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      11-19-2018, 08:34 PM   #45
qba335i
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Here's my take. I'm 44 and I've been invested in the market since the late 1990s. I'm on track to retire at 52 and I could be driving something far more impressive than an M235, but that will come in due time. My house was paid off 4 years ago.

I first started out with a company 401K and have learned many things along the way. I've made some mistakes along the way, many because of me being ignorant and not doing my due diligence. I could be far wealthier if I had become more informed years ago.

IMO, for most of us common folks where the goal is to have around $1M to 2M in assets by retirement, it's MUCH better to play it safe with investments. I could make this post REALLY long-winded, but I'll keep it shorter for those younger folks that are just getting started (no particular order for the recommendations):

1) Take advantage of your company 401K and do nothing more than the match. Within those investments, choose the S&P 500 index funds like Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFIAX). S&P 500 index funds simply buy the top 500 stocks in the S&P. There's no science to it. If the market is up 10% for the year, then you'd know your S&P 500 index fund is up ~10%. Simple.

2) Open a Roth IRA and do 90% S&P 500 index funds and 10% bond funds like Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX).

3) Warren Buffett's 15 minute retirement plan. Simple and effective. https://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ment-plan.aspx

4) Reading materials: 1) Little Book of Common Sense Investing and the 2) The Millionaire Next-Door. Both are simple, to the point,.....and redundant.

5) For funds, understand the term "Expense Ratio". In simple terms, expense ratio is what fund managers charge their shareholders to cover the fund's total annual operating expenses. So if you have $1,000 in a fund and the expense ratio is 0.50%, the fund will charge you a fee of $50 every year. It might not seem like a lot, but as your investments grow, those fee charges adds up over time and take away growth potential. Index funds generally have really low expense ratios. Anything over 0.15% is too much for the common investor, IMO. VFIAX is 0.04%.

6) Invest yourself and don't use a retirement planner. This was probably my biggest mistake. I used a Morgan Stanley retirement planner for nearly 15 years (same one my parents used) and lost a lot of money because I was ignorant on so many things like listening to his advice, paying him 1% to manage my accounts, etc. 4 years ago I wised up, moved all my money Vanguard, readjusted my investments and bought lots of VFIAX, and started self-managing. I happened to move my money and change investments at a very opportune time in the market and have increased my portfolio in the deep six figure range.

7) Stick with it, don't panic during big market swings, and remember you're in this for the long haul. I have weathered some of the biggest market swings in history and have watched my portfolio drop by up to 40% during the last crash. I've made all that back plus a massive amount more.

8) When you get a solid financial base (say 5X time annual salary), then you can start looking at solid stand alone stocks and throw a few thousand at wild cards for fun. When it comes to wild cards, you really should have some level of research before diving in.

9) Between my brokerage account, two Roth IRAs (wife and myself), traditional IRA (converted 401K from a prior employer), and my current 401K, my portfolio is about 70% VFIAX, 15% Berkshire Hathaway Class B, 5% other stocks and wild cards, and 10% VBTLX.

10) Market timing doesn't work. Don't believe anyone that tells you they can.

11) Get rich schemes are simply that.

12) Live within your means. Don't be a cowboy with a big hat, but no cattle.

13) Put away as much as you can. Don't live solely in the now because the chances are high you'll live deep into your 70s and you could be quite miserable if you don't plan accordingly.

14) Don't count on social security. If it's there when you retire, then consider it spending money. That's the way I look at it.
That is NOT a good financial advice.

1) you should max out 401k contribution. Currently 18,500.

2) you should have a diversified portfolio - that includes equities (stocks/mutual funds/ETFs), bonds, alternatives (real estate and commodities) and cash. Once you have more assets you can start adding private equity and hedge funds. Management fee vs product fee - know the difference and know what you get.

3) there is a benefit of having a portfolio manager (don't confuse with a sales oriented financial advisor who used to sell cars) as he will be able to design an optimal portfolio, monitor it and do tactical shifts. Most people don't have the skill, knowledge and time to manage money plus they make irrational decisions.

4) everyone is a star/professional investor in a bull market. The true investing starts when the market starts moving in the opposite direction.


OP: what is your annualized 1,3,5 year return? Any risk metrics? How did you do in 2008-2009?


Disclaimer: I work in the investment field.
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      11-19-2018, 10:13 PM   #46
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Overall it’s the same amount of $. I’m just curious what people would do that’s all. I already know which one I’m going with.
If you’re trying to learn, read what I said again. I’m not saying there are stupid questions, but your question implies the share price matters. It doesn’t.
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      11-19-2018, 11:32 PM   #47
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FYI, the price of a stock literally means nothing. 1 share of AMZN or 185 shares of GE is still worth the $1500.

To think a person would literally spend $1,500/share on something based on people (mostly n00bs) recommending it on a discussion forum is preceisely why the financial industry exists and robs people blind. People don’t want to understand jack shit and they are willing to let a complete idiot manage their life savings.

Yet the same people use coupons, bundle their home/auto insurance to save money and research what refrigerator to buy for 6 months. Amazing.

You have to do your own research and understand what you’re buying, period.

Overall it’s the same amount of $. I’m just curious what people would do that’s all. I already know which one I’m going with.
which one are you going with?
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      11-20-2018, 08:37 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
That is NOT a good financial advice.

1) you should max out 401k contribution. Currently 18,500.

2) you should have a diversified portfolio - that includes equities (stocks/mutual funds/ETFs), bonds, alternatives (real estate and commodities) and cash. Once you have more assets you can start adding private equity and hedge funds. Management fee vs product fee - know the difference and know what you get.

3) there is a benefit of having a portfolio manager (don't confuse with a sales oriented financial advisor who used to sell cars) as he will be able to design an optimal portfolio, monitor it and do tactical shifts. Most people don't have the skill, knowledge and time to manage money plus they make irrational decisions.

4) everyone is a star/professional investor in a bull market. The true investing starts when the market starts moving in the opposite direction.


OP: what is your annualized 1,3,5 year return? Any risk metrics? How did you do in 2008-2009?


Disclaimer: I work in the investment field.
Portfolio managers are worthless averaged out. They are as good at picking stocks or making “tactical shifts” as a monkey. You just don’t need them.

Bonds are a stupid investment for anyone with at least a 10 year horizon.

When the market turns lower, no one is good in general. The best advice is to keep buying.

Agreed on max 401K.
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      11-20-2018, 08:57 AM   #49
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there is blood on the streets!

what are people doing this week? or just sit tight right now?
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      11-20-2018, 09:05 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
That is NOT a good financial advice.

1) you should max out 401k contribution. Currently 18,500.

2) you should have a diversified portfolio - that includes equities (stocks/mutual funds/ETFs), bonds, alternatives (real estate and commodities) and cash. Once you have more assets you can start adding private equity and hedge funds. Management fee vs product fee - know the difference and know what you get.

3) there is a benefit of having a portfolio manager (don't confuse with a sales oriented financial advisor who used to sell cars) as he will be able to design an optimal portfolio, monitor it and do tactical shifts. Most people don't have the skill, knowledge and time to manage money plus they make irrational decisions.

4) everyone is a star/professional investor in a bull market. The true investing starts when the market starts moving in the opposite direction.


OP: what is your annualized 1,3,5 year return? Any risk metrics? How did you do in 2008-2009?


Disclaimer: I work in the investment field.
Portfolio managers are worthless averaged out. They are as good at picking stocks or making “tactical shifts” as a monkey. You just don’t need them.

Bonds are a stupid investment for anyone with at least a 10 year horizon.

When the market turns lower, no one is good in general. The best advice is to keep buying.

Agreed on max 401K.
Portfolio manager (PM) controls the asset allocation (not only stock selection) And asset allocation drives the returns. As you know the industry is going away from individual stocks towards index mutual funds/etfs. The goals driven investing goes a step further and manages goals/needs vs expected returns.

Bonds serve a purpose. They reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, provide current income and can be used as portfolio reserve.

When the market turns down (like 2008) you see the benefits of diversification. Bonds returned ~5%, gold ~5.5% and cash ~1.8% (vs -53% Emerging markets or -37% US equities). In theory this seems pretty straightforward to keep buying more when the market dips - unfortunately most people sell on the downside and never recover. PM can also manage the client and control his emotions.

As I said before, in a bull market everyone is a professional investor. It was easy to trade the US market for the last 9-10 years as we he a huge outperformance. Let's see if this will persist going forward - usually thing revert to the mean and money shifts fast.
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      11-20-2018, 09:32 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Portfolio manager (PM) controls the asset allocation (not only stock selection) And asset allocation drives the returns. As you know the industry is going away from individual stocks towards index mutual funds/etfs. The goals driven investing goes a step further and manages goals/needs vs expected returns.

Bonds serve a purpose. They reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, provide current income and can be used as portfolio reserve.

When the market turns down (like 2008) you see the benefits of diversification. Bonds returned ~5%, gold ~5.5% and cash ~1.8% (vs -53% Emerging markets or -37% US equities). In theory this seems pretty straightforward to keep buying more when the market dips - unfortunately most people sell on the downside and never recover. PM can also manage the client and control his emotions.

As I said before, in a bull market everyone is a professional investor. It was easy to trade the US market for the last 9-10 years as we he a huge outperformance. Let's see if this will persist going forward - usually thing revert to the mean and money shifts fast.
You should never “trade” the market. It doesn’t work, period. Bull markets are great, but I like bear markets too because I’m a net buyer of stocks. I get to buy more.

I know what a bond is...they are inferior to stocks. Sure, it reduces volatility, but it also produces crap returns if you have a long term horizon. There are always exceptions, but long term money you have invested needs to be in stocks. You don’t sell when markets are down...you buy more. I couldn’t care less if stocks are down 40% because I don’t sell at the bottom. They are paper losses until you sell.

I invested through 2007-2009 too. Loved it...picked up shares at better prices and rode them all the way up. Buying more as we drop here. If I need some income, I can sell a few shares here and there.

You’re making this too hard. If you never stop buying, you never lose. I buy more when stocks drop, so I like it when the market is down. No one needs a portfolio manager to execute such a basic, working strategy.

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      11-20-2018, 12:22 PM   #52
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That is NOT a good financial advice.
I'm not surprised by your responses considering it's your line of work. Can't blame you; just differing opinions.

Quote:
1) you should max out 401k contribution. Currently 18,500.
Why max your 401K and be stuck with the limited investment options often associated with company plans? Why not just invest to the company match (free money) and then take the remainder and fund your own Roth IRA, pay down debt, buy an affordable house in a good area? Sure, there are some tax advantages to funding a 401K to it's max, but I'd argue you're better taking the investment risk by widening your portfolio elsewhere and having more investment options.

Quote:
2) you should have a diversified portfolio - that includes equities (stocks/mutual funds/ETFs), bonds, alternatives (real estate and commodities) and cash. Once you have more assets you can start adding private equity and hedge funds. Management fee vs product fee - know the difference and know what you get.
The point to this thread is focused on people just starting out, not people with large multi-million dollar portfolios that can be buying into REITs/real estate, and the like. That's what my recommendations are generally based in. Yes, you should diversify, but let's be realistic here. Just how diverse is someone going to get when they are just starting out and/or only have $500K or less investments? So you can only spread it so thin before it becomes a management problem and you lose control/focus?

My recommendation was index funds (check to your recommendation), bonds (check to your recommendation), and stocks (check to your recommendation). Cash should be implied as everyone should have a rainy day fund. First shoot for $1,000, then 3 months take home, and then 6 months take home. For "real estate", for most of us, that is buying a home. Yes, you can make an absolute killing real estate with rental properties, well thought out flips, REITs, etc., but you can also lose your a$$. I wouldn't recommend to anyone to look into real estate until they have a few million in assets AND are knowledgeable of real estate and the risks/headaches. Real estate is high on my list at the moment but I'm still feeling it out.

As someone in the investment field, I can totally see your resistance to S&P 500 index funds because they are so simple and take people like yourself completely out of the equation because there is no deep or complex investment strategy to index funds. Thing is, the data strongly supports things like the S&P 500 index fund as the way to go for the common investor (i.e., someone with sub $2M in assets). They are cheap to manage, ultra low fee, effective, simple, and wealth building in the long term (not even the best investor can beat them in the 10+ year term).

Quote:
3) there is a benefit of having a portfolio manager (don't confuse with a sales oriented financial advisor who used to sell cars) as he will be able to design an optimal portfolio, monitor it and do tactical shifts. Most people don't have the skill, knowledge and time to manage money plus they make irrational decisions.
My guy at Morgan Stanley was a portfolio manager/adviser/VP. He only manages portfolios for clients with $750K+. We spent a lot of time over the years designing my portfolio to fit my age and risk tolerance. I was in all sorts of "tactical" investment tracts with much of that being actively managed. This was all based on various research and input from the Morgan Stanley investment gurus. What I learned was that tactical and actively managed means high fees. I was charged 1% annually by him plus all sorts of other little fees buried deep in the documents. After wising up and actually learning a few things on my own about how much I was really spending, I figured out I was paying about 1.5-1.75% annually Morgan Stanley which was very significant, especially over the course of 15 years and how that money could have been put to use in my investments rather than fees. I probably wouldn't have been upset by paying this if my portfolio had done better. Thing is, even after the massive market upswing after the 2008 crash, my portfolio wasn't even coming close to matching the market growth. I was getting left in the dust even as Morgan Stanley was trying to tweek things in an attempt to right the ship. In the end, I spent deep into the 6 figures for Morgan Stanley to manage my money and really got nothing in return.

Another thing I hated was that I had to go through him to make investment changes, look at things in real time, pull out cash from my money market with them, etc. Now that I manage things myself, I'm in total control and see everything in real time and can transfer cash within 24 hours.

Quote:
4) everyone is a star/professional investor in a bull market. The true investing starts when the market starts moving in the opposite direction.
True, but I'll take my chances. After my personnel experience and the research I've done, I'll take my chances that my investment choices are the best for me and will work out more effectively how it did prior to me managing my own money and no middleman involved.

You're right, most people don't know squat about investing or where to start. Many are irrational and will panic at the slightest market slide. With that said, my recommendations for anyone starting out is simple as this:

READ Warren Buffet's 15 minute retirement plan, follow it, and build off of it as your wealth grows. Read his research behind it. It's all very simple to understand and is founded in REAL data.
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      11-20-2018, 12:23 PM   #53
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there is blood on the streets!

what are people doing this week? or just sit tight right now?
Sit tight. This is nothing.
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      11-20-2018, 12:43 PM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Portfolio manager (PM) controls the asset allocation (not only stock selection) And asset allocation drives the returns. As you know the industry is going away from individual stocks towards index mutual funds/etfs. The goals driven investing goes a step further and manages goals/needs vs expected returns.

Bonds serve a purpose. They reduce the overall volatility of the portfolio, provide current income and can be used as portfolio reserve.

When the market turns down (like 2008) you see the benefits of diversification. Bonds returned ~5%, gold ~5.5% and cash ~1.8% (vs -53% Emerging markets or -37% US equities). In theory this seems pretty straightforward to keep buying more when the market dips - unfortunately most people sell on the downside and never recover. PM can also manage the client and control his emotions.

As I said before, in a bull market everyone is a professional investor. It was easy to trade the US market for the last 9-10 years as we he a huge outperformance. Let's see if this will persist going forward - usually thing revert to the mean and money shifts fast.
You should never "trade" the market. It doesn't work, period. Bull markets are great, but I like bear markets too because I'm a net buyer of stocks. I get to buy more.

I know what a bond is...they are inferior to stocks. Sure, it reduces volatility, but it also produces crap returns if you have a long term horizon. There are always exceptions, but long term money you have invested needs to be in stocks. You don't sell when markets are down...you buy more. I couldn't care less if stocks are down 40% because I don't sell at the bottom. They are paper losses until you sell.

I invested through 2007-2009 too. Loved it...picked up shares at better prices and rode them all the way up. Buying more as we drop here. If I need some income, I can sell a few shares here and there.

You're making this too hard. If you never stop buying, you never lose. I buy more when stocks drop, so I like it when the market is down. No one needs a portfolio manager to execute such a basic, working strategy.
Trading the market works when we consider tactical shifts. I work for a major firm and we offer both strategic and tactical asset allocations. There are times when you want to reduce risk and there are times when you want to increase risk. Having 100% of assets in SPX is not prudent.

For equities: do you only invest in US or also add international and emerging? Growth vs value? What sectors? Large or small cap? Maybe factor based? There are a lot of considerations when we talk about optimal portfolio.
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      11-20-2018, 01:30 PM   #55
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Trading the market works when we consider tactical shifts. I work for a major firm and we offer both strategic and tactical asset allocations. There are times when you want to reduce risk and there are times when you want to increase risk. Having 100% of assets in SPX is not prudent.

For equities: do you only invest in US or also add international and emerging? Growth vs value? What sectors? Large or small cap? Maybe factor based? There are a lot of considerations when we talk about optimal portfolio.
For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.
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      11-20-2018, 02:20 PM   #56
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Lots of good info on here and much wiser investors, Im sure.

That being said... I CAN PRETTY MUCH GURANTEE YOU WILL MAKE MONEY...

Buying into ACB as soon as possible. Im holding 1500 shares and am upside down currently but recommend doing a bit or research and making an educated decision for yourself!

Whats the worst that could happen. Really? If someone has insight, please share.
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      11-20-2018, 02:23 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Trading the market works when we consider tactical shifts. I work for a major firm and we offer both strategic and tactical asset allocations. There are times when you want to reduce risk and there are times when you want to increase risk. Having 100% of assets in SPX is not prudent.

For equities: do you only invest in US or also add international and emerging? Growth vs value? What sectors? Large or small cap? Maybe factor based? There are a lot of considerations when we talk about optimal portfolio.
For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.
I will say it again. A globally diversified portfolio with additional diversification amongst asset classes utilizing low cost index funds will outperform the s&p over time. Hit the major indexes. Look up Callan periodic table.
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      11-20-2018, 02:45 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.
Thank you.
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      11-20-2018, 03:19 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Trading the market works when we consider tactical shifts. I work for a major firm and we offer both strategic and tactical asset allocations. There are times when you want to reduce risk and there are times when you want to increase risk. Having 100% of assets in SPX is not prudent.

For equities: do you only invest in US or also add international and emerging? Growth vs value? What sectors? Large or small cap? Maybe factor based? There are a lot of considerations when we talk about optimal portfolio.
For the long term, it is prudent. The optimal portfolio is one invested in a low cost S&P500 index, reinvesting dividends. It will beat 99% of actively managed funds and anyone trying to pick stocks, reblance, reduce risk, etc.

When you try to "reduce risk" you are trying to time the market. You will underperform, period. They all do.

Why do you think Warren Buffet bet any hedge fund willing to take him up on it that the S&P500 will outperform their actively managed fund? Because it will over the long term and he was right, btw.

The S&P500 gained 125.8% over ten years. The five hedge funds, picked by a firm called Protégé Partners, added an average of about 36%.

There are people who can do it, but your chances of finding that person are essentially 0. Also, when that person is found, money tends to flow to them and they eventually underperform too.
Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

1) 20 years ending Sept 2018:
Mid cap, small cap, real estate and emerging outperformed large cap (S&500)

2) now let's look at a diversified portfolio => ending value of $1 invested 12/1990 through Sept 2018. Maintaining the same risk premium:

- 100% of portfolio invested in Large Cap => $16.51
- 62%LC/1%Bonds/18% Mid cap/4% small cap/15% reits => $18.99

Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.
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      11-20-2018, 04:22 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

1) 20 years ending Sept 2018:
Mid cap, small cap, real estate and emerging outperformed large cap (S&500)

2) now let's look at a diversified portfolio => ending value of $1 invested 12/1990 through Sept 2018. Maintaining the same risk premium:

- 100% of portfolio invested in Large Cap => $16.51
- 62%LC/1%Bonds/18% Mid cap/4% small cap/15% reits => $18.99

Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.
Returns for 1 year don't matter. The exercise was done for a 10 year period, which is about the shortest period that makes sense when you're investing long term.

And your data is fine...but you don't need a PM to do it. I don't have any problem with other index funds, including small, mid and large cap. I'm saying that for the general investor, they don't need a PM to help them buy the S&P500 and other index funds...and essentially all you need to beat most pros is consistent buying of ONE index fund (S&P500). I'm keeping this simple since it's a beginner's advice thread.

You also proved by point that bonds are terrible investments for long term investors.
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      11-20-2018, 06:00 PM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.
Again, we're talking about averages and likelihood. For a small peanuts investor (i.e. $2M or less in investments), stick to what is most likely to work in the long term.

With that said, let's also not forget that 95%+ in the country have less than $50K in assets/investments/cash so why are we even arguing about this I have many 40 something y/or friends with $100-250K/yr paying jobs, nice hours, expensive cars, boats, motorcycles, expensive hobbies, eating out all the time, etc. and next to nothing in investments and savings. So dangerous, but that's a reality for most in this country regardless of income level. Live beyond your means and YOLO.
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      11-20-2018, 08:12 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox View Post
which one are you going with?
Bought some shares of NVIDIA. Had a high of almost $300 in September. Market has been tanking so it dropped about 50%. Figured it will go up eventually (just like Amazon shares back in the late 90’s). I’m in it for the long haul baby!!
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      11-21-2018, 09:22 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by BayMoWe335 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

1) 20 years ending Sept 2018:
Mid cap, small cap, real estate and emerging outperformed large cap (S&500)

2) now let's look at a diversified portfolio => ending value of $1 invested 12/1990 through Sept 2018. Maintaining the same risk premium:

- 100% of portfolio invested in Large Cap => $16.51
- 62%LC/1%Bonds/18% Mid cap/4% small cap/15% reits => $18.99

Buffet returned -32% in 2008. He would have to close his shop if he managed a hedge fund. I know some ABS hedge funds that make the S&P 500 look like a bond fund - when you look at total returns since 2008/2009.
Returns for 1 year don't matter. The exercise was done for a 10 year period, which is about the shortest period that makes sense when you're investing long term.

And your data is fine...but you don't need a PM to do it. I don't have any problem with other index funds, including small, mid and large cap. I'm saying that for the general investor, they don't need a PM to help them buy the S&P500 and other index funds...and essentially all you need to beat most pros is consistent buying of ONE index fund (S&P500). I'm keeping this simple since it's a beginner's advice thread.

You also proved by point that bonds are terrible investments for long term investors.
Again - Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

Data set: 10 year returns - data 01/1950 - 09/2018

1) 100% stocks (S&P500)
Average return: 10.04%
Average loss: -1.2%

2) 90% stocks + 10% bonds
Average return: 10.00%
Average loss: -0.9%

As you see you get basically the same return with lower risk. You want to design a portfolio that will provide the highest return per unit of risk.
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      11-21-2018, 09:41 AM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Again - Not exactly... let's look at actual data vs your opinion.

Data set: 10 year returns - data 01/1950 - 09/2018

1) 100% stocks (S&P500)
Average return: 10.04%
Average loss: -1.2%

2) 90% stocks + 10% bonds
Average return: 10.00%
Average loss: -0.9%

As you see you get basically the same return with lower risk. You want to design a portfolio that will provide the highest return per unit of risk.
I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'll take your word for it. What is the total return since 1950 for that scenario?

More broadly, again, you're still better off not paying anyone to do anything for you and just buying stock index funds over a lifetime. If you want to do 10% bonds, that won't kill you...but stocks are overwhelmingly the best choice for long term investors.

Equities over a lifetime will outperform the bonds, so even a 10% bond mix is going to be a drag versus 100% equities. Not sure what the detail is in your data.
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      11-21-2018, 07:34 PM   #65
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i dabbled in a few call options
probably just throwing away money
but i did want to see how it works in real time
i have a few cheap ones that expire on Black Friday

being that it's a half day for the market, i should wake up early to make sure i can close out my position (is that what it's called?) in case the call options make it into the money
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      11-29-2018, 04:57 AM   #66
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the market is on a roll
I am finally back in the positive after being down about 5% of the total portfolio value for almost a month

I dabbled in some options
threw away $10 on 3 short term calls to just see what happens
they all expired worthless

then bought DBX call, spent $15 and sold for $45
and AMD call, spent $33 and sold for $75
felt like a total badass
but I only purchased 1 contract each so it isn't like get rich money
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