[thesubmitter]

I checked briefly the i8 used market and the prices seemed fairly high. My 2019 24 mo lease (ends March 2022) has a residual for 86k CAD (68kUSD). Feels like i will end up ahead. I got 42k CAD in discounts at the start.

Are the i8 prices holding up because of the “specialness” of the car or is it just pandemic or seasonal pricing or am I just imagining things.

[F5506m]

That is a really low residual. My 2019 24 month lease has a residual of $95k.

[thesubmitter]

I paid 25k down
565/mo tax in
CAD

Maybe I overpaid on the front end? I did get a 42k discount so I can't complain

[F5506m]

Originally Posted by thesubmitter

I paid 25k down
565/mo tax in
CAD

Maybe I overpaid on the front end? I did get a 42k discount so I can't complain

That still does not makes sense in the US the residuals are fixed by BMWFS. If you make a big Down Payment it goes against your monthly payment, but not to reduce your residual unless you have a balloon financing and not a lease.

But if you truly have a lease with such a low residual, you need to buy the car and sell it yourself to recover some of your down payment as your car is worth more than the residual.

[thesubmitter]

its a regular lease.... we will see how the prices are post pandemic.

However, I think this car is a keeper considering the amount of attention the car gets especially from younger generations I think this car will actually keep its value (post-initial depreciation). Like this car will settle at 60k usd.

Just running the numbers now. If I were to actually sell this 2019 with 3k miles at 100k net. I would have paid 565/net for the car over 12 months. That's crazy.

[Obioban]

I think they may have bumped back up. I test drove a CPO that was $38,000 last year. I don't see any in the country (on BMW's site) that are in the 30s or 40s anymore.

[BigT]

It looks very stable: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/BMW-i8-d2274
Same here in Europe. Only high mileage cars sometimes under 60k$.

[mws]

Originally Posted by r6_philly

It's been hard to find one and prices are higher than what I expected. I had to get one shipped from Cali.

You are down the street BTW

That's funny, I am "in" Cali; Silicon Valley, to be exact, and I had to get one from Florida, to get the year range and miles I wanted. You would expect Silicon Valley and L.A. to be swimming in them, used, because they were swimming in them when new, but the used ones tend to go to auction and get sold in outlying areas, if not completely different states. After all, if your neighborhood can afford a new one, who wants a used (and still relatively expensive) range-topping vehicle from BMW? (other brands I am not so sure of, but we had a ton of Jag F types when they first came out, and there's not a ton of used ones around, either)

[mws]

if you folks are not familiar with this YouTube Channel, it bears scrutinizing.

old analysis from 1 year ago:

and his follow up from 5 months ago, during the middle of the pandemic, when I too, noticed used car prices for pretty much everything, starting to go back up. The older i8s are stabilizing and in some cases, going up in price. The newer ones will continue their slide towards the older one's prices.

He does not give his opinion as to "why", but his analysis seems solid. He does not mention the i8 successor being cancelled, or Robin Hood investors making out like bandits for the first time in their lives, or people in a pandemic coming face to face with their mortality and fast-tracking the bucket-list to include accessbile dream cars. Those are my opinions.

One other comment I can make, since I was just shopping for a used, older-year i8 for the last 6 months. The asking prices are indeed going up. While you can talk to dealers and they might fill your head with B.S. and hype, I had access to Manheim auctions and could see the asking prices go up from 5 months ago. The independent dealers that get few trade-ins and thrive on auctions were decrying (alligator tears, but still) the fact they had to pay more and more for them at auction lately. That is why I like trade-ins at major dealers. They probably fleece the person trading in the i8, it is in great condition, or they would get rid of it, and they sell it for many thousands more than they got it, and still can give you a decent deal.

I paid $73,999 for a 2014 trade-in at a Ft. Lauderdale BMW dealer, with 1100 miles on it. Now, I am seeing that exact same asking price for 2014s or 2015s popping up on CarGurus for 27k mile cars (probably an auction car). Not that they will get that price, but the ones that are priced right, are selling quickly, because of the i8 fever. I am willing to bet that once the vaccines are distributed and the economy continues to not take a dump, the pandemic mortality-fear factor will wane and the older i8s will then start to slide down again, slowly. There is low inventory and at some point the price will probably bottom, and not go down any further. I think it will happen when they get to around 1/4 of the original price.

I experienced that bottoming way back when, looking at the old 8-series. They bottomed out at $20k and--decades later-- never went much below that. They are not collectors cars, but the enthusiasts love their old 8-series. its not like a early 2000s 760li (formerly the range-topping BMW) that just continues to slide down in price, well below $10k. (I have owned two)

[chris_1M]

Nice write up mws.
My crystal ball actually tells me prices will only go down to 1/4 of the original sticker price if major issues with accu-packs catching fire or breaking down start hitting the news frequently ... if not, up is the way to go as these cars are very unique and extremely affordable to own! -for those who did not buy new-

[ericsi]

Originally Posted by chris_1M

Nice write up mws.
My crystal ball actually tells me prices will only go down to 1/4 of the original sticker price if major issues with accu-packs catching fire or breaking down start hitting the news frequently ... if not, up is the way to go as these cars are very unique and extremely affordable to own! -for those who did not buy new-

I think overtime these cars will benefit from evolved battery packs from third party companies.

[mws]

Originally Posted by ericsi

I think overtime these cars will benefit from evolved battery packs from third party companies.

agree, and we will be largely responsible for encouraging them to investigate and hopefully invest in a cure.

[thesubmitter]

I was looking over my lease agreement that purchase price of the car
was 156k CAD - discounts = 112k CAD for a 2019 coupe w/premium package in optional white.

I am seeing dealers selling the same car for 110kusd right now used on cars.com. Kind of unreal. I guess.

My lease residual was set at 55% so 86k CAD.

[ChiTownM]

The other question I have is where to sell these cars to attract the right people. I am an early adapter with a 2014 i8 at 11,000 miles in pristine condition and debating if now is the time to sell? Trade with dealer is not an option .....

[nestorps23]

Originally Posted by Obioban

I think they may have bumped back up. I test drove a CPO that was $38,000 last year. I don't see any in the country (on BMW's site) that are in the 30s or 40s anymore.

What? 38k? Where! that is crazy!

[F5506m]

I am really on the fence, whether to buyout my lease at the residual $96k. There is nothing out there that catches my interest, especially from BMW. I can see myself owning this car for a long time as my daily driver to work, especially with the increased electric range of the 2019's. I have been doing 67.4 mpg overall my two (2) year lease.

[thesubmitter]

Originally Posted by F5506m

I am really on the fence, whether to buyout my lease at the residual $96k. There is nothing out there that catches my interest, especially from BMW. I can see myself owning this car for a long time as my daily driver to work, especially with the increased electric range of the 2019's. I have been doing 67.4 mpg overall my two (2) year lease.

When does your lease end? I'm suspicious that the prices will dip post covid shortages. I've heard there are ways to get BMW to extend your lease, not sure of details.

[Obioban]

Originally Posted by nestorps23

What? 38k? Where! that is crazy!

That was at Devon Hill BMW in SE PA.

[F5506m]

Originally Posted by thesubmitter

When does your lease end? I'm suspicious that the prices will dip post covid shortages. I've heard there are ways to get BMW to extend your lease, not sure of details.

Lease ends in May...I might extend the lease.