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      04-21-2021, 08:21 PM   #1
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Used car prices leap on economic recovery and supply crunch

https://www.bloombergquint.com/busin...-supply-crunch

The index is compiled by market researcher Cox Automotive Inc. The data takes into account all U.S. sales through Cox’s Manheim automotive auctions that fall in to one of 20 different market classes, excluding motorcycles and vehicles like heavy trucks, and is adjusted for seasonality and mileage.

“Demand is perfectly stimulated from improving consumer sentiment, recovering jobs, accumulated pandemic savings, tax refund season, and American Rescue Plan cash payments,” Cox Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said in an email. “Supply was decimated last year by COVID-19 shutdowns reducing new vehicle production, and used supply was reduced from strong demand last summer. Production remains limited as supply chains struggle to overcome issues like the semiconductor shortages.”

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/busin...-supply-crunch
Copyright © BloombergQuint
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      04-21-2021, 10:29 PM   #2
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Perfect timing to sell my 1985 635csi Group A replica race car :-)
I have been looking for a F10 for 2 years, and prices didn't go down, they went up... Crazy!
I was very luck to find a deal on my F30.

Weird times... Now, give us a chart on the price of wood!
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      04-21-2021, 11:31 PM   #3
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I just got an offer from Carvana to buy my 2018 wrangler with 25k miles on it for $35k. I paid $34k for it brand new and the sticker price was $38.5k. Nuts.
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      04-22-2021, 06:48 AM   #4
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The other side of the coin of selling a car in a strong market, is that you then need to buy a car in a strong market. That is, if the car you sold was your daily/only vehicle. I’m looking to arbitrage prices by selling a desirable vehicle, then buying a vehicle with strong depreciation. That’s a theory, we’ll see if it works.
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      04-22-2021, 06:57 AM   #5
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Prices have definitely gotten crazy. My brother just swapped his X5 50i for an X5M and was talking about how nuts the market is right now. I got curious and priced my car on Carvana and was pretty surprised.

I bought mine (2018 M3 Comp, $90.5k sticker) for $61k in September 2019 with 17k miles. I'm currently at 30k miles 18 months later and Carvana offered me $53k. $8k depreciation in 18 months/13k miles isn't bad.
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      04-22-2021, 07:45 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricVR4 View Post
...
I bought mine (2018 M3 Comp, $90.5k sticker) for $61k in September 2019 with 17k miles. I'm currently at 30k miles 18 months later and Carvana offered me $53k. $8k depreciation in 18 months/13k miles isn't bad.
You have a 20% depreciation the first year you owned it which is typical.
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      04-22-2021, 07:52 AM   #7
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Carmax just 2k more than they did a few months back on my Q50
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      04-22-2021, 08:49 AM   #8
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You have a 20% depreciation the first year you owned it which is typical.
I honestly figured it would be worse with as much as any "luxury" car tanks. With that offer, I assume they'd try to list the car at $58-59k, which is nearly what I bought it for 18 months ago.
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      04-22-2021, 08:56 AM   #9
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Where do we think this is going? What i mean is, supply will be affected for what, another year or so at least, if not more no?
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      04-22-2021, 12:44 PM   #10
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One of the things I love about my 2017 Tacoma is how well Toyota trucks hold their value. I keep track of the annual depreciation of my vehicles in my financial software, and was recently looking at the values for my Tacoma according to KBB. I was expecting to see minor depreciation, but instead was surprised to see values appreciate to a range with a high end slightly above what I paid for the truck.

I'm guessing in addition to the increased demand for used vehicles, the appreciating values are possibly also due to rising costs of new vehicles. For example, an equivalent 2021 model of my truck now costs about $4k more than what mine listed for.
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      04-22-2021, 01:34 PM   #11
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One of the things I love about my 2017 Tacoma is how well Toyota trucks hold their value. I keep track of the annual depreciation of my vehicles in my financial software, and was recently looking at the values for my Tacoma according to KBB. I was expecting to see minor depreciation, but instead was surprised to see values appreciate to a range with a high end slightly above what I paid for the truck.

I'm guessing in addition to the increased demand for used vehicles, the appreciating values are possibly also due to rising costs of new vehicles. For example, an equivalent 2021 model of my truck now costs about $4k more than what mine listed for.
I'm thinking a lot of it is this part, yeah. The cost of new vehicles is just insane these days and they do not reflect the inflation/salary increases of the average person. I think people are just tired of it and they realize if they can find a 1 year old, almost new car, they can save on 20% of the depreciation immediately.

That's what I've been doing with my last few cars too. I bought my '18 at 11 months old and saved 30% of the sticker price.
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      04-22-2021, 04:54 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by dgoldenz View Post
I just got an offer from Carvana to buy my 2018 wrangler with 25k miles on it for $35k. I paid $34k for it brand new and the sticker price was $38.5k. Nuts.
Try carmax, they quoted me $1k higher than Carvana. I just came back from selling my leased car for $2k more than the lease buyout.
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      04-22-2021, 04:55 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tldude876 View Post
Carmax just 2k more than they did a few months back on my Q50
Ditto, got a quote $3.2k more than two months ago from carmax!
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      04-23-2021, 10:51 AM   #14
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I ran my vin through the MMR and the wholesale value went up $2k from last month. The retail value went up almost $5k.
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      04-23-2021, 10:07 PM   #15
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I use my truck strictly to tow our RV and since we have been looking to buy a vacation home I've been considering selling the truck and RV and buying something smaller in a couple years.

Anyways got a quote for my truck on vroom just to see. I was pretty shocked $66k. Bought it 2 years ago for like $62k with around 20k miles it now has close to 60k miles.
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      04-24-2021, 03:17 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
I use my truck strictly to tow our RV and since we have been looking to buy a vacation home I've been considering selling the truck and RV and buying something smaller in a couple years.

Anyways got a quote for my truck on vroom just to see. I was pretty shocked $66k. Bought it 2 years ago for like $62k with around 20k miles it now has close to 60k miles.
Now's a great time to unload extra vehicles. Hopefully next year the market will stabilize and used cars will be the bargain they once were.
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      04-24-2021, 09:04 AM   #17
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Now's a great time to unload extra vehicles. Hopefully next year the market will stabilize and used cars will be the bargain they once were.
There is no such thing as "extra" vehicles, currently I have 9 and they are all my children.
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      04-24-2021, 12:24 PM   #18
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Quote:
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There is no such thing as "extra" vehicles, currently I have 9 and they are all my children.
Hahahhahha. Love this. I only have 2, but still can relate.
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      04-24-2021, 04:10 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Now's a great time to unload extra vehicles. Hopefully next year the market will stabilize and used cars will be the bargain they once were.
There is no such thing as "extra" vehicles, currently I have 9 and they are all my children.
I had only 5, now down to 4! Where do you find the parking space?!
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      04-24-2021, 08:16 PM   #20
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Quote:
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I had only 5, now down to 4! Where do you find the parking space?!
Have 2 that are garage kept plus my Ducati, 2 are daily and the rest are under car covers. Not ideal and was going to be building a much larger garage this year but with lumber being so high I'm taking a rain check.
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      04-27-2021, 09:05 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
I use my truck strictly to tow our RV and since we have been looking to buy a vacation home I've been considering selling the truck and RV and buying something smaller in a couple years.

Anyways got a quote for my truck on vroom just to see. I was pretty shocked $66k. Bought it 2 years ago for like $62k with around 20k miles it now has close to 60k miles.
Truck market is just silly. Silly enough that I'm really highly considering selling my 2016 Tundra Platinum. I bought mine for $33k with 73k miles. Already got a buy it now quote from Carmax for $33.8 with 86.5k miles. I absolutely adore this truck and love that I know it'll require essentially 0 maintenance in its life, but this is too good to pass up. I might throw it up on Marketplace for a few grand more and see if I get any bites.

I'll be honest, the Tundra is complete overkill for me. I've yet to tow anything with it and usually just use it to haul the dogs and house stuff every now and again. I've been using it primarily as a DD, but my hunch is that when gas prices go up, it'll be relegated to just occasional use and won't be easy to sell when that happens. I may be interested in a PHEV Tundra in the distant future.
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      04-27-2021, 09:18 AM   #22
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The chip shortage seems to really be effecting prices and inventory/production and only getting worse for some brands. I was just told by my local dealer that two high demand vehicles (MB GLA and GLC) in the next month or so will be tougher to get now because of it. I imagine this will also effect other brands and especially the used car market and their values, I know I've seen a lot of articles lately about GM struggling with supply issues for their high demand trucks, and my local Ford dealer's back lot is becoming almost empty!
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