Stock market Thread II--Technical Analysis

[mact3333]

This thread is meant for stock mkt trading based on technicals and other rational theories....not meant for blindly making recommendations based on air...we will all be right and wrong, but here lets at least have a reason why we think the way we do.

I posted this chart 1-2 wks ago and this was one of the reasons a long position was reasonable at the time.

the % of SPX stocks trading below the 50 day moving avg can sniff out bottoms...every time it goes below 30% usually marks a bottom...also need to watch blow off tops in the VIX(watch if its trading above 2 standard deviations above the mean).

I usually post on trading boards but since I spend alot of time on here, I will start a thread here.

http://screencast.com/t/3kiho4tgNrw

[NYCGP]

[mact3333]

watch for VIX blowoffs to form bottom on SPX

http://screencast.com/t/0Mz0wvp6OP

[mact3333]

Charts saying Greek PM will keep his job...Greek bailout will buy time...Bernanke gonna say economy weak tomorrow and open slight window for QE3...mkts ready to bounce...buy indicators coming in...hehe love talking to myself....

[wuzupfoo]

Im not a super technician though I watch for certain patterns, pivot points and such but either way I'll play!

im watchin for the test of the 1300, since we got a local bottom at 1250. I was fully expecting the bounce off of 1250, now the question is can it reverse the short run trend of making lower highs?

Im pulling back longs in my main portfolio have been since the 1350 high was set and goin cash for now. Too much headline risk though I was very tempted to play the bounce off 1250, now its too late and we're already at resistance. Action over the next couple days will determine if this market can breakout.. at which point I will continue to liquidate main portfolio (ie. for investing) into rallies and look for a put opportunity in my speculative option account.

Obviously my bias short run is for falling prices overall until the market proves otherwise so im looking for a strong rally ultimately to fail at the 1350 high set earlier this year then falling rapidly then leading to QE3. And if Im wrong and it goes beyond 1350 and rally looks like it has legs, well its risk on again

now back to work! haha

[mact3333]

I think we rally for next week or two....looking for ES target of 1320...we either pull back at at this level but if mkts accept prices above this level we will rally for rest of yr and make new all time highs in the mkts.


http://screencast.com/t/XZn5GHfM1nse

Originally Posted by wuzupfoo

Im not a super technician though I watch for certain patterns, pivot points and such but either way I'll play!

im watchin for the test of the 1300, since we got a local bottom at 1250. I was fully expecting the bounce off of 1250, now the question is can it reverse the short run trend of making lower highs?

Im pulling back longs in my main portfolio have been since the 1350 high was set and goin cash for now. Too much headline risk though I was very tempted to play the bounce off 1250, now its too late and we're already at resistance. Action over the next couple days will determine if this market can breakout.. at which point I will continue to liquidate main portfolio (ie. for investing) into rallies and look for a put opportunity in my speculative option account.

Obviously my bias short run is for falling prices overall until the market proves otherwise so im looking for a strong rally ultimately to fail at the 1350 high set earlier this year then falling rapidly then leading to QE3. And if Im wrong and it goes beyond 1350 and rally looks like it has legs, well its risk on again

now back to work! haha

[wuzupfoo]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I think we rally for next week or two....looking for ES target of 1320...we either pull back at at this level but if mkts accept prices above this level we will rally for rest of yr and make new all time highs in the mkts.


http://screencast.com/t/XZn5GHfM1nse

agreed.. sorry was not looking at my charts at work so I was quoting roundabout numbers from memory of my charts.. I think we are pretty much in agreement. It can be a good thing to get verification from someone else but I would love to see someone disagree... you only learn when someone questions your thought process... but I dont think we are gonna get that here..

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by wuzupfoo

agreed.. sorry was not looking at my charts at work so I was quoting roundabout numbers from memory of my charts.. I think we are pretty much in agreement. It can be a good thing to get verification from someone else but I would love to see someone disagree... you only learn when someone questions your thought process... but I dont think we are gonna get that here..

Bernanke disappointed so all bets off...mkts can go either way now...we needed a sniff of QE3 and didnt get it...

[AngelinIsRich08]

No QE3 and SLV has not budged. WTF????? I thought owning SLV ETF's would offset my other losses. Guess not.

[wuzupfoo]

No QE3 hint is precisely why its going nowhere. Commodities are a poor hedge when overall economy is about to tank.. slv is better for when things are heating up, inflation wise, with deflationary head winds coming precious metals are not the ideal hedge.. but wait till QE3 ... it will take off!

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

No QE3 and SLV has not budged. WTF????? I thought owning SLV ETF's would offset my other losses. Guess not.

Metals and the general mkts move the same way...QE means weak dollar...weak dollar means hidden inflation , which ultimately means asset prices must go up, including metals....so no QE3 means strong dollar(look at the USD today up big) which means the metals will get crushed along with the general mkts.

If you want to hedge long positions, either buy deep in the money SPY puts or ZSL, which is a double inverse short silver etf.

[ghosthi32]

not you again

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by ghosthi32

not you again

Chickar Meekhani my friend....

This board for actual traders so GTFO!...just kiddin ya....

Stay but if you do, please try to contribute something other than sracasm...

[ghosthi32]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Chickar Meekhani my friend....

divooneh

[ES_TRADER]

there's a gap above @ 1313 ES_F....target fill and reverse to short

[AngelinIsRich08]

Originally Posted by ghosthi32

divooneh

Does divooneh mean bastard or something or is that his name? Lol.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by richpuer

there's a gap above @ 1313 ES_F....target fill and reverse to short

If we could just take out 1290 to complete the mini cup handle pattern we should head towards your 1313 target...buying pressure is coming in though...you can see the money flow coming into the metals including miners(although SLV down today).

http://screencast.com/t/OCJI4xu7lHK

[ghosthi32]

Originally Posted by AngelinIsRich08

Does divooneh mean bastard or something or is that his name? Lol.

means crazy lol

[mact3333]

we are 1 gap up from completing cup/handle pattern...LT and ST trend up now...if ES clears 1295-7 and mkt accepts prices above this area then IT trend flips upward also and the 2 month bear we witnessed prob over...sentiment readings say we rally for awhile now...we were too oversold and bear sentiment too high.

Despite silver price going down for past 2 wks, the effective volume(money flow ) has been positive, that tells me something.

[AngelinIsRich08]

What I'm expecting is the Dow to fall below 12k after the jobs reports come out this Friday, July 1.

[mact3333]

Trend is up in all 3 time frames now....IT flipped up above 1295-7....hope you took bullish bias, as this thread did, 1-2 wks ago.

The actual stock isnt important...the overall mkt is.

I have been long AGQ for past week and will accumulate more.

[mact3333]

anybody remember this chart posted awhile back...TA doesnt lie, only humans...not sure what that means but it sounds cool.......this is why charts are so important, its cuts through the BS...I want targets people and why!.......this chart was posted 8 days ago.

http://screencast.com/t/XZn5GHfM1nse

ES/SPX should hit resistance just about now at 1318 level...what we do here will be key for rest of the year.

If mkts accept above this level we will hit new all time highs in the mkts in approx 6 months...if mkts reject this level, the bear mkt will cont and make new intra-year lows.