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      02-29-2020, 08:53 PM   #3345
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I'm pretty sure the sentiment was the same when horses were being phased out...
I'm pretty sure the sentiment was not the same when horses were being phased out. Where'd you get that idea?

Honestly, I'm all for the auto industry developing a better mousetrap. What I'm against government bureaucracies putting their thumbs on the scale of the free market to the point that they're mandating a complete overhaul of the auto industry.

The government didn't provide tax-payer funded financial incentives to push people to automobiles and regulate everyone from using horse and carriages. THAT is the difference.
They do it for agriculture.... are you against that too? Shit. I feel like I just posted this just a few days so. Yet the same arguments keep getting made.
We do that (and I support it) because the steady supply of food is kinda important. 💡
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      02-29-2020, 08:55 PM   #3346
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
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I'm pretty sure the sentiment was the same when horses were being phased out...
I'm pretty sure the sentiment was not the same when horses were being phased out. Where'd you get that idea?

Honestly, I'm all for the auto industry developing a better mousetrap. What I'm against government bureaucracies putting their thumbs on the scale of the free market to the point that they're mandating a complete overhaul of the auto industry.

The government didn't provide tax-payer funded financial incentives to push people to automobiles and regulate everyone from using horse and carriages. THAT is the difference.
They do it for agriculture.... are you against that too? Shit. I feel like I just posted this just a few days so. Yet the same arguments keep getting made.
We do that (and I support it) because the steady supply of food is kinda important. 💡
As is the automobile. What we use as fuel is analogous to what we eat for food.
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      03-01-2020, 07:57 AM   #3347
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As is the automobile. What we use as fuel is analogous to what we eat for food.
I think there is a difference, which is the EV tax rebate is targeted at the individual auto buyer, whereas industry subsidies for food, petroleum, pharma, etc. benefits all members of society regardless of socio-economic stature.

With the tax credit specifically, a buyer has to be in an upper income tax bracket to get the full amount of the refund. If subsides for petroleum lower the price of gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and plastics, the price reduction is equal among all income brackets.
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      03-01-2020, 08:16 AM   #3348
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As is the automobile. What we use as fuel is analogous to what we eat for food.
I think there is a difference, which is the EV tax rebate is targeted at the individual auto buyer, whereas industry subsidies for food, petroleum, pharma, etc. benefits all members of society regardless of socio-economic stature.

With the tax credit specifically, a buyer has to be in an upper income tax bracket to get the full amount of the refund. If subsides for petroleum lower the price of gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and plastics, the price reduction is equal among all income brackets.
Not always true. BMW for example passes the fed rebate down as a cap reduction for the consumer.
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      03-01-2020, 08:28 AM   #3349
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Not always true. BMW for example passes the fed rebate down as a cap reduction for the consumer.
Okay, kind of picking fly shit out of pepper... What I said was industry rebates are not targeted to individuals and EV tax rebates are directly targeted to those individuals who purchase an EV. If BMW Financial Services decides to use the rebate to lower the cap on a lease (on a car no one in the US really wants) it's not what was intended use of the rebate and still benefits directly the lessee of the vehicle. And lowering the cap on the lease is somewhat arbitrary because BMW can recapture the reduced cap on the turn-in. I'd bet 95% of the people who get into a lease for an automobile have no idea how a lease works, how it is priced, what can or can not be negotiated, and how they can get screwed on the back end of it. People do know a tax rebate when they see one.

You are arguing for the sake of making an argument.
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      03-01-2020, 12:05 PM   #3350
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Not always true. BMW for example passes the fed rebate down as a cap reduction for the consumer.
Okay, kind of picking fly shit out of pepper... What I said was industry rebates are not targeted to individuals and EV tax rebates are directly targeted to those individuals who purchase an EV. If BMW Financial Services decides to use the rebate to lower the cap on a lease (on a car no one in the US really wants) it's not what was intended use of the rebate and still benefits directly the lessee of the vehicle. And lowering the cap on the lease is somewhat arbitrary because BMW can recapture the reduced cap on the turn-in. I'd bet 95% of the people who get into a lease for an automobile have no idea how a lease works, how it is priced, what can or can not be negotiated, and how they can get screwed on the back end of it. People do know a tax rebate when they see one.

You are arguing for the sake of making an argument.
Why does it matter? Either way the cost decreases and makes the product more accessible. You don't think crop subsidies control prices? Come on, it honestly sounds like petty jealousy that and ICE doesn't get the subsidy by the EV does. Thats pretty much been echoed all over this thread by those who conveniently forget the oil is also subsidized. In the end, I still haven't read one convincing argument why subsidies in this case are bad. So what it it's targeting the individual? So... WHAT?
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      03-01-2020, 02:22 PM   #3351
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I think there is a difference, which is the EV tax rebate is targeted at the individual auto buyer, whereas industry subsidies for food, petroleum, pharma, etc. benefits all members of society regardless of socio-economic stature.
Uh, no. Who does ethanol benefit? Who does high fructose corn syrup benefit? We only have either of those things due to farm corn subsidies.

Who did Cash For Clunkers benefit? Specifically auto dealers.

Who does capital gains fiscal policy benefit? Specifically large dollar investors. For example, if you didn't know, for a married couple filing jointly, who doesn't work and lives on income from qualified dividends and long-term capital gains, they pay $0 in taxes on AT LEAST $80,000 in income. With a few tricks that number is infinite. You might know these people are the 1% - that's not exactly everyone, but I'm not great at math.

And then there's a term called "pork barrel" politics - what it means is various members of the Congressional appropriation committees add line to the federal budget known as pork barrel projects - these subsidies are specifically the OPPOSITE of "benefit all members of society" - they are structured to specifically benefit that member's district.

Popular examples include the Gravina Island Bridge ("Bridge to Nowhere"), pushed for by Republican Senator Ted Stevens, projected to cost $398 million, and just about anything former Hawaii Senator Daniel Inouye did.


Now, let's dig a little deeper on this farm fantasy!

(1.) The US subsidizes only 5 crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice. I don't know about you, but I don't eat much of any of those things, and one of them you can't eat.

(2.) Corn is the largest crop in the US - how much corn do you buy every week? Probably not a lot, so it's cheap, so we get lots of corn by-products like HFCS which causes hyperinsulinemia, which is the source of about 90% of disease and morbidity in the US (if you have type-2 diabetes, take a statin, etc that's you), so the P&L for corn factoring in health care costs is about negative a zillion, but that's just a rough estimate. not a societal benefit IMO.

(3.) 97% of the US's 2.1 million farms are family-owned operations, but ~70% of all commodity subsidies goes to large farms Read that as, PORK BARREL!

What would life be without charts!




So the bulk of farm subsidies benefit millionaires - not exactly everyone, more a 1% thing again - to grown things most people don't eat, and nobody needs to eat.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-01-2020, 04:14 PM   #3352
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Hey, in why-the-fuck-are-we-going-BEV? news, 'member when I mentioned that thing about China going BEV because air pollution fucks with their economy?

Well, here's what Chinese air pollution looks like with and without ICE traffic:



Although, I'm still 50/50 at this point on TSLA surviving #COVID-19 ...
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      03-02-2020, 03:22 PM   #3353
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      03-02-2020, 03:58 PM   #3354
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[ spaceX prototype test ]
Boeing: "Wait - you're supposed to do end-to-end testing on this space stuff???"

Given this prototype was only designed for the initial testing rounds, it'll be super-cool to watch the future Starship prototypes, especially when they begin orbital flights!
Pretty awesome to see the US get a decent space program going again!

More relevant to Tesla is Starlink
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-05-2020, 07:28 PM   #3355
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I ordered a Cybertruck tri motor yesterday. Yes, I know what it looks like!
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      03-05-2020, 08:02 PM   #3356
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It has begun:
Ji Hoon Heo, a 28-year-old Korea-born entrepreneur who moved to Chattanooga last year, is capitalizing on the Tesla boom.

His TeslaBros company, which is housed in a 3,000-square-foot warehouse on Amnicola Highway, makes accessories for Tesla automobiles things like button labels for the cabin and chrome "black-out" kits for Tesla exteriors.

TeslaBros.com succeeded from day one, Heo says, largely by making products in house instead of outsourcing, which made for a lot of late nights cutting out patterns.

"Our first two days when we launched we had 300 orders," said Heo, who goes by Ji (pronounced "g"). "We made $10,000 in our first 30 days."

In its first 11 months, the company generated $200,000 in sales and made a profit, Heo said.
Just wait until people realize that with a roof, powerwall, and cybertruck they can be energy self-sufficient - that will overwhelm the culture/emotion wars and generate an economic explosion, and people in early like this guy are going to be huge.
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      03-06-2020, 06:04 AM   #3357
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peak tesla has occurred with demand saturation. since they attacked ice many ice manufacturers are now coming out with ev's which will be lapped up by joe public. get out of tesla while you can only way from here is down baby.
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      03-12-2020, 04:34 PM   #3358
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peak tesla has occurred with demand saturation. since they attacked ice many ice manufacturers are now coming out with ev's which will be lapped up by joe public. get out of tesla while you can only way from here is down baby.
I gotta say, I'm really surprised at how well Tesla has held up:
Tesla Inc. delivered almost one-third of all electric vehicles in China last month, an industry group said, signaling the Model 3 maker has been relatively unscathed by the coronavirus outbreak that’s paralyzed much of the country.

The company delivered 3,958 units in February -- or about 30% of all new-energy vehicles in the country -- said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, in an online briefing on Monday about the country’s overall industry figures. That’s a “pretty good performance,” he said.
That must explain why, compared to Ford and GM, TSLA is proving really durable:



It'll be interesting to see what happens with Chinese green policies as COVID19 progresses ...

Also, just in case there's anyone who still thinks the USA is full of laissez-faire capitalism purity:
  • The Fed announced a bold new initiative in an effort to calm market tumult amid the coronavirus meltdown.
  • In all, the new moves pump in up to $1.5 trillion into the financial system in an effort to combat potential freezes brought on by the coronavirus.
  • This was the second day in a row and the third time this week the Fed has stepped in.
When daddy has to step in to save you, it's not capitalism purity.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

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      03-15-2020, 05:27 PM   #3359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
peak tesla has occurred with demand saturation. since they attacked ice many ice manufacturers are now coming out with ev's which will be lapped up by joe public. get out of tesla while you can only way from here is down baby.
I gotta say, I'm really surprised at how well Tesla has held up:
Tesla Inc. delivered almost one-third of all electric vehicles in China last month, an industry group said, signaling the Model 3 maker has been relatively unscathed by the coronavirus outbreak that's paralyzed much of the country.

The company delivered 3,958 units in February -- or about 30% of all new-energy vehicles in the country -- said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, in an online briefing on Monday about the country's overall industry figures. That's a "pretty good performance," he said.
That must explain why, compared to Ford and GM, TSLA is proving really durable:

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Chinese green policies as COVID19 progresses ...

Also, just in case there's anyone who still thinks the USA is full of laissez-faire capitalism purity:
  • The Fed announced a bold new initiative in an effort to calm market tumult amid the coronavirus meltdown.
  • In all, the new moves pump in up to $1.5 trillion into the financial system in an effort to combat potential freezes brought on by the coronavirus.
  • This was the second day in a row and the third time this week the Fed has stepped in.
When daddy has to step in to save you, it's not capitalism purity.
bro economy is going down the pan. unlike electic con coronavirus scare is a real threat NOW to peoples lives. I do hope Tesla and investors have enough capital to ride the next few months of uncharted terrain.
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      03-16-2020, 11:29 AM   #3360
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Oil prices suppressed so low that there is no incentive for most people to buy an electric car let alone a Tesla. On top of that I don't think too many people are going to run out and buy a Tesla in the middle of a pandemic/economic crisis either.
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      03-16-2020, 11:42 AM   #3361
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
[ spaceX prototype test ]
Boeing: "Wait - you're supposed to do end-to-end testing on this space stuff???"

Given this prototype was only designed for the initial testing rounds, it'll be super-cool to watch the future Starship prototypes, especially when they begin orbital flights!
Pretty awesome to see the US get a decent space program going again!

More relevant to Tesla is [COLOR="Blue"]Starlink[/COLOR]
Pleasure trips to space doesn't sound the least bit "green" to me. How many ICE need to be regulated out of the marketplace to equal once space vacation?
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      03-16-2020, 12:37 PM   #3362
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Pleasure trips to space doesn't sound the least bit "green" to me. How many ICE need to be regulated out of the marketplace to equal once space vacation?
this ain't a culture whiner thread, the topic is about Tesla's prospects as a company, there are plenty of other threads to whine about cultural topics.

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Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
Oil prices suppressed so low that there is no incentive for most people to buy an electric car let alone a Tesla. On top of that I don't think too many people are going to run out and buy a Tesla in the middle of a pandemic/economic crisis either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
bro economy is going down the pan. unlike electic con coronavirus scare is a real threat NOW to peoples lives. I do hope Tesla and investors have enough capital to ride the next few months of uncharted terrain.
Yeah, thus my surprise at how well Tesla share price has held up - back in Jan I was thinking immediately crash and $100-$200/share (and posted that).

As for oil prices, BEV sales have never correlated to oil prices so probably not a factor.

As for buying cars during a pandemic, well that's why I'm so surprised that Chinese Tesla sales have not only held up, but outperformed. If that's the case this month as well, Tesla will likely easily be able to ride out this year with existing orders.

Further, I think Tesla is holding up well because it's one of the best ways to invest in the self-sufficient/social distancing economy: with solar and batteries, your house and transportation can be complete self-sufficient - you can even run a small greenhouse for food and not need anything external. There's some chatter that Tesla could be a huge beneficiary from work-from-home.

As for the economy, it's for sure a global recession. Q1/Q2 are for sure gone, and I'd also say Q3 at least. Further, the market has a major undefined dysfunction in the repo market (which started last september), and has need $1.5T to fix ... and even beyond that, there's another dysfunction last week with stock & bonds matching each other (they're supposed to move separately), gold going down (not up), bitcoin plummeting, US treasuries going up, et al. Something majorly wrong in markets which creates the danger of a feedback loop (we already have supply and demand shocks) wherein the market dysfunction starts pushing down an already wounded economy, driving it down further, which enhances the dysfunction, and so on.

With that said, we're not in 2008 in terms of systemic risk (at least not yet), and the market is reacting to a medical problem - one that China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong all have under control, so there's hope the US can too. The problem here is, until we have wide scale covid testing there's no understanding the size of the problem and the market is assuming the worst.

Right now the US has to get through the next 3-10 weeks in Nor Cal, Seattle, New York, New Jersey, and Boston. If there's not an Italian-style bomb, I think markets will settle ... but, that's a big if ...

Put it all together, as of now I'd say Tesla's Chinese and European sales look fairly secure (but we'll see in 30 days), with some risk in the US growing if we can't get coordinated covid testing and treatment (which looks 50/50 right now at most).

If a TSLA share gets a 1, or maybe even a 2 in front of it, I might get in.
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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      03-16-2020, 12:57 PM   #3363
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Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
Pleasure trips to space doesn't sound the least bit "green" to me. How many ICE need to be regulated out of the marketplace to equal once space vacation?
this ain't a culture whiner thread, the topic is about Tesla's prospects as a company, there are plenty of other threads to whine about cultural topics.
Surely you know that was a rhetorical question. I didn't expect to hear a formula. I know this thread serves as a venue for whining about the wisdom of other aspects of Tesla's business decisions.
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      03-16-2020, 04:16 PM   #3364
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
Pleasure trips to space doesn't sound the least bit "green" to me. How many ICE need to be regulated out of the marketplace to equal once space vacation?
this ain't a culture whiner thread, the topic is about Tesla's prospects as a company, there are plenty of other threads to whine about cultural topics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
Oil prices suppressed so low that there is no incentive for most people to buy an electric car let alone a Tesla. On top of that I don't think too many people are going to run out and buy a Tesla in the middle of a pandemic/economic crisis either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
bro economy is going down the pan. unlike electic con coronavirus scare is a real threat NOW to peoples lives. I do hope Tesla and investors have enough capital to ride the next few months of uncharted terrain.
Yeah, thus my surprise at how well Tesla share price has held up - back in Jan I was thinking immediately crash and $100-$200/share (and posted that).

As for oil prices, BEV sales have never correlated to oil prices so probably not a factor.

As for buying cars during a pandemic, well that's why I'm so surprised that Chinese Tesla sales have not only held up, but outperformed. If that's the case this month as well, Tesla will likely easily be able to ride out this year with existing orders.

Further, I think Tesla is holding up well because it's one of the best ways to invest in the self-sufficient/social distancing economy: with solar and batteries, your house and transportation can be complete self-sufficient - you can even run a small greenhouse for food and not need anything external. There's some chatter that Tesla could be a huge beneficiary from work-from-home.

As for the economy, it's for sure a global recession. Q1/Q2 are for sure gone, and I'd also say Q3 at least. Further, the market has a major undefined dysfunction in the repo market (which started last september), and has need $1.5T to fix ... and even beyond that, there's another dysfunction last week with stock & bonds matching each other (they're supposed to move separately), gold going down (not up), bitcoin plummeting, US treasuries going up, et al. Something majorly wrong in markets which creates the danger of a feedback loop (we already have supply and demand shocks) wherein the market dysfunction starts pushing down an already wounded economy, driving it down further, which enhances the dysfunction, and so on.

With that said, we're not in 2008 in terms of systemic risk (at least not yet), and the market is reacting to a medical problem - one that China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong all have under control, so there's hope the US can too. The problem here is, until we have wide scale covid testing there's no understanding the size of the problem and the market is assuming the worst.

Right now the US has to get through the next 3-10 weeks in Nor Cal, Seattle, New York, New Jersey, and Boston. If there's not an Italian-style bomb, I think markets will settle ... but, that's a big if ...

Put it all together, as of now I'd say Tesla's Chinese and European sales look fairly secure (but we'll see in 30 days), with some risk in the US growing if we can't get coordinated covid testing and treatment (which looks 50/50 right now at most).

If a TSLA share gets a 1, or maybe even a 2 in front of it, I might get in.

you are defending the indefensible mate. tesla is a leftist wet dream luxury based on subsidies cheap electricity and will get crucified on the altar of a recession. May get a bailout.
do you think that the airlines are going to now invest in electric planes.
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      03-16-2020, 07:18 PM   #3365
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you are defending the indefensible mate
That's the fun of following the data where it leads you! You don't have to defend anything because you just follow the data and do what it tells you. The data isn't pro or con, it just is.

And what the TSLA data says right now is, unless there are major structural changes, and there's no indication whatsoever there's going to be, TSLA will continue it's trend stronger after covid, than prior - and that's specifically derivative of coronavirus sales data coming out of China and Europe.

That said, there's no doubt TSLA, like Ford and GM, will take a deliveries hit but right now that's looking to be <20% - RBC Capital, for example, is carrying a sell rating and forecasting 364k deliveries vs 368k last year (against a projection of 500k in a no-virus scenario). So basically the investor pessimists are saying a once-in-a-lifetime shock will barely impact TSLA deliveries y/y. Again, that's what the pessimists are saying.

So the data's telling me if TSLA falls below $300 it's a great buy - i'm not an individual stock investor, but given these opportunities I will probably be breaking that rule.
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      03-16-2020, 09:14 PM   #3366
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I imagine Tesla factory is shutting down like everyone else in NorCal.
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