[ES_TRADER]

So basically every news channel and business news network, whatever, has economists and specialists going on TV or writing about how the US is still in recession or going to have another one...The point is, ive read alot about it and hear ALOT about it....HOWEVER, there is a huge disconnect between what i hear/read and what i witness first hand out in public.

For example, Cali is one of the largest unemployed states (supposedly) in the US...yet every morning and afternoon, the freeways are all packed with cars...traffic jams everywhere...where are all these people going at 6am if theyre unemployed??

In the traffic jams, i see new cars everywhere...

On the weekends, theres traffic, people are going out, shopping, traveling...whatever, but the freeways are packed on saturdays...

I went dining out on a Wednesday night..the wife and i went to Ruths...PACKED...on a Wednesday?? i can only imagine what the crowd would look like on a weekend...

went to the mall last night to return something...couldnt find parking for half an hour...i mean if we are in a recession, why would the malls be packed on a worknight?

We went to Vegas last week...OMG you couldn't even walk on the street at night...you would of thought it was New Years eve...all the casinos were crowded, there was NO PARKING..and crazy traffic..took me 1hr to drive from MGM to the WYNN, thats like 1.5 miles..WTF...i mean REALLY ARE WE SERIOUSLY in a recession??

I see recession as people having little or no money because of no work...streets would not be congested, gas prices declining, no waiting at restaurants.shops and malls empty....everywhere i go, i see people spending money, having a good time..etc...which is great...but what i hear on TV, it seems like the US is just in a very dire situation...is it just CA thats NOT in a recession and everywhere else is??

discuss...

[dth656]

i think it depends on where you are. in silicon valley, though there have been layoffs, there is quite a bit of startup, VC and PE activity that has kept things fairly busy. i have friends who have recently visited the midwest, and they tell me that you'll see entire housing developments abandoned, and other glaring evidence of difficult economic times.

i think once greece defaults, and then ireland, portugal, spain and i italy, it will have severe, negative repercussions for the us economy as well.

[Oregano123]

you're an idiot. that is all.

[BMCoupe_782]

lol

[ES_TRADER]

yes....because i hate traffic, i hate crowds, and i hate having the hostess tell me its going to be 1hr before i can get seated for dinner and it annoys the shit out of me when i cant find decent parking for my bimmer when we are supposed to be in a major recession and everyone is supposed to be broke sitting at home looking for jobs..its just annoying to hear this recession talk all over the world and NOT see it firsthand....its like these people go on TV and just make shit up

[schoy]

I could cite 2 reasons off the top of my head:

1) People spending money that they shouldn't be spending (not uncommon -- spending is a catharsis for many).

2) The rich/wealthy/financially-stable people are coming out to play since they are less affected by economic downturn.

I'm sure people could come up with more reasons to correlate your experience vs. economic indicators.

Edit: some more I've thought of:
3) Recession is a reflection of economic growth (or lack of it), not personal cash flow;

4) More pointedly, while a recession may affect people's investment portfolios, those losses are just paper losses, and doesn't have an immediate impact on cash flow.

5) While unemployment affects cash flow, I suspect that a major reason for the "high" unemployment rate isn't because of layoffs, but because of lack of relevant job openings (which affect those with little relevant job experience, e.g. college grads). Basically, population growth is outpacing the number of job openings.

[chungdae]

Originally Posted by Oregano123

you're an idiot. that is all.

+1

[BTM]

Recession is defined a contraction in GDP and is most often practically applied to mean two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. According to the BEA, we are not currently in a recession, as GDP has shown positive growth between 0 and 4% for the last 2 years. The annualized growth rate of real GDP between 1790 to 2010 is 3.74%. Using the industrial age, estimating the IR to have started in 1850, annualized growth in real GDP is 3.55%.



http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...gdp_glance.htm
http://www.measuringworth.com/growth...%5B%5D=REALGDP

[mact3333]

people with jobs-no recession

people w/out jobs-recession

simple as that.

Stated unemployment rate is 9.1%...but if you count it the way we use to its close to 20%...so 1/5 are either not working or are under-employed...this 20% you will not see at Ruth Cris throwing back a porterhouse...these are not the people in Vegas getting 20.00 lap dances...these people stay in their small home where they havent made a mortgage payment for 1 yr or more shopping at Walmart and WinCo to put shitty food on the table.

They are out there...we should count our blessings if we are not one of them...but dont trivialize their situation cause they are struggling to feed their children.

So if there isnt a recession for you, feel lucky and try to help others who arent so fortunate...life isnt really about BMW's...me personally, I try to keep things in perspective now...I have a BMW that sits in my garage but dont really feel the need to drive it...I am happy in my Jetta TDI that gets 40mpg.

If you have children and they are healthy, you should be jumping up and down for joy.

[BTM]

The way unemployment is calculated has not changed. U3 has always been the official unemployment rate. U4-U6 were previously estimated but not included in the definition of unemployment and thus not considered in the calculation of the unemployment rate.

[V1.47fan]

Originally Posted by richpuer

yes....because i hate traffic, i hate crowds, and i hate having the hostess tell me its going to be 1hr before i can get seated for dinner and it annoys the shit out of me when i cant find decent parking for my bimmer when we are supposed to be in a major recession and everyone is supposed to be broke sitting at home looking for jobs..its just annoying to hear this recession talk all over the world and NOT see it firsthand....its like these people go on TV and just make shit up

It's a recession,okay...not the great depression.

[KingOfJericho]

Originally Posted by Oregano123

you're an idiot. that is all.

This.

You're confusing "recession" with "zombie attack"

[KingOfJericho]

Recession is two consecutive down quarters in GDP and has absolutely nothing to do with employment. As for the connection to traffic and restaurant waits, the 30yr average unemployment rate is 6.3%. We're currently at 9.1%. This still leaves 97% of the average working population with jobs. You would not notice a 3% reduction in the workforce in your daily commute or restaurant experience the same way that you wouldn't be able to tell if I threw 100 marbles at you or 97.

[E90SoFlo]

Originally Posted by KingOfJericho

This.

You're confusing "recession" with "zombie attack"

lol Thats going to happen too

[V1.47fan]

Originally Posted by KingOfJericho

This.

You're confusing "recession" with "zombie attack"

Hahahaha, funny.

[Forcefed3]

lulz

[Turkeybaster115]

Originally Posted by Oregano123

you're an idiot. that is all.

+1! well said!

[Kiemyster]

Originally Posted by Oregano123

you're an idiot. that is all.

this. technically we are temporarily and very slowly recovering, but I think its safe to say that shit could hit the fan again. despite whatever is to come, it is safe to say that our current "recovery" is not fast enough.

i feel bad for the people who went in hard on this thread. that is all

[texasmojo]

It sure dont feel like a recession. Ive been working 72 hours a week for the last 10 months. Stop buying coke products.

[my nuts on your face]

Originally Posted by texasmojo

It sure dont feel like a recession. Ive been working 72 hours a week for the last 10 months. Stop buying coke products.

No, I am not...

[V1.47fan]

Maybe the OP watches too much Fox news,it's Doom and Gloom 24/7 and it's all Obama's fault,especially Fox and friends in the morning,Hannety...yep they're fair and balanced.
Then when He goes out,He realises it's not so bad,I kinda understand that part.
I watch Fox news too, Mollie Line, Meghan Kelly...hot, try watchin CNN very depressing.