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      01-29-2020, 05:36 PM   #3081
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capt Crunch View Post
Here's my hot take:

The utilization for cars, the second highest expenditure after a house, is in the single digits, which is ridiculously low. As car ownership becomes less of a thing (teenagers are happy to just take an uber), the utilization of cars will go significantly up through some flavor of rideshare. Imagine if cars has a 75% utilization rate.

Well at that point, the number of cars on the road is going to plummet, and the buyers aren't going to be normal human beings. Instead, the buyers will be like taxi companies (a future Uber) or the manufacturers themselves will transition to becoming transportation companies (as stated by Ford and GM CEOs) instead of manufacturers.

If the number of cars on the road is going to plummet, car manufacturers are going the way of airlines (I personally believe that Ford and GM can't coexist). Whoever transitions best (not necessarily fastest) to being a transportation company is going to win out. Technology and reliability are going to be the name of the game. Tesla is ahead of the game on the former, but the other OEMs are better at the latter.

learning to drive is a nostalgic thing passed down from patent to children
i remember being 10 and wishing i was 16 so i could drive.
That's how much I like it.
I don't know about future generations but feels like autopilot uber etc is a nail in the coffin of another human coming of age tradition.
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      01-29-2020, 05:40 PM   #3082
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i also feel that the younger generation are more idealistic ie wanting to use public transport uber to save the planet but have zero resilience. Once a blast of cold air hits their bottoms while waiting for a bus or uber a great proportion of them are likely to ditch any ideal and buy whatever car they can afford.
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      01-29-2020, 05:40 PM   #3083
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man... i hope hope no one shorted Tesla today lmao
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      01-29-2020, 08:12 PM   #3084
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Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
man... i hope hope no one shorted Tesla today lmao
Tesla is a recurring revenue business that's only just begun with the first prong, BEVs, which I don't believe will stay a niche market segment, and most customers will re-up just like Apple iPhone customers re-up.

With that, Tesla also has its other businesses: energy (solar/storage for home and superchargers), services (repair, maintenance, upgrades, etc), and transportation. Energy is likely to J-curve as it rides the industry wave, as is transportation ... let's look at that!

So we're talking the Tesla Semi-truck here basically which has (mostly) four competitors:

* Chanje
* Nikola
* Rivian
* Workhorse


Rivian is interesting being Amazon and Ford-backed with Ford planning to use Rivian as its BEV SUV platform and Amazon having 100,000 BEV delivery trucks on order. With that said, Rivian's platforms are all much smaller than the Tesla Class 8 size semi so Rivian is not really a long-haul competitor.

Chanje is also interesting as its already got a BEV truck in the market, but it's only got a 150 mile range with a 3 ton payload, however FebEx is planning to lease 1,000 of them. So another local market competitor, but not long-haul.

Workhorse is the UPS vendor version of Chanje with 1000 small delivery trucks on order from UPS, although also rumored to be bidding on a 200,000 truck order with the US Postal Service.

So basically these 3 (and one below!) are competing in the local package delivery markets, something Tesla doesn't really play in ... but interesting because they're all going directly at diesel ICE infrastructure ... you're talking at least 500,000 commercial vehicles all going BEV in the next few years.

Of the trucks considered in the review of electric trucks, just three compete in Tesla's large payload, long-distance-haul markets.

Nikola is a direct Tesla Semi competitor and hedging its bets with both
a BEV and hydrogen fuel cell version of its semi, with 14,000 supposedly releasing in 2021. Nikola has also been touting new battery technology with 2x more energy density but ... if they have such great battery tech, why the fuel cells and the hedging?

BYD is also a direct competitor and an existing player with short-range truck (125 miles) already in the market, but so far the limited range is not generating sales.

Volvo has a preview release of its Class 8 semi, but it looks much smaller and the charging network isn't there.

Daimler has a BEV semi with 250 mile range and delivered its first two trucks to customers in 2019, with production plans starting in late 2021, and they've also got a competitor in the local package delivery market. So with that, Daimler seems to be THE competitor to Tesla Semi.

Given all of that, and given Tesla is scheduled to release its production class 8 semi this year, they're ahead of all competitors, so look that'll be a whole new front for people to whine about!

Given this coming massive infrastructure shift (probably equal to the US highway system), smart people will be wondering how they're going to profit from it.
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      01-29-2020, 09:05 PM   #3085
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I can't wait to revisit this thread in 10 years so I can say, "Told ya so!"
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      01-29-2020, 09:49 PM   #3086
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Then Tesla should have approached the EV market much in the way LG has with GM.
The automotive manufacturer side has significant value upon sale, so as a horse to ride in on as an OEM provider... that part is looking good.
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      01-29-2020, 09:52 PM   #3087
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
i also feel that the younger generation are more idealistic ie wanting to use public transport uber to save the planet but have zero resilience. Once a blast of cold air hits their bottoms while waiting for a bus or uber a great proportion of them are likely to ditch any ideal and buy whatever car they can afford.
Public transport is way way way cheaper than BMW ownership.
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      01-30-2020, 12:14 AM   #3088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineX View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
i also feel that the younger generation are more idealistic ie wanting to use public transport uber to save the planet but have zero resilience. Once a blast of cold air hits their bottoms while waiting for a bus or uber a great proportion of them are likely to ditch any ideal and buy whatever car they can afford.
Public transport is way way way cheaper than BMW ownership.
It sounds like you are conflating. I don't see how or why BMW ownership is relevant based on the statement he made.
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      01-30-2020, 12:25 AM   #3089
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Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
It sounds like you are conflating. I don't see how or why BMW ownership is relevant based on the statement he made.
Nothing more than this being a BMW forum.
I haven't checked the resale demand for used Tesla's. Too young to know how mileage and years 4 through 12 will wear the Tcars overall vs other manufacturers (as viewed from a personal private and retail investment).
There are big swings out there on "comparable" models just check out a 2011ish 750 vs s550. Tesla does not have the same long term engineering integration as some of the legacy brands.

Last edited by AlpineX; 01-30-2020 at 12:38 AM..
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      01-30-2020, 12:35 AM   #3090
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Tesla has a great infrastructure and they will reap the benefits of that for years to come. They're also a software company that just happens to make cars. Microsoft is trying to do the same thing with hardware and they're doing a lot better now than when they first started.

I also believe Elon has something up his sleeves when it comes to battery energy density. He is boastful and he is the master of hype but he also has a cult following much like Apple.

The future is electric. It's just a matter of finding delivery and storage. Hydrogen fuel cell, energy dense batteries etc. Soon, level 3 chargers will be as prominent as gas stations. Remember that gasoline cars were novelties too back when there were no gas stations.

Tesla Model 3 is nothing to look at and it's an interior ergonomic nightmare. But it's quick and efficient and practically maintenance free.

Car makers have tried (and failed) with the center gauges, Mini, Saturn Ion Coupe and Tesla Model 3. If they added a heads up display or an additional driver's display, I would have already bought the thing.

I think Tesla will be around but it's not going to look anything like it is now. They have less than reputable customer service and myriad of build issues but once that's figured out, they're going to surprise the analysts once again.
See the market loved the last quarter results 12% gain on the opening price this morning, $US 2.3 billion gain on his shareholding. Look out the bears, bulls are having fun
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      01-30-2020, 12:36 AM   #3091
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
man... i hope hope no one shorted Tesla today lmao

Nah tightened the belt and went on with the ride...........
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      01-30-2020, 10:08 AM   #3092
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
new vegan gluten free restaurant opens on a street lined by burger king and McDonald's and sees sales jump from 0 to £1000 pounds per month.
Meanwhile sales at burger king and McDonald's are down 10% but still in the millions.
Oh no the whole world is going to eat vegan gluten free food and let's all invest in shares of this new restaurant.
HELLO most people like McDonald's and burger king and its cheap and tasty and will continue to exist and make profits.
Years down the line McDonald's and burger king introduce a gluten free and Vegan menu too and the vegan gluten free business goes into administration.
Haha who are the mugs now.
Run that scenario again but assume that a local ordinance abolished serving non-gluten free food at some point in the future.


Meanwhile Tesla shorts are having to cover that's driving up price.
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      01-30-2020, 02:53 PM   #3093
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capt Crunch View Post
Here's my hot take:

The utilization for cars, the second highest expenditure after a house, is in the single digits, which is ridiculously low. As car ownership becomes less of a thing (teenagers are happy to just take an uber), the utilization of cars will go significantly up through some flavor of rideshare. Imagine if cars has a 75% utilization rate.
Unfortunately, this isnt a hot take. Its a pretty common take on the future of the auto industry for urban areas. Rural will remain its own beast.
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      01-30-2020, 04:30 PM   #3094
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
new vegan gluten free restaurant opens on a street lined by burger king and McDonald's and sees sales jump from 0 to £1000 pounds per month.
Meanwhile sales at burger king and McDonald's are down 10% but still in the millions.
Oh no the whole world is going to eat vegan gluten free food and let's all invest in shares of this new restaurant.
HELLO most people like McDonald's and burger king and its cheap and tasty and will continue to exist and make profits.
Years down the line McDonald's and burger king introduce a gluten free and Vegan menu too and the vegan gluten free business goes into administration.
Haha who are the mugs now.
Run that scenario again but assume that a local ordinance abolished serving non-gluten free food at some point in the future.


Meanwhile Tesla shorts are having to cover that's driving up price.
absolutely right. virtue signalling legislation tax rebates and forced closure of ICE.
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      01-30-2020, 09:34 PM   #3095
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Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I can't wait to revisit this thread in 10 years so I can say, "Told ya so!"
If you have to wait 10 years to say you were right, then you were wrong.

That said, I always thought there was something spookily similar about you and Ralph Nader ...

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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 01-30-2020 at 09:45 PM..
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      01-30-2020, 11:03 PM   #3096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I can't wait to revisit this thread in 10 years so I can say, "Told ya so!"
If you have to wait 10 years to say you were right, then you were wrong.

That said, I always thought there was something spookily similar about you and Ralph Nader ...

No, it's just giving TESLA and the industry plenty of time to prove whether or not EV's have the potential its most fervent and fanatical followers claim.
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      01-31-2020, 03:53 AM   #3097
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So, is TSLA bankrupt yet?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/tesl...-earnings.html
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      01-31-2020, 07:04 AM   #3098
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Nassi also projected a not-real speed limit sign onto a tree; the fake sign was recognized by the driver assist tech, and so caused the car to speed up. In the test, a speed limit of 125 miles per hour was projected onto a billboard, too, for just 125 milliseconds — that was, apparently, enough time for the vehicle to recognize and react to it by speeding up.

The experiment shows these systems are not yet foolproof, and that even when driving a semi-“self-driving” car, you must keep full attention on the road at all times.
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      01-31-2020, 06:06 PM   #3099
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Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
No, it's just giving TESLA and the industry plenty of time to prove whether or not EV's have the potential its most fervent and fanatical followers claim.
A lot of people remember the first internet major browser, Netscape; but only a few people know that Netscape also made corporate enterprise software: merchant system for online sales, pub system for online content management, and SuiteSpot for email and messaging.

That's interesting because back in the 90s many corporate execs poo-pooed the internet as a toy for their kids, but nothing close to useful for the enterprise. A few companies were ahead of their time: Ford, FedEx, etc and they put in Netscape systems. Netscape didn't last as a company, instead they launched an industry by showing everyone how to create new tech to drive value.

BEV potential was proven 5 years ago as every Tesla Model S/X sale is a lost premium ICE sale... Like with Netscape, the question is, will Tesla be the company to reap the rewards of the broader infrastructure trend: ~$1T of investment.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      01-31-2020, 06:08 PM   #3100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
No, it's just giving TESLA and the industry plenty of time to prove whether or not EV's have the potential its most fervent and fanatical followers claim.
A lot of people remember the first internet major browser, Netscape; but only a few people know that Netscape also made corporate enterprise software: merchant system for online sales, pub system for online content management, and SuiteSpot for email and messaging.

That's interesting because back in the 90s many corporate execs poo-pooed the internet as a toy for their kids, but nothing close to useful for the enterprise. A few companies were ahead of their time: Ford, FedEx, etc and they put in Netscape systems. Netscape didn't last as a company, instead they launched an industry by showing everyone how to create new tech to drive value.

BEV potential was proven 5 years ago as every Tesla Model S/X sale is a lost premium ICE sale... Like with Netscape, the question is, will Tesla be the company to reap the rewards of the broader infrastructure trend: ~$1T of investment.
I know you like to present certain examples as analogous, but I don't find most of them to truly be. Your internet example is probably further off the mark than previous examples. The internet and related technologies were easier to facilitate because it didn't disrupt people's lives, present limitations or cause anxieties; it made things easier/more accessible. It was an entirely different tool to acclimatize, and people were generally accepting and welcoming toward the technology. I'm generalizing, but I'm certain that you understand where I'm coming from. I see forcing EV's in the same vein as de-weaponizing Americans; a relatively fruitless endeavor.
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      01-31-2020, 06:30 PM   #3101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I know you like to present certain examples as analogous, but I don't find most of them to truly be. Your internet example is probably further off the mark than previous examples. The internet and related technologies were easier to facilitate because it didn't disrupt people's lives, present limitations or cause anxieties; it made things easier/more accessible. It was an entirely different tool to acclimatize, and people were generally accepting and welcoming toward the technology. I'm generalizing, but I'm certain that you understand where I'm coming from. I see forcing EV's in the same vein as de-weaponizing Americans; a relatively fruitless endeavor.
He's seriously starting to remind me of "that guy" in high school.
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      01-31-2020, 07:03 PM   #3102
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We might not be in an agreement on Trump, but I'll be the first penis chaser here to say I'll rather take it up in the ass than to argue with you on this.
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