the end of the BEV.
For the reasons I said (supply chain length, parts availability, risk management, fleet delivery vehicles driving costs down, American jobs, auto mfrs already re-tooled for BEVs, et al), I may wager this will be the birth of BEVs, but it's hard to predict given how unprecedented this all is ...

I'd be more bullish if American had wide-spread, frequent covid testing and contact tracing - that's how the Asian countries are working their way out of an economic pause - but in America we don't have that, at least not yet, so the only option is mass temporary lock-downs.

What a temporary stop does is pile a new American supply shock on top the existing Asian supply shock, and coming European supply shock - that's a big problem because even dumping helicopter money on people can't help if there's no supply of anything to buy, so people will just bid up prices on TP.

On the other hand, if you don't helicopter money, then you tempt a deflationary depression which would be absolutely devastating.

And in the mean time, we keep getting the drip, drip, drip of now what? with no relief in sight, and no federal messaging about what to expect when.

All of this will likely depress auto sales enormously and trigger defaults, repos, and lease returns which will flood the market - if that happens, I don't think there's any way to predict what rises out of those ashes ...

So the hope for the auto (and every) industry is America gets moving fast on frequent, wide-spread covid testing and contact tracing so we can get people back to work!
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 03-21-2020 at 03:00 PM..
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