[-c-]

Originally Posted by AndreyATC

400,000 orders and counting...
That's just crazy
rEVolution is coming

P.S. Regarding muscle memory and touchscreen.
It works just fine
My hand easily finds desired command on the screen without looking
Just like I know where to push the icons on my iPhone
It's light years easier than dozens of confusing buttons

Blackberry style is so last century

Works for you my friend but many others are not so lucky.

Again this is data taken from thousands of people theirs always going to be a few that break the mold but unfortunately like many drivers on the road today it doesn't work for everybody . Plus the problem is compounded when many of our customers are brought in for the concept study and given a various concepts and 90% of them want physical buttons.

It's hard to push for something their not used to and in many ways keeps the automotive world from advancing into new bold directions but companies want to make money and they want to promote that they listen to their customers.

We are in constant battle with engineering and ergonomics to try and break the mold and do knew things but it's hard, sometimes you get the best stuff with startups as they do not have the years and years of legacy that many others have.

The cost reduction alone going to a screen instead of buttons is enormously big. But again the buttons if done right can be beautiful and if done right they can add something, it has to fit the product as well. It makes sense on an electric car, part of the Mini Coopers charm was the toggle switches on the center council which was a throw back to the Origanal. Having touch screens in a mini would not look right. Theirs never one pill for everything.

[AndreyATC]

I totally understand what you're saying
The only thing I may disagree is that touchscreen is more for electric versus other cars.
Regardless of the drivetrain you still have to perform the same functions
Coming from years of BMWs and Audis experiences I can confidently say that touch screen works much easier for me.
Everything is so well organized, I never have to think twice where to find specific feature
Also as they add more new features with over the air update it doesn't have to create more buttons, just additional menu items etc.

[MalibuBimmer]

Touch screen vs. mouse is one issue.

Also, most manufacturers who now use screens of some kind still have some dedicated buttons for radio and climate controls as those appear to be the ones used most where buttons rather than a computer screen are most useful.

I think Tesla just took the cheapest way out. If you look at the interior of the S model (I haven't seen the X model yet), "cheapest way out" describes the entire interior and ergonomic experience.

[AndreyATC]

Originally Posted by MalibuBimmer

Touch screen vs. mouse is one issue.

Also, most manufacturers who now use screens of some kind still have some dedicated buttons for radio and climate controls as those appear to be the ones used most where buttons rather than a computer screen are most useful.

I think Tesla just took the cheapest way out. If you look at the interior of the S model (I haven't seen the X model yet), "cheapest way out" describes the entire interior and ergonomic experience.

It's not touchscreen vs. mouse, it's touchscreen vs. terrible turn-click-and-turn-click-repeat-dozen-times interface
I thought i-Drive was the best thing out there when i had it, but that quickly changed

Complaining that Tesla cheap-ed out on the interior by utilizing touchscreen is like complaining not having extra physical buttons on your iPhone/iPad.
Climate, volume, and etc are on the fixed portion of the screen and never move or disappear, regardless of the menu chosen
Also, i can control most of the stuff from steering wheel
Trust me, it is much easier to navigate through items in your car with the way Tesla implemented it
Everything is one or two clicks (touches) away at the most

[MalibuBimmer]

The X is having quality control problems and Tesla stock has crashed. Here's the story. (Sorry about the video coming on with Elon Musk pimping the new X.)

Since BMW has lost its iTeam to China's Tencent, my bet is on BMW buying out Tesla. Probably by 2018. BMW gets Tesla's battery plant, not too far from BMW's carbon fiber plant, Tesla's technology (such as it is) and Tesla gets BMW designers, exterior and interior. Plus BMW drivers will get to use the superchargers (and possibly upgraded batteries). A win-win.

Watch for it. We will all be friends again!

[AndreyATC]

Dreaming is not prohibited, i guess
X is just fine, especially the recent production
Kinks are being worked out much faster compared to most manufacturers
And, owner satisfaction is unheard of

http://insideevs.com/consumer-report...-satisfaction/



Apparently, owners who experienced some issues, still love their cars
But then again, it's well known for any car to have fair amount of problems in the introduction of new model

P.S. For me personally, there are fewer trips to service center than in any other cars i've owned

[-c-]

Originally Posted by AndreyATC

Dreaming is not prohibited, i guess
X is just fine, especially the recent production
Kinks are being worked out much faster compared to most manufacturers
And, owner satisfaction is unheard of

http://insideevs.com/consumer-report...-satisfaction/

[IMG]http://cdn1.autoexpress.co.uk/sites/...?itok=fBXGcYfL[/IMG]

Apparently, owners who experienced some issues, still love their cars
But then again, it's well known for any car to have fair amount of problems in the introduction of new model

P.S. For me personally, there are fewer trips to service center than in any other cars i've owned

Yea I think inherently you'll get that in an electric car as it's simpler and has less moving parts to break

The i3 has also been the best BMW I have ever owned as the only issue I've had with it was a steering wheel switch and rear back up camera delaminating.

If it where any other BMW I would have been to the shop countless times with engine and trans related issues. This would be my 8th BMW.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by MalibuBimmer

The X is having quality control problems and Tesla stock has crashed.

Really?
See the attached comparison chart vs. SPX - not looking too shabby for TSLA.

Originally Posted by MalibuBimmer

[...]my bet is on BMW buying out Tesla. Probably by 2018.

If BMW was serious about EVs, it would be ramping up investment into them internally. Instead, the internal team defection indicates that they were getting bored senseless sitting on their asses without funding. That indicates BMW Corporate neglect of EVs, not budgeted additional investment into that product space.

TSLA M&A would be very expensive, and borderline unaffordable for BMW.
TSLA is already a $33B stock. With M&A premium, it would be a $50+B acquisition.

BMW's market cap is only $54B as of today (similar to GM's and Ford's, by the way).

By 2018, TSLA is likely to be in position to buy any of these 3, not the other way around.

a

[AndreyATC]

Food for thought
Things are happening and happening quickly

BMW should stop being ignorant and jump on Electric bandwagon as soon as possible

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13538...h-roundup.html

Ford has reportedly ponied up a pretty penny or two to get its hands on Tesla Motors' new SUV, the Model X. Apparently, the automaker paid nearly $200,000 for the new vehicle, $50,000 more than its sticker price. With taxes, the total came out to nearly $212,000.

The company wants to test and examine Tesla's handiwork and it was willing to pay a premium to do so. It's not that strange for automakers to buy vehicles from its competitors to test them out and strip them down. But it's kind of weird Ford was willing to pay so much for one.

Ford has purchased the 64th Model X, buying it from a California resident who was able to buy the vehicle through Tesla's customer referral program.

Ford has committed to investing $4.5 billion in electric vehicles, but they're not the only ones making big moves. General Motors and Toyota are both expected to buy the Model X as well, with all three companies keeping a steadfast commitment to upping their game in the technology portion of the auto world.

[-c-]

Originally Posted by AndreyATC

Food for thought
Things are happening and happening quickly

BMW should stop being ignorant and jump on Electric bandwagon as soon as possible

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13538...h-roundup.html

You know it's kind of nice to see an American car company being at the front of the line again.
Growing up and seeing our auto industry being controlled with bean counters and cost reduction laid the way to sub par autos and a stained image.

It's nice to see products fueled by passion again . It gets the rest of the world moving

You build a good product the pennies will take care of themselves.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by -c-

By the way did you see the newly refreshed model s front end? Took more of a model 3 / model X front end now. Not sure if I'm a fan, def not a wow ! More of an eh..... Technically they don't need one, but for a whole new facia and headlight they could have updated it more.

Headlight looks cool but it's the same shape. :/

Here is more on Model 3 exterior walk around:

http://www.technobuffalo.com/2016/04...d-gigafactory/

a

[-c-]

Originally Posted by afadeev

Here is more on Model 3 exterior walk around:

http://www.technobuffalo.com/2016/04...d-gigafactory/

a

The model S refresh Is growing on me . I think the Origanal pics weren't doing it any favors but the last pics I've seen it didn't look all that bad.

The model 3 I'm still going to wait till I see it in person sometimes things don't photo well but when seen in real life everything comes together.

At least it confirmed my thoughts of the interior.

[afadeev]

"German automakers who once laughed off Elon Musk are now starting to worry...:

http://www.latimes.com/business/auto...419-story.html

[encikseth]

Niceeee

[ky_soldier]

this is the reality check that I believe in. There is no way that Musk can build a Model 3 for $35k. None of the actual details of production etc are worked out and we are to believe that because there are pre orders that this thing will come out on time and under budget. I live in the world of defense contracts and see this daily. NFW is what I say. I am sure it will be decent, but not at $35k, and there is no capacity to deliver anywhere near the preorder amounts. I'll believe it when I see it on sale in mass quantities.

http://www.driven.co.nz/news/news/wi...tually-launch/

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by ky_soldier

this is the reality check that I believe in. There is no way that Musk can build a Model 3 for $35k. None of the actual details of production etc are worked out and we are to believe that because there are pre orders that this thing will come out on time and under budget. I live in the world of defense contracts and see this daily. NFW is what I say. I am sure it will be decent, but not at $35k, and there is no capacity to deliver anywhere near the preorder amounts. I'll believe it when I see it on sale in mass quantities.

http://www.driven.co.nz/news/news/wi...tually-launch/

I studied manufacturing engineering in college as my major, mostly with an emphasis on the automotive industry. I've been in the industry of producing products in some form or fashion for the better part of my professional career and I 100% agree with this. Setting aside the R&D that Tesla has been investing for better part of a decade to develop its cars (this includes production development), even at an average of $100K transaction price Tesla is still not making a profit. Musk has stated that 2016 is the year Tesla will start making a per-car profit on the Model S.

That would assume that the R&D development costs for the model S are now amortized (depends on how the company treats its accounting of these costs). So for the Model 3 to sell at an average of $42K retail price (Musk's number) Tesla somehow has to get somewhere between $40K to $60K out of the production cost of the Model 3 vs. the Model S to sell the Model 3 at a profit. Some of these costs can be reduced by an increase in production volume, but it's not a 1 for 1 gain, meaning if you increase production volume by 50% you don't reduce the cost of production by 50%. Another way to reduce the production cost of the car is to use a different chassis design, different materials, and a different component suite. For the Model 3 to cost (MSRP) about half of the Model S it will probably need a complete redesign of the chassis to make it less costly to produce - but that means MORE R&D cost to amortize. I've seen the raw chassis of the Model S and it looks quite expensive to produce and it is completely made out aluminum. It uses extrusions (that then need to be formed), complex castings (the front support is a work of art - and expensive to make), and stampings, all welded together. The battery, as a cost component of the vehicle, doesn't cost enough to manufacture that it provides a place to significantly reduce the cost of the car, so even though the Giga Factory is going to (significantly) reduce the cost of the battery, it not going to get a significant cost out of the production of the Model 3.

On top of this, the EV market is still quite limited. It currently sits at about 1% of the US market sales. Move that number to say 5% of the market, it still is not enough increase is sales volume to increase production volumes to help significantly lower the cost of production.

Throw in the fact that GM will have the Bolt in showrooms for sale by the 4th quarter of 2016 and illegible for the $7,500 tax credit is not going to help any of Tesla's efforts to sell the Model 3 at $42K (where by the time the majority of Model 3's are available to the public the Tax credit program will be over for Tesla).

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by -c-

You know it's kind of nice to see an American car company being at the front of the line again.

Agree completely!
I've never been a "buy-American no matter what" kinda guy, but I feel like cheering for Tesla for that reason alone!

Originally Posted by -c-

It's nice to see products fueled by passion again . It gets the rest of the world moving

You build a good product the pennies will take care of themselves.

Indeed.
Though, there is no shortage of Tesla nay-sayers out there, even on these boards!

a

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I studied manufacturing engineering in college as my major, mostly with an emphasis on the automotive industry. I've been in the industry of producing products in some form or fashion for the better part of my professional career and I 100% agree with this. Setting aside the R&D that Tesla has been investing for better part of a decade to develop its cars (this includes production development), even at an average of $100K transaction price Tesla is still not making a profit. Musk has stated that 2016 is the year Tesla will start making a per-car profit on the Model S.

Thanks for thoughtful analysis, but the last statement above is an occasionally quoted misconception.

Tesla is making money on Model S - has been gross profit positive for may quarters now. They are negative net of R&D investment into new lines of business (GigaFactory, Model 3 scaling up, etc), but as long as those are NPV positive investments, they are doing the right thing.

Their stated 2016 goal was to be net profitable, but when Model 3 demand exceeded expectations, they changed tack and decided to accelerate Model 3 production ramp-up and delay net profitability time frame:

Old goal: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-te...-idUSKCN0VJ2J6
Why Tesla can go net profitable, if it forgoes investment into the future: http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...it-wanted.aspx
Ditching old goal: http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/04/news...esla-earnings/

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Another way to reduce the production cost of the car is to use a different chassis design, different materials, and a different component suite. For the Model 3 to cost (MSRP) about half of the Model S it will probably need a complete redesign of the chassis to make it less costly to produce - but that means MORE R&D cost to amortize.

That is exactly what they are doing!
Model 3 is a complete redesign of Model S, with an eye towards lowering manufacturing cost and shortening production cycle time.

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

On top of this, the EV market is still quite limited. It currently sits at about 1% of the US market sales. Move that number to say 5% of the market, it still is not enough increase is sales volume to increase production volumes to help significantly lower the cost of production.

Fair point.
Yet, Model 3 garnered ~380K pre-order deposits, which is ~3x the total EV sales in the US in 2015! I don't think anyone expected that, including Tesla.

Evidently, there is this mountain of latent EV demand in the US marketplace that has remained untapped by the present EV offerings, including the i3 (sales falling YTD vs. 2015 YTD). Model 3 hit just the right mix of price / range / form-function to, potentially, triple EV sales in the US.

Now the challenge for Tesla is to scale up production to meet that demand before someone else (Bolt?) does.
It's definitely a problem, but a good one to have!

a

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by afadeev

Thanks for thoughtful analysis, but the last statement above is an occasionally quoted misconception.

Tesla is making money on Model S - has been gross profit positive for may quarters now. They are negative net of R&D investment into new lines of business (GigaFactory, Model 3 scaling up, etc), but as long as those are NPV positive investments, they are doing the right thing.

Their stated 2016 goal was to be net profitable, but when Model 3 demand exceeded expectations, they changed tack and decided to accelerate Model 3 production ramp-up and delay net profitability time frame:

Old goal: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-te...-idUSKCN0VJ2J6
Why Tesla can go net profitable, if it forgoes investment into the future: http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...it-wanted.aspx
Ditching old goal: http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/04/news...esla-earnings/




That is exactly what they are doing!
Model 3 is a complete redesign of Model S, with an eye towards lowering manufacturing cost and shortening production cycle time.



Fair point.
Yet, Model 3 garnered ~380K pre-order deposits, which is ~3x the total EV sales in the US in 2015! I don't think anyone expected that, including Tesla.

Evidently, there is this mountain of latent EV demand in the US marketplace that has remained untapped by the present EV offerings, including the i3 (sales falling YTD vs. 2015 YTD). Model 3 hit just the right mix of price / range / form-function to, potentially, triple EV sales in the US.

Now the challenge for Tesla is to scale up production to meet that demand before someone else (Bolt?) does.
It's definitely a problem, but a good one to have!

a

I hope Tesla is successful, but a complete redesign of the Model 3 will cost a lot of investment dollars. Yes Tesla is far up the EV design learning curve but of course not being privy to a lot of things both financial and production-wise, it is still going to take some serious innovation to get that kind of money out of the the cost of the car.

I think a lot of the pre-purchase Agreements are a lot of people thinking the Model 3 will be a Model S at $40K rather than $100K. Once the real car hits the streets and is critically reviewed, a lot of those potential sales could vaporize rather quickly. I doubt Tesla can make the Model 3 a quality-equivalent to the Model S at half the price. It's still a lot of money for a car that still has a limited range.

[Kiwi]

As some knew I've been very close to buying an i3 but their's one big disadvantage in owning just a battery car. When the power goes down you're finished and stuck where it runs out and the small amount of petrol in the Rex tank has been used as well.

I've purchased a BMW's 225xe and it arrives 22nd June. Petrol is still cheap and owning the best of both worlds works for me. I can use battery around town and have the petrol option when driving freeways sipping very little petrol as well it's a lot cheaper to buy than an i3. The list of bad and good points is defiantly better than the i3 ever will be.

People need to look past the hype and see which is going to work and work for the whole family.

BMW has surpassed the Model 3 with their new 330e:- 5.9s 0-60 and 225xe:- 5.7s 0-60 which is fast enough. They each having a full petrol engines.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I think a lot of the pre-purchase Agreements are a lot of people thinking the Model 3 will be a Model S at $40K rather than $100K. Once the real car hits the streets and is critically reviewed, a lot of those potential sales could vaporize rather quickly.

I can not speak for other people, but I put deposit down on Model 3 exactly because it is not Model S.

Don't get me wrong: I test drove Model S, and loved many things about it: the handling, acceleration, interior quality, the tech. The size and turning radios, however, were way too big for my needs. And so was the price.

Notice that I don't own, and don't foresee a need to own a 5-/7-sized vehicle. At least not for the next 5/10-years.

Model 3 should address both of my key objections w.r.t. Model S.
But it wasn't available when my i3 lease end date was coming up, so I got another i3 to bide time until my place in line for Model 3 is up. Likely some time in late-2018/early-2019, as I'm going to wait for the 'D' version to come out

The spy shots of Model 3 release candidate on the road are not bad looking at all:
https://electrek.co/2017/05/03/tesla...-new-4k-video/
https://electrek.co/guides/tesla-model-3/

Interior remains an open question, with HUD still not committed.

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I doubt Tesla can make the Model 3 a quality-equivalent to the Model S at half the price. It's still a lot of money for a car that still has a limited range.

Agreed.
I fully expect to find lower quality and price interior components. Perhaps, something above Bolt, but below BMW. Which will be just fine.

a

[Kiwi]

Come on Tesla loses money with every car it builds.
Just try and charge when the power goes down or you need to wait for hours to use a charging station.
You still need a petrol engine combined with a plugin.