The Chinese political thread

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by Ivan Ivanov

It would seem - at what the United States here?

Here is a diagram of our world

Where is China located and where is the USA located?

So it's ok for China to claim the areas right off other countries coasts, hundreds and thousands of kilometers from China?
But I like how one supporter of a totalitarian state stands up for another totalitarian state.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by Ivan Ivanov

It would seem - at what the United States here?

Here is a diagram of our world

Where is China located and where is the USA located?

And your map is inaccurate as to where the Parcells are located . I would go GPS over GLONASS if I were you.........

[Z K]

Originally Posted by Law

It really comes down to how one defines "win" or "victory".

If winning means the decimation of Taiwan as we know it, then I have no doubt in my mind that the PLA can achieve that.

However, logic dictates that a military & political "win" for Beijing would mean being able to invade Taiwan for the purposes of incorporating Taiwan into the PRC.
To that end, victory is a lot more difficult.
A full-scale combat at the current stage would still leave P.R. China with a broken nose and some knocked out teeth.

If victory means that Beijing and the PLA expects to march into Taipei and capture the Presidential Building after eliminating a few divisions of resistance and with little-to-no collateral damage (i.e., civilians, infrastructure, shared historical heritage such as the relics of the Palace Museum), then they are in for a tough one.

The article does mention that the Taiwanese can slow down and demoralize the attacking forces making it very painful for the Chinese army. Most of the men in Taiwan have some military training because of mandatory draft. Those can be called in as armed reservists. That and the Chinese will lack any element of surprise because any build up that large would not be able to be hidden.

One problem the article does mention is that the Taiwanese military is rather demoralized because of the knowledge they are facing a superior force.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by Z K

The article does mention that the Taiwanese can slow down and demoralize the attacking forces making it very painful for the Chinese army. Most of the men in Taiwan have some military training because of mandatory draft. Those can be called in as armed reservists. That and the Chinese will lack any element of surprise because any build up that large would not be able to be hidden.

One problem the article does mention is that the Taiwanese military is rather demoralized because of the knowledge they are facing a superior force.

Most of the Chinese troops will be country bumpkin conscripts, I think. Any reversals for the communists would result in their immediate demoralization and rout, I believe (The "bumpkins" were used in Tiananmen square, to make sure they were well indoctrinated and would have no problem killing the students).

[Law]

Originally Posted by Z K

The article does mention that the Taiwanese can slow down and demoralize the attacking forces making it very painful for the Chinese army. Most of the men in Taiwan have some military training because of mandatory draft. Those can be called in as armed reservists. That and the Chinese will lack any element of surprise because any build up that large would not be able to be hidden.

One problem the article does mention is that the Taiwanese military is rather demoralized because of the knowledge they are facing a superior force.

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

Most of the Chinese troops will be country bumpkin conscripts, I think. Any reversals for the communists would result in their immediate demoralization and rout, I believe (The "bumpkins" were used in Tiananmen square, to make sure they were well indoctrinated and would have no problem killing the students).

It's worth noting a major demoralizing factor for the PLA would be the fact that they genuinely believe that killing a Taiwanese [soldier], for example, is akin to killing family, to killing a brother.
They very much still see this situation and any future conflict with Taiwan as part of a bigger Chinese Civil War.

The ROC Armed Forces were very formidable in the past, but the gap is closing in recent years.
While Taiwan does maintain active mandatory conscription, official policy has been that the severity/intensity of training and the duration of said training is being increasingly cut-back/toned-down, a trend that has followed hand-in-hand with the democratization and liberalization of Taiwan society after the end of martial law.

It's become somewhat of a human rights/humanitarian issue where Taiwanese parents have filed complaints and suits against the government for what they perceive as maltreatment of their adolescent children.
The government has responded over the years by moving in a direction where conscription is less intense, and where it was a 2-year mandatory service, it has been gradually reduced for the newer generation (depending on year of birth).
They have even rolled out a program called "Alternative Service" (Chinese: 替代役) which allows conscripts to opt for community/public/volunteer service instead of military training.
In other words, you can now complete your "mandatory conscription" in Taiwan without ever firing a weapon.

To this regard, Taiwan's military discipline and culture, as well as the morale to fight has increasingly waned in recent years, especially since most people are comfortable with a certain quality of life.

Contrast with mainland China, where due to sheer scale of population, they have enough "bumpkins" Real Dodger is talking about that makes it quite an easier task for indoctrination and discipline.

Just food for thought.
It's always interesting to hypothesize this scenario, although I hope it never happens.

Good discussion gentlemen.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

And your map is inaccurate as to where the Parcells are located . I would go GPS over GLONASS if I were you.........

Not to mention the Soviets being involved in places that according to a map they shouldn't be? About the lamest comeback I've ever seen in the poly/sci thread. Apparently all nations should stick to their own geographical area. If so China, Russia the US and host of other nations have to rent a bunch of U-Hauls.

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

Most of the Chinese troops will be country bumpkin conscripts, I think. Any reversals for the communists would result in their immediate demoralization and rout, I believe (The "bumpkins" were used in Tiananmen square, to make sure they were well indoctrinated and would have no problem killing the students).

I don't know if I would necessarily say this, but I would say definitely inexperienced. The Chinese obviously haven't fought a major war since Korea and that was right on their land border. Mounting an operation like this isn't something you do out of the blue and it will definitely have it's own problems operationally. Nevermind what the Taiwanese are/will do if that makes sense.

[minn19]

Originally Posted by Z K

I think this is one of the only articles that doesn't say China will win outright in an invasion of Taiwan.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25...ar-with-china/

Very interesting read, thanks for the link.

[Captain Blood]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...YqS?ocid=ientp
Three US officials confirm that images obtained by @gCaptain are US Navy images of the "unsafe & unprofessional" encounter between the USS Decatur and a Chinese destroyer that took place Sunday while the US warship was sailing near Gaven Reef in the South China Sea

Pictures of the encounter are in the article.

That's too close! I wish our ship had simply dropped anchor by the reef.

[zx10guy]

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...YqS?ocid=ientp
Three US officials confirm that images obtained by @gCaptain are US Navy images of the "unsafe & unprofessional" encounter between the USS Decatur and a Chinese destroyer that took place Sunday while the US warship was sailing near Gaven Reef in the South China Sea

Pictures of the encounter are in the article.

That's too close! I wish our ship had simply dropped anchor by the reef.

Reminds me of the US EP-3 and Chinese J-8 incident over Hainan.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

Reminds me of the US EP-3 and Chinese J-8 incident over Hainan.

I wish we could get an Iowa class battleship to drop anchor off the reef, with it proudly displaying the US flag with a "Come and take it" flag underneath.

[zx10guy]

I wish I could locate a picture that some coworkers were circulating when the Hainan Incident was current news. It had a bunch of Tomahawk cruise missiles with the wording "We're sorry" on it.

I'm glad we're no longer pussy footing around with the Chinese government

[Captain Blood]

Too bad these bad boys are out of service........

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

I wish I could locate a picture that some coworkers were circulating when the Hainan Incident was current news. It had a bunch of Tomahawk cruise missiles with the wording "We're sorry" on it.

I'm glad we're no longer pussy footing around with the Chinese government

I don't think the policy has actually changed. We have been doing these patrols since the Chinese claimed the "nine dash" line.

[Z K]

Originally Posted by Law

It's worth noting a major demoralizing factor for the PLA would be the fact that they genuinely believe that killing a Taiwanese [soldier], for example, is akin to killing family, to killing a brother.
They very much still see this situation and any future conflict with Taiwan as part of a bigger Chinese Civil War.

The ROC Armed Forces were very formidable in the past, but the gap is closing in recent years.
While Taiwan does maintain active mandatory conscription, official policy has been that the severity/intensity of training and the duration of said training is being increasingly cut-back/toned-down, a trend that has followed hand-in-hand with the democratization and liberalization of Taiwan society after the end of martial law.

It's become somewhat of a human rights/humanitarian issue where Taiwanese parents have filed complaints and suits against the government for what they perceive as maltreatment of their adolescent children.
The government has responded over the years by moving in a direction where conscription is less intense, and where it was a 2-year mandatory service, it has been gradually reduced for the newer generation (depending on year of birth).
They have even rolled out a program called "Alternative Service" (Chinese: 替代役) which allows conscripts to opt for community/public/volunteer service instead of military training.
In other words, you can now complete your "mandatory conscription" in Taiwan without ever firing a weapon.

To this regard, Taiwan's military discipline and culture, as well as the morale to fight has increasingly waned in recent years, especially since most people are comfortable with a certain quality of life.

Contrast with mainland China, where due to sheer scale of population, they have enough "bumpkins" Real Dodger is talking about that makes it quite an easier task for indoctrination and discipline.

Just food for thought.
It's always interesting to hypothesize this scenario, although I hope it never happens.

Good discussion gentlemen.

I agree for PLA, it would be like "killing your brothers" as said. But with the Chinese nationalist propaganda and the increasing polarization within China itself - it is just a matter of time before they don't see it that way. Just look at the outcry in China over anyone who displays a ROC flag or even mentions Taiwan in public.

And the PLA "bumpkins" who are indoctrinated won't have any knowledge of the real situation nor care. They'll follow orders without thinking. They'll think it'd be glorious to fight for their righteous cause.

[Captain Blood]

The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies - Bloomberg Businessweek
https://apple.news/AhWZXvYw3Qseory8hYDT3Xw

Shocking!!!!!
I can't believe Apple didn't share.

[Captain Blood]

Interpol president Meng Hongwei vanishes during trip to China, official says - Fox News
https://apple.news/ACiZ2xOKtTmSKeiEK-fOYmQ

They seem to make a lot of people disappear lately....

[Captain Blood]

Meng Hongwei: China confirms detention of Interpol chief http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45777681

[glennQNYC]

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

I wish we could get an Iowa class battleship to drop anchor off the reef, with it proudly displaying the US flag with a "Come and take it" flag underneath.

First, please read this as a post of agreement. I think we're actually on the same page here.

Can you imagine the reaction the anti-Trump people would express if he commanded this type of direct provocation? President Trump would be called a dangerous warmonger that is looking to enter into a war with China to deflect attention from [enter reason here].

I believe we're doing the right thing in regards to protecting freedom of navigation and challenging China's claim of nearly all of the South China Sea. We are not acknowledging China's claims on the South China Sea, and we're continuing on sending war ships through the contested area. We've been practicing bombing runs for over a year now.

Let China be the provocateur. Meanwhile we take economic steps (tariffs, sanctions) to weaken their economy; while we continue to build ours up. Strengthen traditional, cyber, and space warfare capabilities. China wouldn't dare challenge the US militarily right now... We just have to keep it that way.

[Law]

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

Interpol president Meng Hongwei vanishes during trip to China, official says - Fox News
https://apple.news/ACiZ2xOKtTmSKeiEK-fOYmQ

They seem to make a lot of people disappear lately....

Meng Hongwei: China confirms detention of Interpol chief
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-45777681

Beijing said he was under investigation by the country's anti-corruption body for unspecified breaches of the law.

"Anti-corruption" is typically used by authoritarian regimes as a tool to purge political opponents or dissidents and Beijing is no exception.

It'll be interesting to see further developments and I wonder what the full story with this guy is.

[Captain Blood]

Interpol Chief Was China’s Pride. His Fall Exposes the Country’s Dark Side.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...tjA?ocid=ientp

One question I had, and it may also may have been asked in the posted article:
WTF is a chinese national doing being the head of INTERPOL?!?

[Law]

Originally Posted by Real Dodger

Interpol Chief Was China’s Pride. His Fall Exposes the Country’s Dark Side.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...tjA?ocid=ientp

One question I had, and it may also may have been asked in the posted article:
WTF is a chinese national doing being the head of INTERPOL?!?

Everything about this development is just shady.

He is "disappeared" by the government, without a peep except for a knife emoji (implying danger) sent via text message to his wife right before.
Then, after much French pressure, Beijing finally confirms it has Meng in custody and that he is being under investigation for "corruption".
Shortly after, a resignation letter supposedly endorsed by Meng is released.

So what was he doing as head of Interpol?
Well, details are scarce.
This is the thing about big-brother regimes, there is absolutely no transparency about any proceedings nor are personal details & records of civil servants (if you can even call them "servants") made public, except for the 'facts' they want you to hear.
Everything is shrouded in a cloud of mystery and even confirmed facts can be/could've been manipulated due to centralized control of media so nobody would even know or be able to call into question the validity of facts published.

But let's start with what we know.
Meng has around four decades experience in law enforcement.
He was previously the Director of the China Coast Guard until 2017.

Now, the most relevant piece of information we know is that Meng was previously the PRC's Deputy Public Security Minister (in layman's terms: VP of National Police) from 2004.

Somewhere along the line he began climbing up the ladder in Interpol, culminating in his being elected President of the organization on 10 November 2016.

The above are the only concrete details about his career and life/history.
Note also that many of the dates overlap, as it is common in highly centralized/authoritarian governments for officials to hold multiple posts simultaneously.


So what are the possible motives for Meng's ascension to President of Interpol?
Here's where we have to speculate a little.
Given the scarce details that we have about the inner workings of China's Public Security Ministry and the people that preside over it, we can only guess that Beijing would've had a strong motivating factor to have one of their own men from the Ministry to go on to global position equipped with the tools and jurisdiction that transcends China's boundaries.
In a nutshell, this means that dissidents, for example, that Beijing couldn't touch previously, would now be potentially vulnerable.
That's a reasonable hypothesis.
I have my doubts that Beijing intended to have one of their own people head Interpol for the purposes of combating things like human trafficking or intellectual property crime.
There is almost certainly a political motive.

Which begs the question, why would Beijing compromise this position?
The answer to this is pure speculation at this point, but one has to wonder, that given the above motives, why Beijing would take down their own guy.
One possible hypothesis is that Meng, after ascending to the Presidency of Interpol, either refused to do Beijing's bidding, or has some dirt in his personal life or history that makes him vulnerable, and hence, makes the Communist Party vulnerable, or even, that he has dirt on the Communist Party.
Regardless of the details/blanks we have to fill in ourselves, it's safe to assume that somewhere along the line Mr. Meng not only ceased to become a useful asset for Beijing but also that his continued role as Interpol President also ceased to be desirable for Beijing, and hence, his forced "disappearance" and resignation (under duress) with immediate effect.

TL;DR - We can only speculate due to lack of transparency but there was quite possibly a political motive for Beijing to have Meng in the role of Interpol President. Now, for whatever reason, Beijing finds that role has ceased to become useful, and even risky to the regime's security.
Hence, the need to silence him.

[Captain Blood]

Originally Posted by Law

Everything about this development is just shady.



Which begs the question, why would Beijing compromise this position?
The answer to this is pure speculation at this point, but one has to wonder, that given the above motives, why Beijing would take down their own guy.
One possible hypothesis is that Meng, after ascending to the Presidency of Interpol, either refused to do Beijing's bidding, or has some dirt in his personal life or history that makes him vulnerable, and hence, makes the Communist Party vulnerable, or even, that he has dirt on the Communist Party.
Regardless of the details/blanks we have to fill in ourselves, it's safe to assume that somewhere along the line Mr. Meng not only ceased to become a useful asset for Beijing but also that his continued role as Interpol President also ceased to be desirable for Beijing, and hence, his forced "disappearance" and resignation (under duress) with immediate effect.

TL;DR - We can only speculate due to lack of transparency but there was quite possibly a political motive for Beijing to have Meng in the role of Interpol President. Now, for whatever reason, Beijing finds that role has ceased to become useful, and even risky to the regime's security.
Hence, the need to silence him.

Reminds me of Stalin's Red Terror. If I were posted abroad, I don't think I would go back if recalled.