[cgnahc]

Double black Mondays.

[txusa03]

do you have to announce it to the whole wide world and cause a big fear and panic in people

[louz4]

Originally Posted by txusa03

do you have to announce it to the whole wide world and cause a big fear and panic in people

And then it goes up the next day and all is quiet.

[darkphantom]

ka-bewm

[Dleo]

buy on the dips, and sell into the rally's boys!
theres always money to be made

[txusa03]

Originally Posted by Dleo

buy on the dips, and sell into the rally's boys!
theres always money to be made

as in buy low sell high

[UltimateBMW]

Originally Posted by txusa03

do you have to announce it to the whole wide world and cause a big fear and panic in people

I'd prefer that the word got out, everyone paniced, and we got it all over with.

The only thing worse than a depression is waiting on the verge of one clearly about to begin. Everyone that bought something they couldn't afford is going to pay their dues, and lets get this shit back on track already. The more the economy delays is just making it all more stressful and aggrevating. IMHO.

[jlspeed29]

ohhh yea! i'm lovin it!!!!!

picked up 500 shares of AIG!!! woot woot!!!!!!

[darkphantom]

i'm low on cash, but if I had 25k of equity....i'd be banking right now

[louz4]

Originally Posted by UltimateBMW

I'd prefer that the word got out, everyone paniced, and we got it all over with.

The only thing worse than a depression is waiting on the verge of one clearly about to begin. Everyone that bought something they couldn't afford is going to pay their dues, and lets get this shit back on track already. The more the economy delays is just making it all more stressful and aggrevating. IMHO.

I don't think there will be a depression. But no matter which sap is elected we are pobably in for a long painful recession.

[Dleo]

Originally Posted by jlspeed29

ohhh yea! i'm lovin it!!!!!

picked up 500 shares of AIG!!! woot woot!!!!!!

theres plenty of great companys out there, GE hit a 11 year low today!

When defensive stocks hit new lows, load up, and laugh your ass to the bank.

[txusa03]

Originally Posted by UltimateBMW

I'd prefer that the word got out, everyone paniced, and we got it all over with.

The only thing worse than a depression is waiting on the verge of one clearly about to begin. Everyone that bought something they couldn't afford is going to pay their dues, and lets get this shit back on track already. The more the economy delays is just making it all more stressful and aggrevating. IMHO.

same here, we all know it will bottom out but the wait is not fun and the fact that gov't is sticking their hands in the blender really delay the process.

[UltimateBMW]

Source: http://economics.about.com/cs/busine...epressions.htm

There is an old joke among economists that states:
A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

A depression is when you lose your job.

The difference between the two terms is not very well understood for one simple reason: There is not a universally agreed upon definition. If you ask 100 different economists to define the terms recession and depression, you would get at least 100 different answers. I will try to summarize both terms and explain the differences between them in a way that almost all economists could agree with.


Recession: The Newspaper Definition
The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters.
This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons. First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.


Recession: The BCDC Definition
The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides a better way to find out if there is a recession is taking place. This committee determines the amount of business activity in the economy by looking at things like employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale-retail sales. They define a recession as the time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it is called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year.

Depression
Before the Great Depression of the 1930s any downturn in economic activity was referred to as a depression. The term recession was developed in this period to differentiate periods like the 1930s from smaller economic declines that occurred in 1910 and 1913. This leads to the simple definition of a depression as a recession that lasts longer and has a larger decline in business activity.

The Difference
So how can we tell the difference between a recession and a depression? A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.
By this yardstick, the last depression in the United States was from May 1937 to June 1938, where real GDP declined by 18.2 percent. If we use this method then the Great Depression of the 1930s can be seen as two separate events: an incredibly severe depression lasting from August 1929 to March 1933 where real GDP declined by almost 33 percent, a period of recovery, then another less severe depression of 1937-38. The United States hasn’t had anything even close to a depression in the post-war period. The worst recession in the last 60 years was from November 1973 to March 1975, where real GDP fell by 4.9 percent. Countries such as Finland and Indonesia have suffered depressions in recent memory using this definition.

So basically, the only real thing differentiating the two is severity, and the verbal connotation linking the word Depression to the 'Great Depression'. Or, to say that the word depression causes poeple to feel more nervous, where as recession is a more pleasant way of saying it.

[Blake]

Originally Posted by louz4

And then it goes up the next day and all is quiet.

but the problem is the trend is downward...the rebounds aren't that significant enough and sustained while the sell-offs are greater than the rebounds over time. just look at the 6 month trend...

[Dleo]

Originally Posted by blakepilot

but the problem is the trend is downward...the rebounds aren't that significant enough and sustained while the sell-offs are greater than the rebounds over time. just look at the 6 month trend...

its people panic selling. the media has put fear into everybody.

if you go back to the basics, and invest in companys that you feel are undervalued, you WILL make money. (Nasdaq had more then 1,000 new lows today, and 50% of NYSE stocks also hit new lows today!!)

[toofasttooslow]

Originally Posted by Dleo

its people panic selling. the media has put fear into everybody.

if you go back to the basics, and invest in companys that you feel are undervalued, you WILL make money. (Nasdaq had more then 1,000 new lows today, and 50% of NYSE stocks also hit new lows today!!)

Trick is when to buy in and when to get out. If you're long then it's a perfect opportunity to buy in at this level, but if you don't have the stomach for what could possibly come then don't get in at all. You'll only lose your cool and that leads to stupid mistakes like selling before the upticks.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by blakepilot

but the problem is the trend is downward...the rebounds aren't that significant enough and sustained while the sell-offs are greater than the rebounds over time. just look at the 6 month trend...

Being on the right side of the trend is 95% of the work...

For longer term holdings, you will have to withstand gigantic mood swings in the market. Of course, this translates into wide risk exposure. The weaker holders will sell.

Too bad there is no short cover rally.

[Dleo]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

Being on the right side of the trend is 95% of the work...

For longer term holdings, you will have to withstand gigantic mood swings in the market. Of course, this translates into wide risk exposure. The weaker holders will sell.

Too bad there is no short cover rally.

Actually, it was mostly financial's that got banned on short selling.

I believe the ban gets lifted tomorrow or Wed.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by gum5h03

Trick is when to buy in and when to get out. If you're long then it's a perfect opportunity to buy in at this level, but if you don't have the stomach for what could possibly come then don't get in at all. You'll only lose your cool and that leads to stupid mistakes like selling before the upticks.

When to get out or exit strategy is most important. You got to know how to win the game before you play, right? Long entries now...even with a mild rally into the close today (10/6/08) is dangerous. There is no base, no reversal pattern developing.

[cgnahc]

Originally Posted by Dleo

Actually, it was mostly financial's that got banned on short selling.

I believe the ban gets lifted tomorrow or Wed.

really? what/where is your reference?

[Dleo]

The Securities and Exchange Commission said the ban would expire three business days after a $700 billion federal bailout bill was enacted, but would not last beyond Oct. 17.

http://www.cnbc.com//id/26982107

[Blake]

Originally Posted by cgnahc

Being on the right side of the trend is 95% of the work...

For longer term holdings, you will have to withstand gigantic mood swings in the market. Of course, this translates into wide risk exposure. The weaker holders will sell.

Too bad there is no short cover rally.

i haven't sold virtually anything. my portfolio has had a significant devaluing lately, but i'd be stupid to sell right now. i've chosen to just ride it out and hope that nothing serious like another great depression happens. i have confidence in the world powers that they will do everything possible to avoid a global economic depression...knock on wood. i'm more worried about waking up one morning and the money in my wallet is worthless than selling everything.