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      01-18-2019, 09:00 AM   #1233
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So they recently released the number of EV's in Canada. 5 years ago the government stated that by the end of 2018 there would be 500,000 EV's in Canada. The actual number is about 100,000.

They have started removing the charging stations from the Public Transit parking lots and many private companies are now removing them due to lack of use.
What effect did Ford's cancellation of the electric car rebate have on sales of EVs in Ontario?
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      01-18-2019, 12:07 PM   #1234
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Thanks to Uber and Tesla, most of us no longer want fully autonomous automobiles

https://driving.ca/volvo/auto-news/n...gh-of-progress

I just got back from the two most important auto shows of the season. Kicking off the year in frigid January, the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas and the North American International Auto Show in Detroit pretty much bookend where the auto industry has been, and more importantly, where it is going. One is ascendant, the other seemingly on its last legs. One debuts flying taxis, the other supercharged relics of pony cars past. One, it really can’t be overstated, represents the future of the auto industry; the other, unfortunately, its past. And I don’t think I have to tell you which is which.

There is one thing, however, both shows — or at least, the exhibitors at both shows — can agree on: There’s going to be a pause in our headlong rush into self-driving cars. Oh, we’re going to bump up the typical car’s autonomy — which, as I will explain in a minute, is not the same thing as self-driving — and there were plenty of cars running around without steering wheels, especially in Vegas. But, except for those Silicon Valley startups that literally have nothing to lose, the entire industry realizes it got ahead of itself in promising fully autonomous automobiles in the next few years.

Waymo-nee-Google, of course, upset the whole apple cart back in 2012 when it announced it would transition from human-driven cars to the full robot in one step, quite literally jumping from what the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in the U.S. labels Level 0 (absolutely no driver’s aids) to Level 5 (no driver ever needed; you can have sex in the back seat for all Google cares) in one fell swoop. With sensationalism all but owning media coverage these days, automakers — whose engineers are trained almost from birth to adhere to the “go-slow” school of revolutionary advancements — were forced to abandon their traditional step-by-step incrementalism in order to keep up.

Ever since, automakers have fallen all over themselves, into a game of one-upmanship quickly developing as normally conservative industry leaders promised “self-driving” cars on ever-tighter time spans. (And let’s remember that, for the average consumer, autonomous means completely self-driving, not some partial version thereof.) Ford, Volvo, GM and others, not to mention various Silicon Valley interlopers, kept upping the ante until the public — again, prodded by the media — started expecting that we’d all be being chauffeured around in little steering wheel-less bots by 2020; 2021 at the latest.

Well, not that that was ever a reality, but the industry as a whole has almost completely backed away from this prediction, adopting a much more “humble attitude” says The Information. Automakers previously trumpeting their self-driving programs have suddenly gone radio silent. High-tech firms delving into the mobility business for the first time — AEV, Udelv and Nuro — are now focusing on the autonomous transport of goods rather than people. Even Waymo is rolling back its much-trumpeted autonomous taxi service. “A couple years ago, everyone was like, ‘we’ll be done [developing self-driving cars] in three, four, five years,’” Heiko Kraft, director of analysis and testing for Mercedes-Benz self-driving car research, told author Cory Weinburg. “Everyone was promising a lot.”

There’s a simple reason for this back-pedalling. Actually, two: Tesla and Uber. Or more specifically, the two fatalities — Joshua Brown in a Model S and pedestrian Elaine Herzberg by a Volvo — involving Tesla and Uber’s robotic drivers. Though both companies have tried to downplay the significance of these accidents — Tesla by denying responsibility; Uber by simply stopping testing in Arizona — the consequences have been far-reaching, especially in the court of public opinion.

Indeed, a recent study by Cox Automotive reveals the depths to which the promise of self-driving has dropped in the public’s perception. According to Karl Brauer, executive publisher of Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, while awareness of fully autonomous automobiles has increased by more than 50 per cent in the last two years, trust in Level 5 self-driving has dropped some 40 per cent.

The raw numbers are even more startling — while two-thirds of Americans now count themselves as familiar with self-driving technology, barely a quarter actually trust it, an incredible reversal from the 47 per cent who said they completely trusted autonomous automobiles just two years ago.

According to Brauer, the blame for the dramatic levels of distrust can be attributed directly to those two high-profile accidents, 61 per cent of respondents claiming knowledge of the Uber accident alone. So traumatized are they by the fatalities attributed to automotive autonomy that, while previous studies indicated that those in favour of self-driving wanted Level 4 and 5 abilities — full control ceded to the machine — the new Cox study shows now more skeptical consumers would prefer that automakers limit themselves to Level 2.

It marks a dramatic shift in our desire for automated driving. Nearly half of us would never buy a Level 5 autonomous vehicle (an increase of more than 50 per cent from just two years ago), fewer of us believe our roads would be safer if all cars were fully autonomous and, perhaps most telling of all, twice as many of us “would feel [more] uncomfortable riding in a vehicle fully driven by a computer … than in a vehicle driven by a complete stranger.”

Three short years ago, the lure of autonomy was the total, no-steering-wheels-needed autonomy promised by Waymo. In the wake of those devastating accidents, what we now want is the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems — adaptive cruise control, lane departure assist, et al — currently available on most luxury cars and, increasingly, even little econoboxes. (Ninety-five per cent of Toyotas sold in Canada, including base-model Corollas, are equipped with the company’s Safety Sense semi-autonomous driver’s aids.)

In other words, what we want is the exact level of automated driving we have now. We have had, if Cox’s research is to be believed, quite enough of progress.
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      01-18-2019, 12:08 PM   #1235
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Originally Posted by MrRoboto View Post
What effect did Ford's cancellation of the electric car rebate have on sales of EVs in Ontario?
It slowed it down drastically, however the rebate was only suspended about 7 months ago. The reality is sales were no where near what governments have predicted in Canada for the past 5 years.
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      01-18-2019, 12:15 PM   #1236
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Tesla to cut thousands of jobs as Elon Musk warns the ‘road ahead is very difficult’

'While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people'

https://business.financialpost.com/t...-shares-tumble

Tesla Inc. will cut its full-time employee headcount by 7 per cent, with Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk saying the “road ahead is very difficult” to make electric cars affordable for the mass market.

The shares fell 7.6 per cent in pre-market trading after the Palo Alto, California-based company said it managed to eke out a profit in the fourth quarter — though a narrower one than the hard-won third-quarter profit it reported in October, according to a blog post on Friday.

We need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles

Tesla is under pressure to limit spending as it emerges from what Musk called the “most challenging” year in its history.

While it succeeded in scaling up output of its Model 3, the company missed analysts’ production targets during the fourth quarter, and it’s had to cut prices to make up for the halving of a U.S. federal tax credit that’s helped spur sales. The credit is set to drop again in July before going away entirely at the end of the year.

The company has cushioned its production challenges by initially selling only the highest-priced versions of the Model 3, its first vehicle billed as a car for the masses. In the next few months, as production increases, the company will need to sell lower-cost configurations, Musk said on the blog post. Up until now, the cheapest Model 3, whose base price is US$35,000, has cost US$44,000, he said.

GM’s Cadillac will introduce EV in fight against Tesla: sources
Oracle’s Larry Ellison reveals $1-billion stake in Tesla
Elon Musk isn’t keen on investors dragging girlfriend Grimes into lawsuit over $420 tweet

“Starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles,” Musk said. “Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3.”

Tesla had about 45,000 workers in 2018, so the 7 per cent cut works out to about 3,150 jobs lost.

TESLA FIGHTERS

The company will also see a significant increase in competition for electric cars as traditional manufacturers have started to roll out an array of products that will be measured against its pioneering lineup. Shortly after Daimler AG’s EQC electric crossover, Audi last year unveiled the E-Tron. Its parent, Volkswagen AG, plans to introduce more than 50 purely battery-powered vehicles through 2025 across the group.

Tesla shares dropped to US$321 in early U.S. trading. The stock is little changed in the past year — though it gyrated dramatically during 2018 as Musk careened from crisis to crisis: warring with analysts over Tesla’s cash needs; smoking weed in an interview and losing his chairman’s role in an SEC settlement over his tweeted buyout offer that never materialized, all while working furiously to ramp up production of the Model 3.

Tesla’s overarching challenge is making cars, batteries and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels, Musk said Friday in the blog post.

“While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people,” Musk said. “Sorry for all these numbers, but I want to make sure that you know all the facts and figures and understand that the road ahead is very difficult.”

Incumbent carmakers are also struggling with the high cost of making electric cars. On top of record investment in new electric-car lineups, high battery costs are crimping margins and buyers worried about charging and driving range largely remain on the fence.

Tesla’s layoffs mark the second shedding of workers in a matter of months. In June, Tesla dismissed 9 per cent of its workforce, after misjudging how quickly it could ramp up mass-manufacture of the Model 3 — only to go on an aggressive hiring spree shortly after.

Bloomberg.com
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      01-18-2019, 12:32 PM   #1237
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Originally Posted by Grumpy Old Man View Post
'While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people'

https://business.financialpost.com/t...-shares-tumble

Tesla Inc. will cut its full-time employee headcount by 7 per cent, with Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk saying the “road ahead is very difficult” to make electric cars affordable for the mass market.

The shares fell 7.6 per cent in pre-market trading after the Palo Alto, California-based company said it managed to eke out a profit in the fourth quarter — though a narrower one than the hard-won third-quarter profit it reported in October, according to a blog post on Friday.

We need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles

Tesla is under pressure to limit spending as it emerges from what Musk called the “most challenging” year in its history.

While it succeeded in scaling up output of its Model 3, the company missed analysts’ production targets during the fourth quarter, and it’s had to cut prices to make up for the halving of a U.S. federal tax credit that’s helped spur sales. The credit is set to drop again in July before going away entirely at the end of the year.

The company has cushioned its production challenges by initially selling only the highest-priced versions of the Model 3, its first vehicle billed as a car for the masses. In the next few months, as production increases, the company will need to sell lower-cost configurations, Musk said on the blog post. Up until now, the cheapest Model 3, whose base price is US$35,000, has cost US$44,000, he said.

GM’s Cadillac will introduce EV in fight against Tesla: sources
Oracle’s Larry Ellison reveals $1-billion stake in Tesla
Elon Musk isn’t keen on investors dragging girlfriend Grimes into lawsuit over $420 tweet

“Starting around May, we will need to deliver at least the mid-range Model 3 variant in all markets, as we need to reach more customers who can afford our vehicles,” Musk said. “Moreover, we need to continue making progress towards lower priced variants of Model 3.”

Tesla had about 45,000 workers in 2018, so the 7 per cent cut works out to about 3,150 jobs lost.

TESLA FIGHTERS

The company will also see a significant increase in competition for electric cars as traditional manufacturers have started to roll out an array of products that will be measured against its pioneering lineup. Shortly after Daimler AG’s EQC electric crossover, Audi last year unveiled the E-Tron. Its parent, Volkswagen AG, plans to introduce more than 50 purely battery-powered vehicles through 2025 across the group.

Tesla shares dropped to US$321 in early U.S. trading. The stock is little changed in the past year — though it gyrated dramatically during 2018 as Musk careened from crisis to crisis: warring with analysts over Tesla’s cash needs; smoking weed in an interview and losing his chairman’s role in an SEC settlement over his tweeted buyout offer that never materialized, all while working furiously to ramp up production of the Model 3.

Tesla’s overarching challenge is making cars, batteries and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels, Musk said Friday in the blog post.

“While we have made great progress, our products are still too expensive for most people,” Musk said. “Sorry for all these numbers, but I want to make sure that you know all the facts and figures and understand that the road ahead is very difficult.”

Incumbent carmakers are also struggling with the high cost of making electric cars. On top of record investment in new electric-car lineups, high battery costs are crimping margins and buyers worried about charging and driving range largely remain on the fence.

Tesla’s layoffs mark the second shedding of workers in a matter of months. In June, Tesla dismissed 9 per cent of its workforce, after misjudging how quickly it could ramp up mass-manufacture of the Model 3 — only to go on an aggressive hiring spree shortly after.

Bloomberg.com
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Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
Tesla Lowers Q4 Profit Guidance, Unveils Plans To Cut 7% Of Work Force; TSLA down 8%...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-t...-7-11547805922

You don't survive as company if you can't make the tough decisions. To me, this is the logical step in adapting to the market. With their Fed Tax Credit incentive gone, Tesla now has to adjust. Tesla will be the litmus test to see what other car manufacturers will do when the Fed Tax Credit gets phased out. I know some people see this as the beginning of the end, but really this is just another milestone. If necessity is the mother of invention, then this will be the path to a more affordable EV for Tesla.
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      01-18-2019, 12:40 PM   #1238
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You don't survive as company if you can't make the tough decisions. To me, this is the logical step in adapting to the market. With their Fed Tax Credit incentive gone, Tesla now has to adjust. Tesla will be the litmus test to see what other car manufacturers will do when the Fed Tax Credit gets phased out. I know some people see this as the beginning of the end, but really this is just another milestone. If necessity is the mother of invention, then this will be the path to a more affordable EV for Tesla.
I see it as the beginning of the end. Tesla started early, but everyone else that matters (for now) is catching up. Competition is intensifying rapidly. At the same time, gasoline prices are down/low and fuel economy continues to improve, stressing the economic case for electric vehicles (there are other cases, I know). And the basic Tesla design is getting long in the tooth. They have to improve quality, productivity, price points, innovate further, update styling and interiors, and achieve all that against competitors that are equipped to do the same things at a faster pace and with much better scale economics, especially in distribution and service. I don’t think they can do it.

I really want to say that Tesla is baked!
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      01-18-2019, 12:41 PM   #1239
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Originally Posted by jmg View Post
You don't survive as company if you can't make the tough decisions. To me, this is the logical step in adapting to the market. With their Fed Tax Credit incentive gone, Tesla now has to adjust. Tesla will be the litmus test to see what other car manufacturers will do when the Fed Tax Credit gets phased out. I know some people see this as the beginning of the end, but really this is just another milestone. If necessity is the mother of invention, then this will be the path to a more affordable EV for Tesla.
It's a good thing Tesla is around blazing the trail. We would be no where near the advancement in EVs it if weren't for Elon.
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      01-18-2019, 12:46 PM   #1240
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It slowed it down drastically, however the rebate was only suspended about 7 months ago. The reality is sales were no where near what governments have predicted in Canada for the past 5 years.
What were the government predictions? Sales are definitely on the rise

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      01-18-2019, 01:01 PM   #1241
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I see it as the beginning of the end. Tesla started early, but everyone else that matters (for now) is catching up. Competition is intensifying rapidly. At the same time, gasoline prices are down/low and fuel economy continues to improve, stressing the economic case for electric vehicles (there are other cases, I know). And the basic Tesla design is getting long in the tooth. They have to improve quality, productivity, price points, innovate further, update styling and interiors, and achieve all that against competitors that are equipped to do the same things at a faster pace and with much better scale economics, especially in distribution and service. I don’t think they can do it.

I really want to say that Tesla is baked!

I want them to stick around for the simple fact that competition breeds innovation. With them around, the others will have to stay on point as well. Musk's deep pockets and unconventional practices keep everyone on their toes, and that's good for us, the consumer. Why would I be against something that benefits me?
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      01-18-2019, 01:45 PM   #1242
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What were the government predictions? Sales are definitely on the rise

Your graph that's attached seems to show EV sales up about 2.5% over sales from Jan. 2016. So it's pretty clear that sales have not met government projections. In Ontario charging stations are being removed at GO station parking lots and a number of private retail outlets that have had them in their parking lots. The reason is lack of use.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...fall-short-of/
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      01-18-2019, 01:49 PM   #1243
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Originally Posted by Grumpy Old Man View Post
Your graph that's attached seems to show EV sales up about 2.5% over sales from Jan. 2016. So it's pretty clear that sales have not met government projections. In Ontario charging stations are being removed at GO station parking lots and a number of private retail outlets that have had them in their parking lots. The reason is lack of use.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...fall-short-of/
The lack of use of public charging stations will continue to go down as battery capacity increases.

Edit: I'm surprised no one called my out on my poor grammar! It should say "The lack of use of public charging will continue to go UP as battery capacity increases" or I could have just kept it simple without the double negatives: "The use of public charging will continue to go down as batter capacity increases".
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Last edited by jmg; 01-18-2019 at 02:29 PM.
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      01-18-2019, 01:53 PM   #1244
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Your graph that's attached seems to show EV sales up about 2.5% over sales from Jan. 2016. So it's pretty clear that sales have not met government projections. In Ontario charging stations are being removed at GO station parking lots and a number of private retail outlets that have had them in their parking lots. The reason is lack of use.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...fall-short-of/
I would say the prediction the government made almost 10 years ago were aggressive given the time. At that time there were very few manufactures making EVs and those that were available were expensive. Fast forward to today, we now have many more choices at a much better price. Many people are considering an EV for their next purchase, supercharger stations are being built, etc. The trend towards EVs is definitely rising.I would like to see some sort of national rebate program...this may be the catalyst that gets even more people into EVs.
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      01-18-2019, 01:53 PM   #1245
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The lack of use of public charging stations will continue to go down as battery capacity increases.
Perhaps. This is a very complicated and expensive problem. Fast charging stations require significant infrastructure to support. Range anxiety is a real thing regardless and therefore do we install more charging stations or hope that battery technology gets so good that its not an issue. Another issue that seems to be a factor in Canada at least is that EV sales are really only going up in Ontario, Quebec and BC were there is densely populated cities, I think its going to be a very long time before EV sales move out of the cities.
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      01-18-2019, 02:09 PM   #1246
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Originally Posted by Grumpy Old Man View Post
Perhaps. This is a very complicated and expensive problem. Fast charging stations require significant infrastructure to support. Range anxiety is a real thing regardless and therefore do we install more charging stations or hope that battery technology gets so good that its not an issue. Another issue that seems to be a factor in Canada at least is that EV sales are really only going up in Ontario, Quebec and BC were there is densely populated cities, I think its going to be a very long time before EV sales move out of the cities.
Range anxiety is going to dwindle very soon. The Model 3 already does up to 300 miles, 230 for the Bolt, 310 for the Mission E... it's getting up to ICE tank range. With "fuel pumps" basically in our own garages, even out of city EVs aren't too far out of reach. The remaining problem will be those who live in apartments and condos without outlets in the carports and garages.
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      01-18-2019, 02:10 PM   #1247
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I would say the prediction the government made almost 10 years ago were aggressive given the time. At that time there were very few manufactures making EVs and those that were available were expensive. Fast forward to today, we now have many more choices at a much better price. Many people are considering an EV for their next purchase, supercharger stations are being built, etc. The trend towards EVs is definitely rising.I would like to see some sort of national rebate program...this may be the catalyst that gets even more people into EVs.
I would argue that they HAD to be aggressive to stimulate growth in the market.
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      01-18-2019, 02:24 PM   #1248
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The lack of use of public charging stations will continue to go down as battery capacity increases.
Likely so. I see many new businesses are implementing charge stations for staff. That combined with better battery life, home charging and supercharges along the major routes is likely all that is needed.
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      01-18-2019, 02:30 PM   #1249
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Likely so. I see many new businesses are implementing charge stations for staff. That combined with better battery life, home charging and supercharges along the major routes is likely all that is needed.
Downtown areas in older cities have some significant problems for folks who want EV's as many homes don't have a garage or even parking anywhere near the house so charging becomes a big challenge.
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      01-18-2019, 02:35 PM   #1250
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Likely so. I see many new businesses are implementing charge stations for staff. That combined with better battery life, home charging and supercharges along the major routes is likely all that is needed.
These "super charging stations" require significant electrical infrastructure to support.
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      01-18-2019, 02:38 PM   #1251
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I would say the prediction the government made almost 10 years ago were aggressive given the time. At that time there were very few manufactures making EVs and those that were available were expensive. Fast forward to today, we now have many more choices at a much better price. Many people are considering an EV for their next purchase, supercharger stations are being built, etc. The trend towards EVs is definitely rising.I would like to see some sort of national rebate program...this may be the catalyst that gets even more people into EVs.
Ontario is predicting a savings of $1 Billion by cutting the rebate program, I'm not really in favour of tax dollars being spent nationally or in Ontario for that matter to support this program. If EV's are going to be the be viable then let them survive or fail in the market.
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      01-18-2019, 02:51 PM   #1252
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Downtown areas in older cities have some significant problems for folks who want EV's as many homes don't have a garage or even parking anywhere near the house so charging becomes a big challenge.
Good point.
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      01-18-2019, 02:53 PM   #1253
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Originally Posted by MrRoboto View Post
Good point.
This has been an issue in the old parts of Toronto with street parking the only option.
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      01-18-2019, 02:57 PM   #1254
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Originally Posted by Grumpy Old Man View Post
Ontario is predicting a savings of $1 Billion by cutting the rebate program, I'm not really in favour of tax dollars being spent nationally or in Ontario for that matter to support this program. If EV's are going to be the be viable then let them survive or fail in the market.
Do you think that's the real reason for ending the rebate or is it to keep people driving fossil fuels cars so the fuel taxes keep rollin in?

Nothing wrong with the government providing a stimulus to get the market started. Years ago there was a rebate available for home building/renovation. It got a lot of people spending money on materials and trades people.
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