BMW i
Forum for the BMW i3, i4 and i8
BMW i3 BMW i8
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

  BMW i Forums > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board > Politics/Religion

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      02-20-2020, 03:56 PM   #441
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
How are you all figuring the mortality rate exactly? To me, it doesn't make sense to count the "confirmed" cases, because they have neither recovered or passed. It's one, or the other, very binary. Just because they're confirmed sick, doesn't mean they get factored into the mortality rate; they haven't passed away, nor have they recovered, therefore I'm not sure it should count.

I would think it would be closer to 13%. The total number of "results" in the cases, according the GIS site, would be a sample size of 19,012, with fatal cases being 2,130 and recovered being 16,882. The other 75,778 don't count, no? Doesn't make sense to me, unless I'm missing something.
I'm only counting deaths vs total infected. I don't remove the recovered from the denominator. That would give a different result. The problem with this, as XutvJet stated, is that murdering dictatorial regimes tend to hide data and under/over report data so that it fits their chosen narrative the best.

I tend to think the entire mess is under reported and the numbers are more likely 4 or 5 times those which we have been provided.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2020, 04:00 PM   #442
Conissah
Captain
Conissah's Avatar
886
Rep
793
Posts

Drives: 2020 BMW M2C
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Charlotte, NC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
I tend to think the entire mess is under reported and the numbers are more likely 4 or 5 times those which we have been provided.
Agree. There's no way with the extreme population density of China, that only 76k people have it. You don't prevent people from going to work (and the severe quarantining) if 0.0055% of your countries population have contracted Corona. Statistically, it makes no sense.
Appreciate 1
MKSixer20143.00

      02-20-2020, 04:00 PM   #443
UncleWede
Long Time Admirer, First Time Owner
UncleWede's Avatar
United_States
9069
Rep
8,039
Posts

Drives: E90 325i Arctic
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Oxnard, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
I tend to think the entire mess is under reported and the numbers are more likely 4 or 5 times those which we have been provided.
Deaths, infections, or everything? If one of the former, the mortality rate could go rapidly in either direction.

Lie, damned lies, and statistics.
Appreciate 2
MKSixer20143.00
vreihen161552.50

      02-20-2020, 04:04 PM   #444
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Conissah View Post
Agree. There's no way with the extreme population density of China, that only 76k people have it. You don't prevent people from going to work (and the severe quarantining) if 0.0055% of your countries population have contracted Corona. Statistically, it makes no sense.
Exactly. All of this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleWede View Post
Deaths, infections, or everything? If one of the former, the mortality rate could go rapidly in either direction.

Lie, damned lies, and statistics.
Yes. And the death rate is probably MUCH higher making this much more deadly than the standard flu.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 1
Conissah885.50

      02-20-2020, 05:30 PM   #445
adc100
Colonel
1716
Rep
2,036
Posts

Drives: 2018 Forester XT
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Elizabethtown PA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
Exactly. All of this.



Yes. And the death rate is probably MUCH higher making this much more deadly than the standard flu.
Cutting edge info..worth a watch:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6134394450001#sp=show-clips

These guys have a 4 or 5 year head start on Corona. Vaccine 1 to 2 years at best. The death rate is 1 to 2%. More infectious than flu. I do see a disaster in the making. But it is probably a good thing for the planet that is grosely overpopulated. And it will get rid of many old and sickly. Unfortunately financially it could be an unmitigated disaster.

Last edited by adc100; 02-20-2020 at 05:51 PM..
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2020, 05:37 PM   #446
gonzo
Lieutenant General
gonzo's Avatar
United_States
8184
Rep
13,594
Posts

Drives: as many as possible
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: TeXXXas

iTrader: (0)

Read version:

UT Austin announces coronavirus 'breakthrough' could help yield vaccine.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/ut-au...e-breakthrough
__________________
Crazy Diamond
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2020, 05:40 PM   #447
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by adc100 View Post
Cutting edge info..worth a watch:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6134394450001#sp=show-clips

These guys have a 4 or 5 year head start on Corona. Vaccine 1 to 2 years at best. The death rate is 1 to 2%. More infectious than flu. I do see a disaster in the making. But it is probably a good thing for the pllenet that is grosely overpopulated. And it will get rid of many old and sickly. Unfortunately financially it could be an unmitigated disaster.
I agree with much of what you say except the parts about the over population of the planet, the old, and the sickly.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 0
      02-20-2020, 06:08 PM   #448
adc100
Colonel
1716
Rep
2,036
Posts

Drives: 2018 Forester XT
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Elizabethtown PA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
I agree with much of what you say except the parts about the over population of the planet, the old, and the sickly.
Old but relevant:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/w...ims-wuhan.html
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 07:25 AM   #449
VisualEcho
Captain
VisualEcho's Avatar
United_States
977
Rep
760
Posts

Drives: 2018 BMW M2
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Missouri

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 BMW M2  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by adc100 View Post
I do see a disaster in the making. But it is probably a good thing for the planet that is grosely overpopulated. And it will get rid of many old and sickly.
Wow, you really just said that.

Maybe you'll be one of them, which would help the planet even more.
__________________
2006 Lotus Exige | 2018 M2
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 07:38 AM   #450
JP10
Captain
JP10's Avatar
656
Rep
636
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Charleston, SC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by VisualEcho View Post
Wow, you really just said that.

Maybe you'll be one of them, which would help the planet even more.
I think he may have said that because of his age. Excuse me if I am wrong, but I believe adc is 60-70? I thought I had read that a while back. Those of a younger generation most likely feel more compassion towards the eldery due to relations with parents/grandparents. I can understand his point to an extent because he also is pretty into the global warming topics. Hence a reduction in population will lead to less consumables. I wouldn't be as blunt to say it, nor do I support it, but I understand what he's saying.
Appreciate 1
MKSixer20143.00

      02-21-2020, 09:42 AM   #451
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by JP10 View Post
I think he may have said that because of his age. Excuse me if I am wrong, but I believe adc is 60-70? I thought I had read that a while back. Those of a younger generation most likely feel more compassion towards the eldery due to relations with parents/grandparents. I can understand his point to an extent because he also is pretty into the global warming topics. Hence a reduction in population will lead to less consumables. I wouldn't be as blunt to say it, nor do I support it, but I understand what he's saying.
I understand what he is saying, as well. He is, however, a believer in the false narrative that the planet is overpopulated and a few others. These are outright lies. Math says so.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 1
JP10655.50

      02-21-2020, 09:56 AM   #452
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Update. Mortality rate approaching 3 percent, per these metrics. I suspect it's much higher.
Attached Images
 
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 10:12 AM   #453
JP10
Captain
JP10's Avatar
656
Rep
636
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Charleston, SC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
Update. Mortality rate approaching 3 percent, per these metrics. I suspect it's much higher.
I assume there would be two spectrums of thought.

1) Cases are under reported and deaths are accurate to an extent. This would mean less then the 3%.

2) Both cases and deaths are under reported. Mortality rate would vary based on relative growth of each aspect.

Too many unknowns unfortunately.
Appreciate 1
MKSixer20143.00

      02-21-2020, 10:16 AM   #454
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by JP10 View Post
I assume there would be two spectrums of thought.

1) Cases are under reported and deaths are accurate to an extent. This would mean less then the 3%.

2) Both cases and deaths are under reported. Mortality rate would vary based on relative growth of each aspect.

Too many unknowns unfortunately.
Exactly. The moment we depart from the acceptance of the "official" data, we descend into the land of Fuqall. And since we are here I rather think that we are being trolled by the PRC and the data is understated by 3 to 5 fold. This is much worse than we are led to believe.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 1
NickyC5813.50

      02-21-2020, 10:33 AM   #455
Captain Blood
Pirate and thief, avast
Captain Blood's Avatar
United_States
9542
Rep
12,497
Posts

Drives: 135i DCT
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Tortuga

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2012 135  [5.00]
Japanese data on cruise ship coronavirus infections backs quarantine strategy https://reut.rs/2uShjNb
__________________
My best amp goes up to 11........
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 10:37 AM   #456
NickyC
Major General
NickyC's Avatar
5814
Rep
6,066
Posts

Drives: YMB M4, has a roof though. :(
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Now in Miami! :D

iTrader: (17)

I think the next 3-4 weeks is going to tell us what we’re up against. Now that the virus has spread to countries which don’t have a tyrannical stranglehold on their people and the information which comes out of it like China, we’re going to learn a lot more. What will also be interesting to see is the infection rate in these countries considering they likely won’t have the ability to completely lockdown their populace such as in China.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 10:41 AM   #457
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Blood View Post
Japanese data on cruise ship coronavirus infections backs quarantine strategy https://reut.rs/2uShjNb
Not really.
Key word: Appears.
Closing sentences say the rest.

The health ministry will provide assistance to those returning passengers, as there is still a risk they could develop symptoms, said Koji Wada, a professor at the International University of Health and Welfare in Tokyo.

We can say the quarantine has been done as we planned, said Wada, who has worked as an advisor on site at the Diamond Princess. Im not sure if I can say its a success.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 10:44 AM   #458
JP10
Captain
JP10's Avatar
656
Rep
636
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Charleston, SC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
Exactly. The moment we depart from the acceptance of the "official" data, we descend into the land of Fuqall. And since we are here I rather think that we are being trolled by the PRC and the data is understated by 3 to 5 fold. This is much worse than we are led to believe.
Agree, I can barely talk about it at home as my fiance is scared to death of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
I think the next 3-4 weeks is going to tell us what were up against. Now that the virus has spread to countries which dont have a tyrannical stranglehold on their people and the information which comes out of it like China, were going to learn a lot more. What will also be interesting to see is the infection rate in these countries considering they likely wont have the ability to completely lockdown their populace such as in China.

I'm interested in what they will report as well. I read that a man in Italy returned from China with coronavirus and had contact with 140 people. All of those people are currently in quarantine. Interested to see how many people contract it from the contact.
Appreciate 1
MKSixer20143.00

      02-21-2020, 10:49 AM   #459
MKSixer
Major General
MKSixer's Avatar
20143
Rep
8,933
Posts

Drives: 2015 BMW i8, E63 M6, 328d
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Southeast United States

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2016 M4 GTS (Allotted)  [0.00]
2013 BMW 328d  [0.00]
2007 BMW M6  [5.00]
2015 BMW i8  [5.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by JP10 View Post
Agree, I can barely talk about it at home as my fiance is scared to death of it.




I'm interested in what they will report as well. I read that a man in Italy returned from China with coronavirus and had contact with 140 people. All of those people are currently in quarantine. Interested to see how many people contract it from the contact.
If done properly this could be a bellwether chance to get accurate data on the virus and its virulence. I will be watching this closely, as well. Best of fortune to those whom he has been in contact with.
__________________
Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

Lewi6, First of His Name, Destroyer of Careers, Master of Pole Positions, 6X WDC, Master of All Tracks, Scorer of Maximum Points, Whisperer of Tires, Minimizer of Fuel Utilization, Maximizer of Consistency in Finishing. Look Upon Him With DRED.
Appreciate 1
JP10655.50

      02-21-2020, 11:13 AM   #460
thegump
Private
32
Rep
63
Posts

Drives: E90 M3 - Sold
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Alabama

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bd307 View Post
Bring bacteria killing wipes to wipe everything in the room and don't ask room service to come back. Ask for a portable air filter machine (not sure if hotels in Korea offer in) when checking in and call to room service if front desk says no just to make sure.

Bring hand sanitize with you anywhere you go and use it often.

It is not end of the day virus and you can prevent it with proper prep.

Enjoy your time in Korea.
Trip is next month.. This info still relevant or am I f'd? lol I'll be going to Seoul and Ulsan, possibly Busan. I'm not all that worried of getting it, but more worried of being forced into quarantine somewhere because I sneezed or had a cold..

Company is now leaving the decision to go up to me (I'll take no accountability for $200 )

Was planning on meeting the wife and several friends in Bali afterwards adding even more variables.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 11:40 AM   #461
JP10
Captain
JP10's Avatar
656
Rep
636
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Charleston, SC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
If done properly this could be a bellwether chance to get accurate data on the virus and its virulence. I will be watching this closely, as well. Best of fortune to those whom he has been in contact with.
We are on the same page. WHO ranks Italy among the best, so hopefully we get some viable information for once.
Appreciate 0
      02-21-2020, 11:46 AM   #462
JP10
Captain
JP10's Avatar
656
Rep
636
Posts

Drives: M3
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Charleston, SC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by thegump View Post
Trip is next month.. This info still relevant or am I f'd? lol I'll be going to Seoul and Ulsan, possibly Busan. I'm not all that worried of getting it, but more worried of being forced into quarantine somewhere because I sneezed or had a cold..

Company is now leaving the decision to go up to me (I'll take no accountability for $200 )

Was planning on meeting the wife and several friends in Bali afterwards adding even more variables.
With South Korea's recent rise in infected numbers I would be wary about that trip. Make sure you are aware of any travel restrictions pertaining to the countries prior. Good luck.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:24 PM.




bmw
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST