[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by hotrod182

If Tesla keeps selling at this rate, service centers will be overwhelmed before long.

They already are. I have to wait a month for an appt for a front motor failure.

[Space Cadet]

And that’s the point isn’t it. Too many cars, too few service centres. There are just 41 Tesla service centres in the UK. The nearest is about 30 miles from me. There are 5 BMW Dealerships within the same local area, two within 10 miles.

[Salespunk]

Originally Posted by daddyrockstar23

Perhaps overpriced, but Tesla is now the #1 luxury automaker by sales with only 4 models, outselling all of BMW by > 30% in 2022 alone!

Tesla: 491,000
BMW: 332,388
Mercedes-Benz: 286,764
Lexus: 258,704
Audi: 186,875
Cadillac: 134,726
Acura: 102,306
Volvo: 102,038

And if you look at just evs….BMW only sold 16,000! 🫣

So even with all of Elon’s foolishness, the best competitors like BMW and VW are still years and years away from catching up

Would you like to qualify your numbers? Globally Tesla delivered about 1.3M vehicles and BMW 2.5M. In the US you are accurate, but Tesla is a long way from catching BMW as a company.

As far as EV's go the I4 and IX only started shipping in March of '22. Tesla has had first mover advantage, but their lack of R&D, lack of design innovation, rigid adherence to Elon's whim's (no Carplay, no ventilated seats, etc) and questionable build quality open the market up to competitors. Tesla simply cannot compete with real car companies in terms of testing, quality, etc.

BTW do some quick math on $10K * 1.3M vehicles and look at what is does to their profitability.

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by Salespunk

Would you like to qualify your numbers? Globally Tesla delivered about 1.3M vehicles and BMW 2.5M. In the US you are accurate, but Tesla is a long way from catching BMW as a company.

As far as EV's go the I4 and IX only started shipping in March of '22. Tesla has had first mover advantage, but their lack of R&D, lack of design innovation, rigid adherence to Elon's whim's (no Carplay, no ventilated seats, etc) and questionable build quality open the market up to competitors. Tesla simply cannot compete with real car companies in terms of testing, quality, etc.

BTW do some quick math on $10K * 1.3M vehicles and look at what is does to their profitability.

Telsa is growing much faster and taking share from Japanese and domestic automakers mainly but also BMW and Daimler, etc. They'll be at 2m vehicles for 2023... and much more profitable. They're vertically integrated and don't have to deal with the behemoth supply chains that other automakers have grown over the years. BMW is very well positioned, but make no mistake - Tesla is absolutely going to surpass BMW in total volume and profitability.

[phantom701]

If people forget, BMW had to jump into EVs because they were forced to do so by Tesla. There were simply too many sales being lost to Tesla especially from those who are 3-Series and 4-Series owners.

I do think if BMW fails to respond, they will stand to lose more sales, especially when Tesla's Giga Berlin begin to hit the same volume as Giga Shanghai.

[techwhiz1]

Originally Posted by M3macster

Telsa is growing much faster and taking share from Japanese and domestic automakers mainly but also BMW and Daimler, etc. They'll be at 2m vehicles for 2023... and much more profitable. They're vertically integrated and don't have to deal with the behemoth supply chains that other automakers have grown over the years. BMW is very well positioned, but make no mistake - Tesla is absolutely going to surpass BMW in total volume and profitability.

Nope, last year Tesla lost global market share. The company delivered more vehicles but market share shrank.

From 71% to 65%.
https://www.investopedia.com/tesla-e...m%20suppliers.

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by techwhiz1

Nope, last year Tesla lost global market share. The company delivered more vehicles but market share shrank.

From 71% to 65%.
https://www.investopedia.com/tesla-e...m%20suppliers.

I can’t get past the fact you think EV market share is the same as total market share. Haha. 71% market share. Doh! Do your homework

[techwhiz1]

Originally Posted by M3macster

I can’t get past the fact you think EV market share is the same as total market share. Haha. 71% market share. Doh! Do your homework

They also lost total market share.
Tesla stock has also lost 54% value as compared to the wider market.

Tesla is no longer being seen as a tech darling and more like a conventional car company as others catch up.

Tesla's PE is outrageous compared to other auto companies when last year it showed a valuation of more than the top 8 combined and now that's the top 5 in terms of sales and profitability.

Tesla is going to struggle as the under $50k market expands and they will also see competition at the top.

Elon's claims of FSD and L4 are hyperbolic and will never pan out. As investers see more that the emperor has no clothes it's going to further put pressure on the stock.

Keep watching.

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by techwhiz1

They also lost total market share.
Tesla stock has also lost 54% value as compared to the wider market.

Tesla is no longer being seen as a tech darling and more like a conventional car company as others catch up.

Tesla's PE is outrageous compared to other auto companies when last year it showed a valuation of more than the top 8 combined and now that's the top 5 in terms of sales and profitability.

Tesla is going to struggle as the under $50k market expands and they will also see competition at the top.

Elon's claims of FSD and L4 are hyperbolic and will never pan out. As investers see more that the emperor has no clothes it's going to further put pressure on the stock.

Keep watching.

All superfluous bullet points to my original point. Tesla will surpass BMW volume - I’d give it two years - and is taking share. Fact. No one else is growing at Tesla’s growth rate, and the global market isn’t growing faster. It’s basic math. Think of it this way. What is 1 million / 100 million in one year and 2 million / 110 million in the next year?

[techwhiz1]

Originally Posted by M3macster

All superfluous bullet points to my original point. Tesla will surpass BMW volume - I’d give it two years - and is taking share. Fact. No one else is growing at Tesla’s growth rate, and the global market isn’t growing faster. It’s basic math. Think of it this way. What is 1 million / 100 million in one year and 2 million / 110 million in the next year?

Okay I'll watch with my popcorn.

Tesla has competition it didn't have. It will have more competition moving forward.

The cyber truck will not surpass Rivian, GM and Ford which beat it to market by a year and some.

The luxury segment that Tesla thought it had with the Model S will disappear. The advantage that it thought it had with FSD was imaginary and frought with bad decisions by Musk.

Tesla is an overpriced and outdated platform that has failed to evolve.

1 in 10 Model S failed TÜV testing year before last.
Tesla won't grow any faster unless it fixes it's quality issues and service issues. It also needs to fix it's brazen disregard for regulation and honesty in what it markets as FSD.

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by techwhiz1

Okay I'll watch with my popcorn.

Tesla has competition it didn't have. It will have more competition moving forward.

The cyber truck will not surpass Rivian, GM and Ford which beat it to market by a year and some.

The luxury segment that Tesla thought it had with the Model S will disappear. The advantage that it thought it had with FSD was imaginary and frought with bad decisions by Musk.

Tesla is an overpriced and outdated platform that has failed to evolve.

1 in 10 Model S failed TÜV testing year before last.
Tesla won't grow any faster unless it fixes it's quality issues and service issues. It also needs to fix it's brazen disregard for regulation and honesty in what it markets as FSD.

Ok; but they aren’t as overpriced as they were last week. Ha.

The oversight you are making, in spite of several solid points of argument, is that Tesla is not playing an EV market share game. They’re playing - and have been playing - a sheer economy of scale and capacity and vertical integration game against an industry that is outdated and stagnant (in many cases).

BMW is one of the more innovative automakers, and I predict they will maintain their position in the market although profitability will be squeezed as they try to be all things to all people - multiple parallel product lines, complexity of drivetrains, etc.

Tesla has grown from 50k in sales volume five years ago to 1.3m in 2022, (+40% y/y) - and likely to continue to grow significantly in the near future. The model Y drove most of this growth. You say grow faster - everyone else is flat or within 5-10% growth on the upside or as much as 33% decline in the US market, for example (Honda). This kind of growth from Tesla is astronomical in such a long-standing industry. VW may have the best shot at the moment to fight back, along with BMW. Ford is doing somewhat well with their 1 EV, but GM and others seem to be floundering. The supply chain is too complex.

Anyway, Tesla has built the key ingredient - infrastructure. One that they own and operate. They are literally ten years ahead of everyone else and have built a model that will be difficult for Toyota (and Lexus) and Honda (and Acura) and Nissan (and Infiniti) and Ford and FCA and GM to compete with. Not just charging but also the profitability of their model with little sales costs, no dealerships to take profit cuts, no marketing costs, no complex product offering, the value being in their software not in a multitude of new features, etc.

The other thing is tesla is selling their software for massive $$$. BMW is trying to figure out how to do that, but failing miserably. No one wants to pay a recurring fee for heated seats or whatever. $16k for FSD means tesla can reduce the prices on their vehicles and make a killing on the software. Even if it doesn’t work!

So anyway you may be right. We’ll see. I was just pointing out their share growth.

[mlanes01]

Originally Posted by phantom701

If people forget, BMW had to jump into EVs because they were forced to do so by Tesla. There were simply too many sales being lost to Tesla especially from those who are 3-Series and 4-Series owners.

I do think if BMW fails to respond, they will stand to lose more sales, especially when Tesla's Giga Berlin begin to hit the same volume as Giga Shanghai.

I don't think that statement is correct. I think that for a long time people were looking at EV as the future however no one wanted to risk betting on the wrong tech or making the investment in the infrastructure (we are still hearing rumblings about hydrogen after all). I think waiting and watching for large auto manufacturers was a smart move. Tesla had and still has many challenges just learning how to be a car company and build / deliver cars. BMW is already far superior in so many ways, and to be honest if the i4 is a modular chassis shared with ice cars etc.... Then their dedicated platform should be even better and I can't see how Tesla matches them pound for pound in the luxury market. If Tesla could work their scale and vertical integration to get 80% of their vehicles in the 30-45k range (where quality wise is where they should have been all along) then it would be a whole other ball game and it would be Toyota and The big 3 that would be put on notice. I think VW group is really going to kick their butt first and BMW and merc will continue to do what they do best, make great luxury cars that are worthy of the badge on the hood.
At least that's the way I want to believe it will happen.

[Space Cadet]

I always saw the i3 and i8 as BMW testing the ground and gaining operational experience with electric vehicles. With that knowledge and experience they’re now going mainstream with the i4, i5, i7, iX3, i3 (China only) and IX and other models are going to follow over the next year or so. That experience will already be informing the choices around the dedicated BEVs built using the new modular system from 2025. Tesla have basically made the same thing for years with little change (unless I’m missing something?).

[phantom701]

Originally Posted by mlanes01

I don't think that statement is correct. I think that for a long time people were looking at EV as the future however no one wanted to risk betting on the wrong tech or making the investment in the infrastructure (we are still hearing rumblings about hydrogen after all). I think waiting and watching for large auto manufacturers was a smart move. Tesla had and still has many challenges just learning how to be a car company and build / deliver cars. BMW is already far superior in so many ways, and to be honest if the i4 is a modular chassis shared with ice cars etc.... Then their dedicated platform should be even better and I can't see how Tesla matches them pound for pound in the luxury market. If Tesla could work their scale and vertical integration to get 80% of their vehicles in the 30-45k range (where quality wise is where they should have been all along) then it would be a whole other ball game and it would be Toyota and The big 3 that would be put on notice. I think VW group is really going to kick their butt first and BMW and merc will continue to do what they do best, make great luxury cars that are worthy of the badge on the hood.
At least that's the way I want to believe it will happen.

Not sure which statement is incorrect...

In Europe, BMW, Mercedes allow you to build their cars as pedestrian or as luxurious as the consumers need in the lower range. Especially with 3-series, 4-series, and even 5-series to a small extend. This is why consumers who had previously looked at a cheaper config for BMW, Mercedes would move.

BMW wouldn't have moved into EVs if they didn't need to. The investment is very, very high!!

BMW actually had a leg up early on with the i3 but they just waited way too long.

I also hope BMW would get a dedicated EV platforms ready but many people who need to get a new car won't wait. I enjoy driving BMWs and there are so many great options that Teslas simply cannot touch. But that's not the most effective moat outside of us as BMW fanatics.

Ultimately, the numbers are the numbers.

[techwhiz1]

Originally Posted by phantom701

Not sure which statement is incorrect...

In Europe, BMW, Mercedes allow you to build their cars as pedestrian or as luxurious as the consumers need in the lower range. Especially with 3-series, 4-series, and even 5-series to a small extend. This is why consumers who had previously looked at a cheaper config for BMW, Mercedes would move.

BMW wouldn't have moved into EVs if they didn't need to. The investment is very, very high!!

BMW actually had a leg up early on with the i3 but they just waited way too long.

I also hope BMW would get a dedicated EV platforms ready but many people who need to get a new car won't wait. I enjoy driving BMWs and there are so many great options that Teslas simply cannot touch. But that's not the most effective moat outside of us as BMW fanatics.

Ultimately, the numbers are the numbers.

People shopping lower end 2/3/4 that are converts from Honda, Toyota, etc. Might be okay with a Tesla. You definitely have to seperate people that have owned multiple BMWs from those that have bought one entry level BMW.

People that order BMWs with leather and a few options are not likely to like the build of a Tesla.

I don't know if they waited too long. They waited until they could offer something that looked like and felt like a BMW.

They had to develop and test motors, source batteries and supplies for those batteries. There was development in the whole platform.

People keep talking about a dedicated platform like that means something. The iX is a bespoke platform and the R&D makes it expensive because you need to recover the cost of platform development and you don't benefit economies of scale.

People shopping for a car now don't care about what's coming five years from now. BMW has strong demand for EVs and as they fill out the model makeup with an i5 and further electrify their SUVs they will be fine.

Tesla has only now really become.price competitive and they lack in cabin driver experience. No HUD, no 360 cameras, no real cross traffic, etc.

So for all their technology, Tesla lags on in car driving experience.

[eddiehaug]

Just to spice up the conversation a bit, take a look at this DD by a regarded member over at WSB on Reddit, based on Tesla's latest SEC filling:

TL : DR: there are many risks and threats the management aknowledge and they do not guarantee enough liquidity to cover interest expenses and cash flow migh not be enough to cover operations. They are an automotive company with many competitors and hard competition. Threats to its brand value and perception. They migh not meet promisses or expectations. High chances of tech thief by the Chinese. They migh fail to meet their announced guidance.


Full DD: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...t=share_button

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by Space Cadet

Tesla have basically made the same thing for years with little change (unless I’m missing something?).

Tesla has not improved much over those same years though when other automakers are ramping up very quickly.

In short Tesla is a software company learning to build cars, and BMW is a car company catching up fast on software.

[Haywood]

Shady ass company...

https://electrek.co/2023/01/16/tesla...cover-hide-it/

[techwhiz1]

Originally Posted by Haywood

Shady ass company...

https://electrek.co/2023/01/16/tesla...cover-hide-it/

Not the first time they have done something like this.

If BMW, Ford, GM, etc did something like this there would be all kinds of investigation.

The regulators have been really easy on Tesla.

[awaitingbimmer]

I used to joke that the shiny coating on Tesla paint is snake oil. Maybe we can continue that joke.

[Haywood]

Some more shady shit...


https://stocks.apple.com/AbkkLhsQ6T8G2cF2xLE7-gQ

[jpuffmasterpuffpuffpuff69]

With the way Tesla's prices have dropped, and with them qualifying for US tax rebates, it'll be a tossup between the i4 and the M3 for my parents. I4 is nicer, clearly, but for a lot more money. I consider the M50 a value, but I might take an M3P over a base i4.