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      01-26-2021, 08:33 AM   #243
David70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
No, i don't work in software or for a tech company or anyone really.

As to my posts, yes I'm totally aware of their utter uselessness to 99.99% of people - i'm not in it for the audience or applause, just for fun ... and, if just 1 person gets an insight then Nobody reads my finished crosswords either I'm not happy about it, but there it is.

Anyway, the problem isn't that you disagree with me - I'm just the messenger - it's that you disagree with literally everyone in the automotive industry, tech industry, and retail industry who runs their enterprises. Just ask them. Or better: watch what they do!

For example, watch the boards of the German automakers - they're trying to hatch secret schemes to collaborate on their big problem: software. As was already pointed out, the CEO of VW said his company's problem is software. As in, he literally just said that in Nov.

These are things that are actually happening, not opinions. A watch-what-people-do kind of thing.


Back to Tesla, we've only discussed autos and, to be forthcoming, that's not really Tesla's core business - it's just the thing that's paying for their software build just like CDs & book sales paid for Amazon's logistics software build (and whitelabeling for clients like TGT paid for their consumer-facing site), DVD rentals paid for Netflix's software build, search ads paid for Google's software build, et al.


Tesla's real business is energy management software, and here's what's going to happen:

Over the next 2-3 years it's going to start dawning on people that TRILLIONS are locked up in regulated energy generation and if we unbundle energy production by deregulating generation (via solar, electric, *batteries*, etc) AND have the consumer software to manage it all locally... well ... Tesla's stock is going to go a lot higher.

So this really isn't about cars at all - it's about energy management software.
Thanks for the reply.
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      01-26-2021, 05:33 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by David70 View Post
Thanks for the reply.
Sure, always fun to challenge our normal ways of thinking!

BTW, in case you missed it, Blackberry, Amazon and BMW are partnering for BEV software:




Tesla hasn't announced any software partnerships with the Germans, or any tech companies, or anyone
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He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
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      01-26-2021, 07:52 PM   #245
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More Government subsidies for Tesla and BMW
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He tries to draw people into inane arguments, some weird pastime of his.
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      01-26-2021, 08:38 PM   #246
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I'm getting ready to order a Macan and I continue to be amazed at how niche Porsches are relative to Tesla - here are their 2020 numbers from their respective sites:

Porsche 2020 Deliveries:


Tesla 2020 Deliveries:


If you combine Cayenne and Macan sales and compare to Model S/X sales, Tesla is delivering almost 2x more vehicles!

And, let's face it, those Teslas are 10 year old models. Surprising.
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      01-26-2021, 10:45 PM   #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Tesla can’t be compared to any company in terms of how overvalued it is relative to fundamentals.
Speaking of fundamentals ....

Fun Wall Street Action:
For those not financially nerdy, a bunch of hedge fund guys decided that Gamestop was gonna go bankrupt because people buy video games online not on disc at stores like Gamestop; so, based on fundamentals, the hedge fund guys shorted Gamestop (i.e., borrowed a bunch of shares and sold them).

Well, the r/wsb decided that was a pile of shit so they piled into Gamestop incl using leverage & call options - the buy volume got so huge gamestop trading was stopped 9 times during the day and at least 1 of the hedge funds has needed a bailout in the billions (shorts have an unlimited downside unlike owning a stock).

Anyhoo, I think it's going to be awhile before "fundamentals" investing works.

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      01-27-2021, 07:19 AM   #248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
I'm getting ready to order a Macan and I continue to be amazed at how niche Porsches are relative to Tesla - here are their 2020 numbers from their respective sites:

Porsche 2020 Deliveries:


Tesla 2020 Deliveries:


If you combine Cayenne and Macan sales and compare to Model S/X sales, Tesla is delivering almost 2x more vehicles!

And, let's face it, those Teslas are 10 year old models. Surprising.
Aren't you comparing Porsche U.S. sales to Tesla worldwide sales?
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      01-27-2021, 11:43 AM   #249
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Today's 1st world problem:

It's raining like a cow pissing on a flat rock.
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      01-27-2021, 12:15 PM   #250
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Porsche's 2020 worldwide sales totals.

Quote:
Considering everything, Porsche's worldwide deliveries were solid with a total of 272,162 new vehicles
from here: https://carbuzz.com/news/porsches-20...re-outstanding

Tesla's 2020 worldwide sales total: 509,737, as shown above.

So, about double overall.
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      01-27-2021, 02:14 PM   #251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Speaking of fundamentals ....

Fun Wall Street Action:
For those not financially nerdy, a bunch of hedge fund guys decided that Gamestop was gonna go bankrupt because people buy video games online not on disc at stores like Gamestop; so, based on fundamentals, the hedge fund guys shorted Gamestop (i.e., borrowed a bunch of shares and sold them).

Well, the r/wsb decided that was a pile of shit so they piled into Gamestop incl using leverage & call options - the buy volume got so huge gamestop trading was stopped 9 times during the day and at least 1 of the hedge funds has needed a bailout in the billions (shorts have an unlimited downside unlike owning a stock).

Anyhoo, I think it's going to be awhile before "fundamentals" investing works.

😂 This is your evidence against fundamentals?

Stuff like this is going to happen. And it’s going to end badly for many, most of them on main street. And Melvin too. It is also rumored another hedge fund is on the long side, meaning it’s not just retail investors driving this.

If you want to make a career out of trades like this, best of luck.
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      01-27-2021, 02:16 PM   #252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fly320s View Post
Porsche's 2020 worldwide sales totals.



from here: https://carbuzz.com/news/porsches-20...re-outstanding

Tesla's 2020 worldwide sales total: 509,737, as shown above.

So, about double overall.
So what? Now do Ford’s total sales. Tesla still hasn’t shown it can make money on selling cars...Frankly, all car manufacturers have financial problems. It’s a tough, competitive, and capital intensive business.

The small profit Tesla has made has come from selling energy credits, which will roll off soon too.

Elon Musk is a genius, and I’d never bet against him. The stock though, highly questionable.
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      01-27-2021, 02:32 PM   #253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
So what?
So nothing.

David70 asked if GrussGott was comparing worldwide sales of Tesla with US sales of Porsche. I provided the correct comparison sales numbers.
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      01-27-2021, 03:09 PM   #254
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Tesla is overhyped and overvalued. That's exactly why there is a ton of money that has been conjured up.
The car is a physical product to justify that it is reality.
I see a ton more kia eneros on the streets now previously it was model 3.
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      01-27-2021, 05:08 PM   #255
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
So what? Now do Ford’s total sales. Tesla still hasn’t shown it can make money on selling cars...
It's fine to be a Tesla doubter, there are SO many great reasons; so why just blatantly lie?

Here I'll give you a start: Despite a decade of experience, Tesla still can't screw together a car.
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      01-27-2021, 05:11 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
�� This is your evidence against fundamentals?
Yup.

Until there are new laws or some kind of giant crash the market is crazy town - great if you're a gambler (a trader), but serious investors who wanna stock pick and beat indexes over time are gonna have trouble.

It's why legit value funds are closing up shop - the stock market is going through a great turning where making money as a pure value investor (fundamentals) is tough - growth is where it's at nowadays.

Oh, BTW, Blockbuster's back!
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      01-27-2021, 05:32 PM   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Sure, always fun to challenge our normal ways of thinking!

BTW, in case you missed it, Blackberry, Amazon and BMW are partnering for BEV software:




Tesla hasn't announced any software partnerships with the Germans, or any tech companies, or anyone
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Elon use BB's stuff in Starlink? I swear the second he takes SpaceX public I'm all in.

As for Tesla, GG has the right idea imo - it's not "just a car company", it's several companies under one roof.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocent...h=4de1bd2d795f

It's battery tech, factory tech, software, infrastructure, cars, and innovative talent that's being bet on...not just the cars.
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      01-27-2021, 05:39 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
Tesla is overhyped and overvalued. That's exactly why there is a ton of money that has been conjured up.
The car is a physical product to justify that it is reality.
100% - Tesla is an energy stock; it's a decarbonization & electrification play. A growth bet on energy deregulation and local-level electricity generation and storage.

• If Tesla were only solar panels & power walls, it'd be single digits ...
• If Tesla were only Megapacks, also single digits ...
• If Tesla were only semi-trucks, maybe a penny stock ...

The fact that Tesla has proven it can profitably make consumer energy products (cars) on multiple continents AND has other arms in energy storage and management is what makes it a growth bet; albeit overhyped and overvalued (based on fundamentals)


Everyone (in the US at least) has heard of the Goodyear Blimp - people forget where that came from: the multi-decade platform war for air travel. There was a legit few decades where blimps fought it out with airplanes. Ultimately they lost of course and nobody even remembers those 30 years!

United, Martin, Sikorsky, Douglas, Pratt ... those were all, at one time, overhyped and overvalued growth companies with very uncertain futures ... just like Tesla.

But also great investments in retrospect!

This Sikorsky S-40 (via Juan Trippe's PanAm, ~1931-1940) took on Zeppelins to conquer air travel in South America


Goodyear Blimp by the Graf Zeppelin (~1928-1937)


This isn't the first time the Americans and Germans have competed over transportation platforms ...
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      01-27-2021, 07:26 PM   #259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
This isn't the first time the Americans and Germans have competed over transportation platforms ...
Ya know, it's fascinating to consider that, 100 years after the US & Germany (PanAm & Zeppelin) fought a transportation platform battle, here were are again, and with one of those legacy players!

Zeppelins would never have flown if it weren't for Project Phoenix: Maybach's invention of the multi-cylinder ICE ... and Daimler funded it! (even more ironic is that Maybach's multi-cylinder ICE replaced battery-electric engines!)

It's funny how 100 years doesn't sound like much, but then Charles Lindbergh and Hugo Eckener were the most famous aviators in the World - nowadays everyone still knows Lindbergh (MSP=Lindbergh Terminal), but hardly anyone knows Hugo Eckener.

Eckener used to tour America in ticker tape parades



and meet with US Presidents



but he lost the aviation platform war so even 50 years later nobody knew who he was ...

...and most people only know the Zeppelin name from Led Zeppelin
In August 1968 Page invited Robert Plant and John Bonham to join his band, the New Yardbirds, for a September tour in Scandinavia. In October 1968 they took the name Led Zeppelin, which stemmed from a humorous conversation among several musicians about their chances of going down like a lead balloon
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      01-27-2021, 07:59 PM   #260
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Much like BMW, if anything is gonna kill Tesla it's gonna be design - new Model S/X interior:



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      01-27-2021, 08:01 PM   #261
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That guy tries way too hard to be some future space alien... but whatever.
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      01-27-2021, 08:35 PM   #262
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We ordered a model X a couple weeks ago to replace our current one. I guess we will be getting this new version, not sure about my wife and this steering wheel though.
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      01-27-2021, 08:40 PM   #263
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Steering wheel is pretty much the only part I don't like, I think everything else was done nicely and will sell like hotcakes. Particularly due to the performance - 500+ mile range and still 0-60 in < 2 seconds is nuts. $1200c for anything in February will probably print.
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      01-27-2021, 11:28 PM   #264
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I just can't stand those cheap, bare and plain looking interiors.
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