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      04-05-2020, 09:09 PM   #4071
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
This should show us that the "new normal" won't last long. We are right in the middle of this and people are already forgetting.

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/cruis...21-coronavirus
I sure hope you're right, and I hope to see everyone back in the restaurants, malls, grocery stores, etc. as soon as possible.
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      04-05-2020, 09:25 PM   #4072
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So if the 86% rule is correct it seems america has peak today and we should start seeing a slow down in serious cases.

Calculation is showing

627,397 infected
9,634 deaths
307,548 recover or mild and not needing hospital
Resolved Death 3%
Open cases 49.4%
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      04-05-2020, 09:29 PM   #4073
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theoretically. if we do not see decline by week's end then we are still heading for the crest not the trough.
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      04-05-2020, 09:38 PM   #4074
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
theoretically. if we do not see decline by week's end then we are still heading for the crest not the trough.
if it the exponential growth keeps up both on new cases and serious cases then the disease is more serious and more contagious then the lancet report has indicated. Or the numbers have hit the max cases that can be discover in a day due to testing limitation.

I'm just trying to be optimistic that we hopefully finally broke the back of this disease.

I know several sites say NY is suppose to peak tomorrow and NJ suppose to peak on the 11th
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      04-05-2020, 10:32 PM   #4075
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Already posted? Article is a few days old so likely nothing getting by you hawks. Opinion on this seems to sway violently from basically useless in treating the disease to the only thing saving folks who would otherwise be goners.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...ve-therapy-do/
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      04-05-2020, 10:56 PM   #4076
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Originally Posted by turboawd View Post
That's all cnn does. Look for anything they don't like that trump does, and ignore anything good done.
All they did was put what he said next to what was actually happening at the time he said it. No discussion of his actions whatsoever, neither positive nor negative, only his words against the facts.
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      04-05-2020, 10:56 PM   #4077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NormanConquest View Post
So if the 86% rule is correct it seems america has peak today and we should start seeing a slow down in serious cases.

Calculation is showing

627,397 infected
9,634 deaths
307,548 recover or mild and not needing hospital
Resolved Death 3%
Open cases 49.4%
Honestly, how can we be anywhere near a peak? This damned thing really hasn't taken off in any major cities besides just a few. I mean it's great that Bill Gates of all people is even lowering his death estimate below that of the White House, but this seems premature to me.

You know I'm all for this thing being overblown and hysteria driven, but I just don't see how we get out of this without many more weeks of increased deaths and infections. I think we can all agree that there are many places in this country that aren't taking the lock downs too seriously, so I just can't fathom we're anywhere near the peak.

Hopefully I'm wrong as usual, there's enough loss and sadness as it is.

Bill Gates reference btw: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bill...-scenario.html
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      04-05-2020, 10:59 PM   #4078
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Data sources:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6 (primary source of real time data, but bad graphs)
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ (not real time but much more useful graphs)
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (the model used by the WH)
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      04-05-2020, 11:07 PM   #4079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
Honestly, how can we be anywhere near a peak? This damned thing really hasn't taken off in any major cities besides just a few. I mean it's great that Bill Gates of all people is even lowering his death estimate below that of the White House, but this seems premature to me.

You know I'm all for this thing being overblown and hysteria driven, but I just don't see how we get out of this without many more weeks of increased deaths and infections. I think we can all agree that there are many places in this country that aren't taking the lock downs too seriously, so I just can't fathom we're anywhere near the peak.

Hopefully I'm wrong as usual, there's enough loss and sadness as it is.

Bill Gates reference btw: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bill...-scenario.html
I actually agree with you. Until a vaccine is available, this will continue to spread throughout the population. The short term exponential rise may slow down, but I don't see how the math supports these lower numbers. I guess it all depends on when you think the "outbreak is under control".

I would say it is possible we are near the peak infection rate in terms of cases per day. NYC's population density is very high and it was hit relatively early.

Last edited by chris719; 04-05-2020 at 11:21 PM..
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      04-05-2020, 11:26 PM   #4080
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
Sorry, I'll believe the governor of CT over some total nutjob.
From the Hartford Courant

https://www.courant.com/breaking-new...rua-story.html

Quote:
An official cause of death remains outstanding pending toxicology results, and officials said it is possible the child died not from the virus but from an underlying condition, sudden infant death syndrome or positional asphyxiation.

In the absence of that official determination Friday, Lamont and Connecticut State Epidemiologist Matthew Cartter retreated from directly connecting the cause of the infant’s death to the virus.
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      04-05-2020, 11:26 PM   #4081
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
Chesterfield!! The Wal Mart and Target parking lots in the Valley! I hope these are just some oddball occurrences, no excuse for this! FYI went to a shooting range and had some BBQ today at Sharp Shooters off Gravois. Like you said, everything looked typical. I was surprised at the amount of traffic out too, looked like a fairly normal Sunday. Got my AUG A3 sighted in real well at 25 too!

I've got my skull/bones/camo face coverings coming in on Tuesday I think. I rarely leave the house since I work remote and just stock up once every couple weeks at the grocery story. I'll cover my nose/mouth however so as to not freak people out, it's crazy how on edge people are right now. Personally I think it's ridiculous of course, but might as well go with the flow in regards to nose/mouth covering in public. I wouldn't be surprised if grocery stores etc. make everybody cover their nose/mouths before coming in anyway pretty soon.
Sharpshooters is a great place. I picked up a Glock from there about a month ago and wish I got to the range more than I do because they have one of the best setups in the area I think.
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      04-05-2020, 11:28 PM   #4082
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Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
Sharpshooters is a great place. I picked up a Glock from there about a month ago and wish I got to the range more than I do because they have one of the best setups in the area I think.
They’re still open! Five in the range max and only one person per lane but they’re open!
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      04-05-2020, 11:45 PM   #4083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
I actually agree with you. Until a vaccine is available, this will continue to spread throughout the population. The short term exponential rise may slow down, but I don't see how the math supports these lower numbers. I guess it all depends on when you think the "outbreak is under control".

I would say it is possible we are near the peak infection rate in terms of cases per day. NYC's population density is very high and it was hit relatively early.

Your correct perhaps that the term i should have used
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      04-06-2020, 12:37 AM   #4084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
Now that's a better source.
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      04-06-2020, 04:53 AM   #4085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
I actually agree with you. Until a vaccine is available, this will continue to spread throughout the population. The short term exponential rise may slow down, but I don't see how the math supports these lower numbers. I guess it all depends on when you think the "outbreak is under control".

I would say it is possible we are near the peak infection rate in terms of cases per day. NYC's population density is very high and it was hit relatively early.
Until a vaccine is available, the peak is irrelevant. All it takes a few infected people somewhere in the civilized world to start this all over again.
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      04-06-2020, 05:08 AM   #4086
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
Data sources:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6 (primary source of real time data, but bad graphs)
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ (not real time but much more useful graphs)
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (the model used by the WH)
Evolution of COVID-19 - Officially confirmed cases and deaths:
  • Johns Hopkins University: here (desktop version) and here (mobile version)
  • Worldometer: here
  • World Health Organization: here
  • Our World in Data: here (see for example my earlier post here)
  • The New York Times: here (US data)
  • COVID-19.direct: here (US data)
  • 1Point3Acres: here (US data)
  • CDC: here (US data)
Evolution of COVID-19 - Spread patterns:
  • Nextstrain: here (charts) and here (narrative) (see for example my earlier post here)
Evolution of COVID-19 - Projections:
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      04-06-2020, 05:18 AM   #4087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schoy View Post
Until a vaccine is available, the peak is irrelevant. All it takes a few infected people somewhere in the civilized world to start this all over again.
Depends how long we are immune to it after we get it. If millions already had it (which is very plausible), it would be hard for it to spread at this type of rate again.
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      04-06-2020, 05:42 AM   #4088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
I sure hope you're right, and I hope to see everyone back in the restaurants, malls, grocery stores, etc. as soon as possible.
China seems to be on its way back to normal, and they have been through this many times.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/asia/...hnk/index.html
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      04-06-2020, 06:09 AM   #4089
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Dr.SHIVA Ayyadurai, MIT PhD. Inventor of Email Apr 4
Dr.SHIVA LIVE: We are at War. #FireFauci. End the Shutdown.

https://mobile.twitter.com/va_shiva/...ontrol-czar-dr

Thoughts?
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      04-06-2020, 06:16 AM   #4090
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
Chesterfield!! The Wal Mart and Target parking lots in the Valley! I hope these are just some oddball occurrences, no excuse for this! FYI went to a shooting range and had some BBQ today at Sharp Shooters off Gravois. Like you said, everything looked typical. I was surprised at the amount of traffic out too, looked like a fairly normal Sunday. Got my AUG A3 sighted in real well at 25 too!

I've got my skull/bones/camo face coverings coming in on Tuesday I think. I rarely leave the house since I work remote and just stock up once every couple weeks at the grocery story. I'll cover my nose/mouth however so as to not freak people out, it's crazy how on edge people are right now. Personally I think it's ridiculous of course, but might as well go with the flow in regards to nose/mouth covering in public. I wouldn't be surprised if grocery stores etc. make everybody cover their nose/mouths before coming in anyway pretty soon.
I miss Bogart's and Mission Taco! Not to mention Schlafly, Urban Chestnut, 4 Hands and Perennial.

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      04-06-2020, 06:26 AM   #4091
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The media and the Left want you to believe that the coronavirus in the United States is spiraling out of control the way it did in Europe. Fact check: it isn't.

Spain 2,934 cases per million people

Italy 2,150 cases per million

Germany 1,219 cases per million

US 1,030 cases per million

Source: Wikipedia
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      04-06-2020, 07:15 AM   #4092
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anglo View Post
The media and the Left want you to believe that the coronavirus in the United States is spiraling out of control the way it did in Europe. Fact check: it isn't.
Spain 2,934 cases per million people
Italy 2,150 cases per million
Germany 1,219 cases per million
US 1,030 cases per million
Source: Wikipedia
While you're at it, why not also calculating the fraction based on the world population as a way to 'minimize' the situation. Go ahead, here's a counter. However, should your significant other become part of the bad side of the COVID-19 statistics (hopefully not), you might sing a different tune. After every figure, there's a personal drama for the deceased and the loved ones.

And about control over the situation. Let's see by the end of this month how things have evolved. In the meantime, the better a lockdown is observed, the better the chance to avoid the situation from totally spiralling out of control.
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