12-21-2020, 09:28 AM | #1 |
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12-21-2020, 05:36 PM | #2 | |
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12-22-2020, 05:22 AM | #3 |
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12-22-2020, 11:54 AM | #4 | |
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12-24-2020, 10:57 AM | #5 | |
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If the i440 has extended range, I'd opt for that instead and the appropriate upcharge. I would guess (and hope) BMW would maintain a similar optioning set-up as they do for the current 2021 4 Series. We shall see.......................... |
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12-24-2020, 12:25 PM | #6 | |
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12-24-2020, 01:55 PM | #7 | |
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It would be a disappointment if they introduced both the i430 and i440 with less that the purported (373 WLTP) and the highest priced model having it. If I had to guess, the i440 will likely be the car with the larger battery and the longer range (if only because it will have the better performance). If that is the case and it costs mid $60K (which is where a M440i sits in comparison to a comparably equipped 430i now, I would likely buy one. i430 with 250 mile range would put me off buying one for sure. If on the other hand, if it has the longer range with a smaller electric motor, I'd opt for that instead. Alas, I think that is only wishful thinking. |
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12-24-2020, 03:17 PM | #8 | |
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12-25-2020, 11:03 AM | #9 | |
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Tesla seems to have the winning hand in battery development as it stands now. Whether you like them or not, Tesla constantly improves their battery tech and since batteries are developed and manufactured "in house", others, that rely on 3rd party suppliers will always be playing catch up IMO. A Model 3 is my fall back if the BMW doesn't meet my expectations. The new Model 3's batteries are certainly a step up from the earlier Model 3's. Additionally, the Model 3 has been in production for a number of years now, so it is a known commodity. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mode...reciate-study/ If one is considering trading their EV after 3-4 years you'd be better off with a Tesla. But lets put that aside for the moment. BMW's have some of the worse resale values among cars. So we know that going in. If you like a BMW (and I do), I accept the fact that I will take a beating when I sell or trade. I expect the i4 to be no different (unless by some miracle it becomes an instant hit and really threatens Tesla's market share). Based on comments about the new 4 series grille, that may make it even tougher if some are put off by its appearance. The other side of the debate comes into the reason why BMW's lose value so quickly. Repair cost. Comparing an ICE to an EV, the EV has a lot less moving parts and very little required maintenance. This should bode well for the i4 providing BMW gets the electronics right. Based on reviews of the i3, BMW gets good marks for reliability compared to ICE cars and even other EV's. So the electronics seem to be sorted out, however depreciation is still an issue compared to others. Finally, range ..................will we see a 300+ mile EPA? My approach is, if I like the looks of the i4 (and I do- at least in pictures), and it has the range and amenities, I will likely buy one. I know I will take a hit on depreciation, but I plan on keeping this car for a long time (and it should wear well over time with the way I drive) based on the i3 reliability scores. The fact that there is a $7500 credit from the start helps in my decision (even though the i4 BMW will be more expensive than a Tesla LR Model 3 w/ the rebate). I'm confident everyone knows how this credit works (my tax liability exceeds $7500 each year so I would see that full rebate when I file)..... If one chooses to lease and finds, after 3-4 years they would like to buy a BMW EV, that credit could be gone once the manufacturer sells enough EV's. Additionally, with a lease you will only get partial credit (if any from the title holder) The Federal EV Tax Credit and Leasing You can lease an EV or plug-in hybrid, and in many cases it’s a great idea to do so. Technology in the electric car segment is advancing so quickly that even experts don’t have a handle on how much used electric vehicles will be worth a few years down the road. With a lease, that value is locked in, and you can get a car with the latest technology at the end of your contract. Just don't expect to get a federal EV tax credit. The credit belongs to the vehicle's titleholder. In the case of a lease, the leasing company holds the title. They sometimes price the value of the tax credit into the lease's monthly payments, so you may get part of the tax credit's benefits in the form of lower monthly payments. |
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12-25-2020, 12:18 PM | #10 |
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I think much of your analysis is spot-on regarding the likely situation for the i4. If the rest of the car is desirable, I will be very flexible on exterior style. But, I am reluctant to buy vs lease for an early effort when I have confidence it will be technically obsoleted with new battery developments.
I don't know BMWFS plan for incorporating the $7500 tax credit into a lease deal. I suspect that leases will be subvented to support volume, especially for the entry model, perhaps using that tax credit to support their lease incentive. My lifestyle doesn't require more than a realistic ~300 miles for any trips we might take and we have two other vehicles. 99+% of the time, recharging as needed in the garage overnight will take care of all needs and having our home's solar power makes it friendlier. The place where you and I diverge is Tesla as a second choice, despite agreeing about their battery/powertain leadership at the moment. I can't accept the rest of the car that surrounds it. It is a known commodity at a low overall quality level. I also have the words of a cousin ringing in my ears who bought and sold his Model 3 within 6 months after it routinely failed to deliver the range promised or even the range shown when first setting out for a trip, and was told that was "normal". Ford Mach E, Polestar 2, Lucid Air Pure, Nissan Aryia, etc. would all come first, even with some range compromise, just to have a superior overall vehicle otherwise.
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12-25-2020, 01:47 PM | #11 |
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Point taken.
Certainly I am not here to change anyone's mind regarding any car brand. I am not a Honda fan, I have owned two and both were nothing but problems. So asking me if they are good cars, well, you can guess my answer. Honda owners are generally happy with their cars and would buy them again. Same can be said for most Tesla owners. I am not a nit-picker when it comes to cars that are mass produced. Things that can drive someone else crazy, wouldn't raise an eyebrow with me. Not knowing all the circumstances regarding your cousin's Model 3, I cannot offer an opinion. The cars do seem to get very good marks from their owners and meet their expectations. https://insideevs.com/features/40360...sfaction-rate/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/01...ed-car-in-usa/ You can always find a core group of haters out there (you can count me as NOT a Honda fan). Whether they hate Tesla, GM, Ford, Porsche, BMW, etc. They generally focus on the people that have a problem with a particular brand and that becomes the narrative even after issues have been addressed and/or resolved. In the latest issue of C&D there was an article titled "Minding the Gap". They measured panel gaps on a whole series of cars. From the article: "For the most part today's vehicles are impressively uniform and tight, and only a few millimeters separate the best from the worst. But even the small margin is big enough to contain a few surprises. For instance, Tesla's oft-criticized gaps measured smaller than average". It can be a minefield wading through articles and opinions on different car brands. All one can do is be informed and make a choice they are comfortable with. However I digress................. I will assume that the i4 when offered, will include the best and latest technology BMW can offer. Much like the computer industry, one can always postpone a purchase because the next generation will be more advanced, faster and include more features. I tend to look at the product I am considering and determine if it checks all the boxes I need checked. If it does and the price is right I buy. Rarely do I experience buyers remorse when a new version is introduced, since the one I have meets all my expectations. Certainly if the following year, the i4 comes out with a 500 mile range battery, perhaps waiting would make sense (that is unlikely). I have pretty much determined that I want a 325 mile range EV. If the i4 can check that box, I'm not going to open my wrists because I adopted early and a 350-375 miles range is offered the following year. If on the other hand, the i4's batteries implode in my garage and my house burns down, I will be pissed. LOL |
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12-25-2020, 05:44 PM | #12 |
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Interesting and pleasant chat for a very quiet holiday afternoon. Our kids are safely not traveling from 2000+ miles away, so I can hear the proverbial "pin drop" around here today.
Complete agreement that brand biases pro and con are deeply personal and subjective. I came to mine about Tesla after having placed and then had refunded a deposit for a Model 3 after I finally saw and sat in one in a showroom early after launch. Since then, the quality reports in JDP and CR have been off-putting for me. But, no doubt dissonance reduction is at work among owners, as it true for any brand. I recall when AMC Pacer owners thought they had the best thing ever on wheels. You've got me rethinking my inclination to lease vs. buy. I also intend a long hold time, and at this stage of my life, annual mileage seems to be tracking under 7500. If the i4 indeed meets the reasonable range target that we hope for, perhaps it would make sense to purchase outright. The next big leap in batteries seems to be solid state and articles I found today suggest that will be in the second half of this decade, no sooner. I agree with you that a minor interim 25-50 mile improvement is not worth the wait. It is also dawning on me that my age makes future plans less predictable than they were a couple of decades ago, and I don't want to miss out on the EV revolution, so I do want to jump in somehow in the next couple of years. I really do want to "love" this car when we finally get to experience it, so, BMW, you have a "ripe" prospect here if all goes well! If not, there will be enough other choices to find a pleasing alternative.
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12-26-2020, 10:56 AM | #14 | |
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Like you, I do not put many miles on either of our cars. Lately, I am more worried about the gas I have in the cars going bad before I can burn enough to get a fresh fill-up. I too hope BMW produces a winner. The concept car looked amazing and appears to have all the amenities I'd ever want in an EV. However I am braced for disappointment (which routinely follows the hype following a concept's debut). I can envision the i430 coming in w/ 230 mile range and the i440 at 260-270 mile range. The M version with the range we both want but priced beyond what I am willing to spend. I do hope I am wrong. What is of concern, if BMW is targeting the Model 3, are they targeting the "Standard Plus" Tesla (260 mile range), or the Tesla Long Range w/ 353 mile range? I truly hope they are targeting the long range version (which is priced at $50K). That would fall in line with the i4's estimated pricing. I would be willing to go to $60K for an i4 with a similar range as Tesla's long range Model 3. So time will tell. Mach E has potential. Although I'm not wanting an SUV type vehicle as my next car. Happy New year! |
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12-26-2020, 11:53 AM | #15 | |
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I have the same general scope of acceptance for price/range. But, I am also surprisingly interested (surprising to me, anyway) in the Mach E, which would be my first lifetime Ford product. I think they are "betting the company" on their successful first major EV step and won't let anything wrong slip through their fingers. I am wanting something with a large liftgate/fold down seats so I can fit my bicycle inside if/when needed and for when the world returns to normal and I do my own Costco runs again versus current deliveries. I also now find that 90%+ of my trips are under 5 miles...often don't reach the operating temperature of an ICE. (Other than taking out my 2 Series just for a longer fun run!) With the Mach E, it does seem there is a trade-off between performance and range, so I am hoping the BMW i4 line up is: i430: entry range (smallest battery) and base performance for base price i440: max range (larger battery) and mid-level performance i4 M50: mid level range (larger battery) but max performance to drain it! (4 motors) With this anticipation, the details will favor for me one of the first two if they get over the reasonable mileage threshold. A positive note....they dropped plans for the X3 EV in North America because they had dealer feedback that the range was inadequate. I presume they are now quite "range sensitive" and see what they are up against.
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12-26-2020, 03:47 PM | #16 |
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Always nice to a have a civil exchange with an fellow enthusiast.
We may not agree on all things but we can agree and build upon those that are common ground. Rare in today's climate. I do hope you are correct in your assessment of the i4 offerings to come. I will be "all in" if the i440 falls where you anticipate. Mid level performance and decent extended range is all I want or can use safely. Based upon your comment about room for a bicycle is something that would be of concern for me also, if my age and physical limitations hadn't eliminated all of my running and bicycling. Although I still look at the world through the eyes of the 30 year old, (until I see my reflection in the mirror), my body refuses to comply with my perceptions. I do however, continue to make Costco runs with the Mini S. It is a bit disconcerting when one views the world with an expiration date looming juxtaposing ones desire to continue to thrive and enjoy all the innovations to come. Lets hope BMW makes the car that we both want and can enjoy going forward. All the best .................. Dennis |
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01-01-2021, 12:27 PM | #17 |
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Interesting (and familiar ) speculation on the model line-up in this new article.
https://www.bmwblog.com/2020/12/31/t...duction-model/
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01-02-2021, 10:11 AM | #18 |
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Interesting. BMW has said that there would only be a 15% change from concept to actual production model. This rendering certainly looks to have more than 15% changed.
Most expected the full glass roof to go away and the mirrors, wheels and perhaps a few of the enhancements in the interior. Word was, the production i4 would, overall look nearly identical to the Concept This looks like a completely different car IMO. This rendering looks Stogy to my eye and not very appealing. It actually reminds of a mid-80's Buick LeSabre. This rendering looks to have a lot more than 15% changed from the concept design. All those spy shots of the camouflaged car running around never looked (to me) like the i4. It looked more like a test mule using a 3 series body or a 2020 Gran coupe or some variation. Honestly, if this is the i4 BMW introduces, I'll be looking at a Model 3, the Mach E, or Nissan Ariya. To market i430 with and expected 200 miles of range is laughable IMO. I'd rather buy a Hyundai Kona, less money and more range. Not an SUV fan but they all look better to my eye (at least they look like modern designs) than what is shown in the i4 production rendering. This actually makes me rethink everything going forward. I may keep my M240i and my Mini S for the time being. Both are paid for and have very low miles. Perhaps in the next year or two we will see more and better EV offerings. Sandy Munro (if you haven't hear of him - Google him) stated that Tesla is the leader as far as EV's go and battery tech, but the VW is nipping at Tesla's as far as battery development. VW is deep into Qunatumscape (solid state battery manufacturer), and Munro believes we will see them start to hit production in 2 years. Munro had mentioned that he hears plenty from other battery producers/developers and can usually sniff out the BS from the fact. He seems pretty confident that Quantumscape is the real deal and will deliver. https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/8/2...ange-charge-vw He further mentioned that Toyota is another one to watch (now teamed with Subaru) in EV development. All the rest are trailing those three. I do hope whoever rendered the production i4 needs and eye exam. I'd still be in for the i4 if it looks like the Concept (minus some of the "gingerbread"). This article certainly doesn't boost my confidence. If you have approx 43 minutes to waste, watch this video interview with Sandy Munro. While it is Tesla based, they do discuss other companies and the EV technology in place and upcoming. Last edited by USA-RET; 01-03-2021 at 08:07 AM.. |
01-02-2021, 11:59 AM | #19 |
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I think the reality of the i4 (who among us is patient enough not to think about this now?! ) is almost easier to picture in our "mind's eye" than with that rendering if we reverse engineer the likely final design from what we do know.
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01-02-2021, 01:24 PM | #20 |
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Interesting conversation. I just purchased outright my new M440iX, anticipating that it will most likely be my last ICE. I’m watching the i4 development and am very interested in seeing it live.
I have a couple friends with Tesla’s, an S and and X. They both love their cars and having driven and examined both, I have say, to overall build is actually not bad. Certainly not as bad as the haters claim. I just find the styling of the S very dated and the X just unattractive and too gimmicky with those full wing rear doors. I’m not a fan of the synthetic interiors. BMW will undoubtably offer much nicer styling and trim options. As far as lease vs purchase... I’ve always been a buyer, but I agree, battery development is progressing pretty quickly now, with improvements every year. Elon Musk may deny it, but solid-state looks like it’s going to happen sooner than later with several manufacturers like Toyota and VW investing heavily. There was a good article in this weekends WSJ about one of the developers, QuantumScape. That said, leasing might not be a bad choice initially, especially if BMW continues to offer their inflated residuals. Then, if you like the EV, buy the next iteration. |
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01-03-2021, 08:31 AM | #21 | |
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I figured I can wait 6-8 months for the i4 to become available and then decide. With more options entering the market, something better may come along. I'd have never guessed Ford would be offering the Mach E (attractively priced with the range). |
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01-17-2021, 07:16 PM | #22 | |
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