[E92inNC]

I think most if not everyone here is aware of the recent stories about the car market in 2024- oversupply, increased repos, possible economic downturn, etc. I’m already seeing the effects with the disappearance of market adjustments and the return of low to 0% interest financing and rebates.

I’m looking into getting a CT200h as a daily beater. I’m thinking of waiting until summer time to get one but I think that even if there is a downturn in the car market, it won’t have a noticeable impact on Lexus as it would most other brands. Any thoughts on if I should wait it out to possibly save a few thousand bucks?

Also, if anyone owns one, any concerns on the hybrid battery and what it cost you to replace? I’m targeting 2013-16 with 60-120k miles.

[MassWholeBimmer]

...hummmm.. Maybe I'll get that F150 king ranch I've had my eye on....

[Bc2005]

I expect that if there is any oversupply it will be at the high end price levels. Many of the new cars and trucks have added so many features that there are relatively few moderately priced vehicles. Everyone (mostly ) loves the new features and gadgets, but average car prices are going up faster than salaries.

AFAIK, hybrid and full-electric car batteries are warranted for 10 years. This means the cars will be cheaper when they are nearing 10 years, but I don't expect the price to drop like a rock. It's all a matter of risk vs. price, and it will probably be very similar to buying a very high mileage car.

[whofelt]

I would wait until mid 2024 if you're thinking of buying a new car.

[E92inNC]

Whoops, left out that the CT would be a second car that I’d daily, the E92 isn’t going anywhere.

[Alfisti]

Lower priced cars, to my eye, are holding or even increasing. Money is tight, there's fierce demand in the "lower end reliable" market. newer high end cars are where the savings are.

[BMW F22]

I hope it craters. Been looking at a Cayman/718 GTS/GT4 and they’re stupidly priced still. I refuse to buy into the hype, just like how I didn’t buy into the Rolex hype fomo stuff.

Example: https://mart.pca.org/ads/64527

Great car but asking over sticker for a soon to be 8 year old car? Come on…

[vreihen16]

The crazy used car market caused by COVID and the chip shortage has mostly corrected itself.

The bigger problem is financing something older than a 2016 model. Credit unions and competitive banks won't write a 5-year note on them, and jack the interest rates because of the financing risks with older vehicles. If the buyer wants to pay almost usury interest rates, they would probably be better off buying/leasing new.

If you have cash or can pay on a 36-month note, you will probably find that prices will plummet on ~7 year-old cars because financing becomes an issue for those who can't.....

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

The crazy used car market caused by COVID and the chip shortage has mostly corrected itself.

Corrected itself in terms of supply, or price? Prices are still sky high. See my example above.

[vreihen16]

Definitely in price for what I've been tracking. No more 5+ year old used cars selling for more than new ones.....

[chassis]

Originally Posted by E92inNC

I think most if not everyone here is aware of the recent stories about the car market in 2024- oversupply, increased repos, possible economic downturn, etc. I’m already seeing the effects with the disappearance of market adjustments and the return of low to 0% interest financing and rebates.

I’m looking into getting a CT200h as a daily beater. I’m thinking of waiting until summer time to get one but I think that even if there is a downturn in the car market, it won’t have a noticeable impact on Lexus as it would most other brands. Any thoughts on if I should wait it out to possibly save a few thousand bucks?

Also, if anyone owns one, any concerns on the hybrid battery and what it cost you to replace? I’m targeting 2013-16 with 60-120k miles.

The used car market is softening, the Manheim index is at a level last seen 3+ years ago. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...es-episode-16/

If you need a car now, buy it. If you don't, wait. Prices will likely be lower in 6 months than they are now. There are always exceptions - highly desirable cars will likely always be desirable and in limited supply with elevated prices. Examples include certain AMGs, M-cars, 911, Lambo, Ferrari, etc.

The U.S. economy is strong now and I don't see a crater but rather a continued softening in preowned vehicle prices. In 2024 the auto industry has the opportunity for a somewhat "normal" year as long as it doesn't self-inflict wounds on itself, for example a labor strike.

[nerdogray]

I don't think anything is going to happen. Same for housing. I wish it *would* happen. We keep hearing it.. bubble, bubble, bubble. Well this thing is fucking cast iron, then.

[bosstones]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

I hope it craters. Been looking at a Cayman/718 GTS/GT4 and they’re stupidly priced still. I refuse to buy into the hype, just like how I didn’t buy into the Rolex hype fomo stuff.

Ha! Been looking a Caymans as well, except more interested in a 981. Hoping prices come down to satiate my 1st world problem/need.

[JMcLellan]

I think the enticement and availability of reduced interest rates will do a lot to hold prices. Assuming that's what will happen in 2024 and beyond. This will be a great thread to back reference in about 6 months.

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Been looking at a Cayman/718 GTS/GT4 and they’re stupidly priced still.

I can't recall the last time prices and availability of Porsche models with 'GT' in their names made any sense to those of us in the BMW bracket.

[allinon72]

I've learned not to try to time the market. From about 2015 up until Covid, an imminent crash in the used vehicle market was all anyone could ever talk about. It never materialized despite overwhelming data to suggest that it would. Then Covid hit and sent everything batshit crazy.

Prices have been correcting for the last 8-10 months but inflation alone will keep prices high. And believe it or not, people are still buying, even at higher rates. It's human nature to talk about a "crash" as if it will be an overnight sensation, like we wake up one day and vehicles are 30% lower. Doesn't work like that, prices fall over time and there is significant slack in the market that needs to be worked out.

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by allinon72

I've learned not to try to time the market. From about 2015 up until Covid, an imminent crash in the used vehicle market was all anyone could ever talk about. It never materialized despite overwhelming data to suggest that it would. Then Covid hit and sent everything batshit crazy.

Prices have been correcting for the last 8-10 months but inflation alone will keep prices high. And believe it or not, people are still buying, even at higher rates. It's human nature to talk about a "crash" as if it will be an overnight sensation, like we wake up one day and vehicles are 30% lower. Doesn't work like that, prices fall over time and there is significant slack in the market that needs to be worked out.

Agreed on the last part. It will take time, and I know better than to rush into buying a highly priced used vehicle right now. Makes no sense that a 2015/2016 Cayman GTS goes for $80-90K, and a 2016 GT4 goes for $110-120K. People can buy if they can afford it. I’ll wait as I don’t think they’re worth that much. $100K+ for a Cayman? It’s just silly.

[NickyC]

I've been waiting for this whole shit show to implode since 2008, we still haven't paid for the sins of that time period (or hell the dot com bubble if you want to keep going back).

I'm starting to think I'll die before this debt ponzi implodes, they can keep printing far longer than I can stay above room temperature.

TLDR: Buy what you want now and don't worry about it, doomers suck and are almost always wrong. I got tired of being wrong all the time and waiting for economic doom, and started buying the dip. Wish I had done it sooner.

[gilberjj]

I’ve been watching the e9x market closely after selling my e92 last year. It seems like it’s softened a lot.

[c1pher]

As always, some brands will suffer more than others. FCA will definitely see price decline. Porsche…..not so much. It’s considered a win if you can escape a Porsche dealer for just MSRP. Obviously some of the more pedestrian models like base Macans and Cayennes will see some discounting but I think getting any GT car at a discount will continue to be unlikely.

[tom2021]

Any 0% financing for new cars?

[Alfisti]

Those of you chasing Caymans, considered a well sorted 997 series 911 for about $50K?