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      03-28-2020, 09:44 AM   #3587
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
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Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Anyone living in an apartment would be foolish to buy a car the price of a remotely new bmw or Tesla.
Why?
Second that too. I am
Puzzled by that comment as well..
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      03-28-2020, 09:48 AM   #3588
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Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier View Post
You think he realizes some people live in apartments/condominiums intentionally? 🤔
What, someone might choose to live in an apartment or condo? And that building might be in a nice enough area that owning a nice car might be another choice they make? I'm going to have to take this away for a bit to consider it.
Doesn't that sound as to why someone would be so dumb to put all their money into a money losing single family home?

Some of us have chosen to live in a comfortable and spacious apartment in the best part of town (Where you can walk practically anywhere) and still have a daily round trip commute under 10 miles.

I don't like the cost and upkeep of houses down here for reasons I am not going to get Into. And I am not the kind of guy that enjoys mowing lawn and do gardening all weekend long.
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      03-28-2020, 09:55 AM   #3589
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Originally Posted by Obioban View Post
Anyone living in an apartment would be foolish to buy a car the price of a remotely new bmw or Tesla.
If I go to my local apartment complex i bet i can take a photo of at least 100 bmw/mercs/audi. Hell I know a few of them on M and AMG cars from passing it everyday to work.
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      03-28-2020, 10:03 AM   #3590
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Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Doesn't that sound as to why someone would be so dumb to put all their money into a money losing single family home?

Some of us have chosen to live in a comfortable and spacious apartment in the best part of town (Where you can walk practically anywhere) and still have a daily round trip commute under 10 miles.

I don't like the cost and upkeep of houses down here for reasons I am not going to get Into. And I am not the kind of guy that enjoys mowing lawn and do gardening all weekend long.
In NJ rent and mortgage prices are similar once you slap the propery tax on. Many apartments include some utility and some people don't like the maintenance part of home ownership. Then you have people who rent small studios to live near work but their real home during the weekend is 2 hours away. I'm not one of them since I do own a home but I would not disparage someone for wanting to live in a nice apartment or near work for cheap.

Last edited by NormanConquest; 03-28-2020 at 10:27 AM..
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      03-28-2020, 12:11 PM   #3591
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Religion is a modern construct of trying to explain the metaphysical; the explanation gets translated into a set of rules to govern oneself (i.e. society). For the rules to work, one must believe in an ultimate judge of character.
Now this is just bullshit. The rules of modern society do not come from some metaphysical mumbo-jumbo. They exist because any other society that tried to live without them is now extinct. Plain old social darwinism.

The rules you get from religion are extra, an unnecessary burden. And they're easy to separate from the rules that are actually required in a society. Do not kill - every society has it therefore not religious. Marriage is one man and one woman - plenty of societies work fine without this rule, so it's a religious extra, unnecessary. No interest on loans - again, a religious extra, unnecessary. Caring for children and elderly is universal - not religious. Men are leaders, women obey them - religion. Do not eat cows - religion. Etc. etc.

I don't believe in a god. None of my friends, and no one in our families do. Still, we all follow the rules of the society that are not based on religion, and we're doing fine - no one is a criminal, our kids grow up and become good people, we have good jobs and care about doing good things for the others and for the humanity as a whole. Religion is unnecessary.
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      03-29-2020, 11:47 AM   #3592
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      03-29-2020, 04:29 PM   #3593
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I know you think your positions on everything Tesla are absolute, fine.
No, I think my positions on Tesla are based on actual real live data and macros vs emotions, ideology, religion, and buh-buh-buh-the-libs that others choose.

As for everything else you wrote, well the data disagrees with you, which is why reinsurance has been modeling and pricing climate change in for decades, and their predictions have been right year after year for decades (and will continue to be) because you don't need to be precise, just directionally accurate.

Science is always about observation, modeling (theories), and prediction - and all models are wrong, but some are useful. Well the climate models that reinsurance uses have been useful because they've been right. This is because they care about money more than buh-buh-buh-the-libs that 99.9% of climate-change deniers do.

The Chinese, btw, don't care about buh-buh-buh-the-libs either - they're more than happy to take the lead on electric power to own the 'mericans.

So it's pretty simple: America will either take the electric lead, or follow, on this global energy revolution. Since the data indicates America should lead, I'm confident most Americans will ignore it to own the libs and be followers, and then blame the failure on something equally ridiculous.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-29-2020, 04:54 PM   #3594
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I can back this up. I also have yet to notice an apartment complex with chargers. Actually, I'd bet there's one someplace
New Jersey also didn't used to have gas stations - then some entrepreneurs saw a coming demand so they met the supply. Probably made a ton of dough. (more about supply and demand in a bit ...)
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Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier View Post
Plus if I were to live there, how many charging spots are there? What happens when 5+ residents own EVs,... [and, and, and, what if, what if, what if ]
Never been to a busy gas station, huh? They only have a limited number of spots AND you have to drive to them, sometimes miles!

Anyway, you've probably already figured this out for yourself, but here's how it works for those that haven't:

* buildings install e-spots on an as-needed basis (because it's easy - it's basic electrical work), sometimes this is partially charged to the tenet, sometimes not, depends on the business on what product they want. e.g., a friend moved into a place that had e-spot installs built into the forms - was installed for his Tesla 1 day later.

* cities install them on an as-needed basis in public parking / meter spots because it's easy, cheap, and it's a money maker.

* private businesses install them on an as-needed basis because it's easy, cheap and a money maker.

Some might call this the unbundling of the gas station convenience store - many business owners have realized they can grow their in-store revenue by installing e-spots which encourage people to stay awhile. Why not shop longer? Why not have breakfast? Why not pick that other hotel? etc.

It all works on a principle of capitalism: supply and demand. If you want to get fancy, you could call it a 2-sided network: the more e-spots, the more encouraged people are to buy BEVs; or, the more BEVs, the more encouraged business owners are to install e-spots.

Just like gas stations popped up all over America's new highway system in the 1950s, so will charging locations start popping up all over - and not just for vehicles! I foresee a ton of new accessory products flooding the market including portable generators. For example, my Goal Zero 1000 takes 18 hours to charge with the standard plug in, but with 2 fast charges it takes about an hour.

In other news, check out Gotham Garage's custom e-dragster pinto!


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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-29-2020, 05:33 PM   #3595
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What decades?
The last 30 years. Finance has been forecasting and pricing on climate models for 30 years, and they've been right every year, which is why they make so much damn money.

Ideologues are looking for some massively precise and accurate model which, ironically, even if it existed and worked, would be ignored or forgotten anyway because that's how ideology works.

Actual science works on precision with increasing levels of accuracy - for example Newton's law of gravity works great! Pretty precise, just not as accurate as relativity, but still gets you into the right neighborhood. So, yes, climate models aren't super accurate, BUT THEY ARE PRECISE, or precise enough to tell us more/less what's going to happen macroscopically, and that's good enough to make money on.

Further, it's good enough for the Chinese to make money on, and good enough for the bulk of millennials to agree with.

So, net-net, Tesla wins, China will probably win the electric energy revolution, and everyone betting against electric energy (like lots of Americans) loses. I just can't tell you with accuracy how much they'll lose.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      03-29-2020, 06:07 PM   #3596
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guss-insurance firms making money factoring in climate change,- have no idea what that is pardon my ignorance.
and
whats that to do with mass ev adoption etc.
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      03-29-2020, 06:53 PM   #3597
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
guss-insurance firms making money factoring in climate change,- have no idea what that is pardon my ignorance.
and
whats that to do with mass ev adoption etc.
EV adoption is being driven by public policy (ie Regulations). It's happening whether people like it or not. Eventually for the majority of urban/suburban residents an EV will become the only option for personal (non-commercial) vehicles. I will dead or too old to care.
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      03-30-2020, 01:14 AM   #3598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
guss-insurance firms making money factoring in climate change,- have no idea what that is pardon my ignorance.
and
whats that to do with mass ev adoption etc.
EV adoption is being driven by public policy (ie Regulations). It's happening whether people like it or not. Eventually for the majority of urban/suburban residents an EV will become the only option for personal (non-commercial) vehicles. I will dead or too old to care.
It'll never be the only option.
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      03-31-2020, 05:37 PM   #3599
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Eh, sounds good, but you have accuracy and precision backwards. Climate models can't even accurately predict the current climate let alone be precise.
probably. but here's the thing:

On climate change, if you want to follow the data, whose models are likely closer to correct? Rando arm wavers with qualitative guesswork, or people that bet all their money and livelihoods on their data being right every day, and year after year have been right for 30 years?

I'll take the latter, with former reserved for the religious, ideological, and selectively ignorant.


In Tesla news, looks like TSLA is getting hammered on deliveries:



Q2 is going to be terrifying in too many ways
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      03-31-2020, 05:41 PM   #3600
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
In Tesla news, looks like TSLA is getting hammered on deliveries:
It's everyone. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21C38N

But Tesla sales are disproportionately in more urban and therefore more likely to be under stay-at-home areas.
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      03-31-2020, 09:30 PM   #3601
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It's everyone. But Tesla sales are disproportionately in more urban and therefore more likely to be under stay-at-home areas.
True, although you gotta wonder ... if cv19 lock-downs keep up (and there's almost no possibility they won't), how hammered will TSLA be?

So subtracting cv19, deliveries were looking at 125k/qtr, now they're down to ~85k, let's say in Q2 that drops another 20% to 68k, and drops again in Q3 to ~54k and again in Q4 to about ~43k = 250k deliveries for the year, half of their target, and that's in (what i'd guess) is a conservative case scenario.

Those are 2017 numbers and starting to feel like bail-out territory without some other investor cash.

Granted Chinese deliveries could surprise, but if they don't, I'm not sure I see how TSLA avoids a serious crash.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      03-31-2020, 09:38 PM   #3602
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post

For us to think we are smart enough to manipulate the climate for better or for worst is a concept borne out of the modern era where Western people have advanced to the state of boredom. We Western people have too little to worry about, so we turn to worrying about the climate. Where people used to think God would kick their ass, they now believe the climate is going to kick their ass. Hence, this is where the Religious Left come into the picture. They believe their climate-protective behavior will please the climate change Judge. They are forcing their construct of climate-protective behavior on the rest of us. Forcing the change to EV and banning the internal combustion engine and burning of carbon fuel via policy is no different demanding people say the Rosary to get into heaven.

That's why I believe climate change has become a religion.
Religion has played a huge role in my life. I attended parochial schools my entire adolescent life and currently send my kids to the same type of schools. I think this is a very very interesting idea. The "Religious Left" (RL) appeasing the "climate change Judge" and Climate Change Deniers (CCD) actually have very much in common.

The RL use their "faith" as a coping mechanism for dealing with a difficult issue. ie, if they drive an EV, recycle, reduce their carbon footprint etc then they will appease the climate change Judge and feel like they are saving the world.

The CCD also use their "faith" as a coping mechanism in dealing with a difficult issue. ie we are not capable/smart enough to manipulate climate or there is no such thing as climate change.

So where does this idea come from, that we aren't smart enough to manipulate the climate? Is it humility in the face of a religious God? Is there a study that says we don't know how to change climate? Or, is it that our actions have consequences that might be beyond our complete understanding?
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      03-31-2020, 10:01 PM   #3603
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      03-31-2020, 10:14 PM   #3604
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
True, although you gotta wonder ... if cv19 lock-downs keep up (and there's almost no possibility they won't), how hammered will TSLA be?

So subtracting cv19, deliveries were looking at 125k/qtr, now they're down to ~85k, let's say in Q2 that drops another 20% to 68k, and drops again in Q3 to ~54k and again in Q4 to about ~43k = 250k deliveries for the year, half of their target, and that's in (what i'd guess) is a conservative case scenario.

Those are 2017 numbers and starting to feel like bail-out territory without some other investor cash.

Granted Chinese deliveries could surprise, but if they don't, I'm not sure I see how TSLA avoids a serious crash.
Yeah, we have to be thinking that this is going to be a long term recession/depression scenario and if people aren't even able to commute to work, it would really decrease demand for Tesla's (at least here in CA). Everywhere else, I would think people will hold back on big purchases and with gas as cheap as it is, there isn't a lot of incentive to get an EV in this environment.
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      03-31-2020, 10:23 PM   #3605
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Eh, sounds good, but you have accuracy and precision backwards. Climate models can't even accurately predict the current climate let alone be precise.
You are confusing weather with climate.
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      03-31-2020, 10:31 PM   #3606
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You are confusing weather with climate.
Du, duh, dumb, dumbs everywhere man. Everyone thinks they're smart until they're not lol
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      03-31-2020, 10:57 PM   #3607
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Originally Posted by MFNATIK View Post
Yeah, we have to be thinking that this is going to be a long term recession/depression scenario and if people aren't even able to commute to work, it would really decrease demand for Tesla's (at least here in CA). Everywhere else, I would think people will hold back on big purchases and with gas as cheap as it is, there isn't a lot of incentive to get an EV in this environment.
Long term Tesla has a chance for a strong win at this game: after the pandemic, there will be a real distaste for public transportation, especially larger types like buses and subway trains. People will buy more cars (helps Tesla equally with everyone else), those who can't buy will look for car sharing (the first company to succeed with autonomous driving will own this market), and The Boring Company's tunnels built for small cars will look more appealing to the general public than large subways.

Tesla just needs to ride over the crisis, and the cost of that to the company is the current unknown.
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      04-01-2020, 01:19 AM   #3608
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Long term Tesla has a chance for a strong win at this game: after the pandemic, there will be a real distaste for public transportation,
I'm with you on most of this, although I think the win will be a new energy revolution: solar + lithium (or whatever new better storage comes along) and it's pretty much already started ... you're seeing auto customizers, camping/outdoor rec companies, off-the-grid preppers, #VanLife people, et al all jumping into electric energy products and services. It's a pretty straight line to "dude, why are you fucking with all that fuel and shit? Just charge an e-powerstation in the truck on the way there, then solar it for the weekend"

Further, with the success of Tesla's Australian power plant experiment - which is 10x cheaper than today's peaker plants - and China's push into all facets of electric, makes electric a core part of coming infrastructure ... I think the e-energy revolution rocket is launched ...

And then let's talk oil ...

(1.) I don't think most people's primary reason in buying a Tesla is energy cost (S & X are 70K+ luxo barges!), it just happens to be a side benefit - I would call it an optionality benefit - so gas price probably isn't much correlated to Tesla sales.

(2.) Cheap oil starts crushing states like Texas and Alaska (not to mention shale states) - because it kills their tax revenues (e.g., TX processes 40% of America's crude, that's a lot of jobs and tax revenue!). Thus if prices stay low for long, states will have to diversify ... and what better way for TX than to jump into the new energy revolution with a Tesla plant?

(3.) Increasing storms and weather severity (and fires in CA, OR, WA) are driving people to look energy self-sufficiency - a nice solar setup means a power loss doesn't matter to you, add in an electric car and you don't need to worry about fuel either.

(4.) Millennials like ESG investing which is why Big Oil share prices have lagged pre-price war and cv19.

In short, oil isn't a safety play anymore:

* It's got a long, hugely complicated, supply chain
* It requires tons of middlemen and labor to make useful
* It has unpredictable pricing
* It's subject to supply (and price, duh) manipulation
* It's "old tech" and unpalatable to a non-negligible portion of investors and customers which is growing

TLDR: electric energy + solar/battery + starlink is the magic equation that's Tesla's future regardless of what happens with oil prices ... if TSLA survives cv19 which is probably 50/50.
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