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      07-07-2020, 10:49 AM   #4489
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Most people misunderstand what auto pilot means. They think with Tesla auto pilot, they don't have to watch the car drive itself.
I get your point but would reverse the logic. Tesla launched a product with a name that misled people about its' limitations. See second paragraph.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/02...topilot-death/
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      07-07-2020, 11:08 AM   #4490
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[COLOR="Blue"]No sales plateau for electric BMWs yet either:[/COLOR]
As expected, BMW Group sales figures for the first six months of this year were impacted by the effects of the temporary closure of retail outlets worldwide. The company delivered a total of 962,575 ([COLOR="darkred"]-23.0%[/COLOR]) premium BMW, MINI and Rolls-Royce vehicles to customers worldwide in the first half-year... In the first half of the year, a total of 61,652 ([COLOR="DarkRed"]+3.4%[/COLOR])[COLOR="DarkRed"] electrified BMW and MINI vehicles[/COLOR] were handed over to customers.

The BMW Group began early with the systematic electrification of its vehicle portfolio... Production of the fully-electric BMW iX3 will begin in a few months. Next year, electrification of the model line-up continues with the fully-electric BMW i4 and the BMW iNEXT. The BMW Group aims to have a total of 25 electrified models on the roads by 2023 – more than half of them fully electric.
What happens when no one buys them? Just because they (BMW)(all auto manufacturers?) forecast some fake "desire" for BEVs doesn't mean people are actually going to buy them. I guess I would have a different opinion if I lived somewhere that people actually drove these "cars". Here in NY it's a VERY low percentage. You can't push shit on people that don't want it especially expensive shit. I understand the need to have some BEVs in the portfolio but 25 is asinine. There is a market for them but it's not as large as they think/hope it is.
I've been telling him the same thing forever. It's the same way here in California. Most people don't want BEV's and outside of the virtue signaling Tesla drivers (...not all, but a pretty large percentage) living in metro areas, you don't really see BEV's.
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      07-07-2020, 11:49 AM   #4491
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Originally Posted by Sportstick View Post
Tell this guy who was in a crash that easily could not have happened in another car.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/33789/...erturned-truck

Or, this guy:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/tesl...ry?id=68936725

Or, this guy.....etc., etc.

https://www.wired.com/story/teslas-l...e-prior-crash/

All avoidable. AutoPilot is underdeveloped and overhyped. The technology is not mature yet. The OEMs are pulling back from advancing these features in this pandemic-caused economic depression and focusing on electrification. The best OTA update Tesla could do now is to turn AutoPilot off as they have now misled many buyers into thinking it actually is AutoPilot rather than a slight driver assist.
Yes, some people have died in crashes because of this software, I get that. The software is nowhere near done, and it will be continually developed forever probably. As more data comes in it will become more and more refined.

I feel like you are completely and utterly denying the flip side, which is that this software probably has already, and will save lives as it gets more refined. I don't know if there's a way to quantify this right now, or if there will be. I do know there's a lot of horrible drivers out there, and anything we can do circumvent that, I think is worth it in the end.

I can't follow your logic. You've admitted that a certain amount of people die every day, due to human error, or just the risk of being in a car on the road. You don't take issue with that, but you do take issue with the few who died because of an unfinished technology that's still being refined every day, which may end up saving an untold amount of lives. Why not keep trying to improve this technology? I honestly don't see the downside.

I guess well have to agree to disagree.
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      07-07-2020, 12:17 PM   #4492
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportstick View Post
Tell this guy who was in a crash that easily could not have happened in another car.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/33789/...erturned-truck

Or, this guy:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/tesl...ry?id=68936725

Or, this guy.....etc., etc.

https://www.wired.com/story/teslas-l...e-prior-crash/

All avoidable. AutoPilot is underdeveloped and overhyped. The technology is not mature yet. The OEMs are pulling back from advancing these features in this pandemic-caused economic depression and focusing on electrification. The best OTA update Tesla could do now is to turn AutoPilot off as they have now misled many buyers into thinking it actually is AutoPilot rather than a slight driver assist.
Only thing this shows is that people are idiots and Tesla shouldn't of named it autopilot because... people are idiots.

In everyone of those stories the driver was not paying attention. So how you can claim "a crash that easily could not have happened in another car." is beyond me. Couldn't have happened in any other car??? Are you saying that people are incapable of not paying attention in any other car?

How many instances are there of people not paying attention and the system actually saving them from an accident? I would argue waaaaaaaaay more, but of course you don't see that on the news.

So really the only legit argument you have is that autopilot is a misleading name since it's not actually an autopilot and I would 100% agree with that.
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      07-07-2020, 12:34 PM   #4493
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Originally Posted by VehementCrom View Post
I guess well have to agree to disagree.
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Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Only thing this shows is that people are idiots and Tesla shouldn't of named it autopilot because... people are idiots.

In everyone of those stories the driver was not paying attention. So how you can claim "a crash that easily could not have happened in another car." is beyond me. Couldn't have happened in any other car??? Are you saying that people are incapable of not paying attention in any other car?

How many instances are there of people not paying attention and the system actually saving them from an accident? I would argue waaaaaaaaay more, but of course you don't see that on the news.

So really the only legit argument you have is that autopilot is a misleading name since it's not actually an autopilot and I would 100% agree with that.
We can certainly disagree in an agreeable manner (rare these days, sadly!), but my point certainly goes to the misleading name that lulled people into inattention they otherwise would most likely not have suffered from. But, my point goes further. Read about Air France 447 and the role human accommodation to automation plays in deteriorating human performance when needed. This article is among many one can read. Human skills atrophy with lack of use, combining with lack of attention, and the outcome can be tragic. Maybe not everyday tragic, but with enough frequency already in Tesla vehicles that were avoidable tragedies.

https://hbr.org/2017/09/the-tragic-c...-of-automation

There is an entire body of study going on in the OEM industry now (I work there) on the topic of "takeover"...the need for a human to intervene when needed. There is no good science on how to alert and engage a human productively when automation is not able to maintain performance. Current research shows takeover times in the 30-45 second range to gain meaningful control, after initial fumbling and overreaction. One steering Tier I supplier is working on a system that actually will not engage the steering gear during initial takeover when humans in lab situations have flailed wildly re-grabbing the wheel.

(I am not criticizing current driver assists, such as emergency braking or a lane drift alert.)

Until enough decades pass for a fail-safe ADAS Level 5 system to perform as well as an airport automated train or building elevator, we will have many more unfortunate outcomes ahead that were avoidable.
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      07-07-2020, 12:54 PM   #4494
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Originally Posted by Sportstick View Post
I get your point but would reverse the logic. Tesla launched a product with a name that misled people about its' limitations. See second paragraph.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/02...topilot-death/
I guess we agree. Most people are not aircraft pilots. Most people think aircraft pilots get the plane in the air and then take a nap and wait to land the plane at the destination. Most people think auto pilot means the plane flies itself, which is not true. Pilots continuously monitor the auto pilot as it controls the aircraft. Secondly, aircraft have multiple backup guidance systems to avoid collisions with other aircraft let alone an ANSP tracking the aircraft flight path and keeping it separated from other aircraft, which are also under the control of an ANSP (i.e. the FAA in US).

A Tesla on auto pilot is just driving around on the street using a few different sensor suites to make steering, braking, and speed adjustments. There are other cars on the road NOT IN CONTROL by the same auto pilot system the Tesla is using, so the other vehicles are obstacles to the Tesla to avoid. Also on surface streets, there are hundreds of non-movable objects that can be mistaken for non-threats and hit while in auto pilot.

Airplanes basically fly in controlled, open air space devoid of shit to run into because (a) there are no immovable objects in open air space (like bridge abutments), and (b) aircraft in controlled air space are kept separated by an independent (of the pilot) 3rd party that is watching and separating ALL THE OTHER aircraft.

So sitting behind the wheel of a Tesla on auto pilot and not paying attention, is completely stupid and reckless (i.e. wreckful).

Last edited by Efthreeoh; 07-07-2020 at 01:39 PM..
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      07-07-2020, 01:46 PM   #4495
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportstick View Post
We can certainly disagree in an agreeable manner (rare these days, sadly!), but my point certainly goes to the misleading name that lulled people into inattention they otherwise would most likely not have suffered from. But, my point goes further. Read about Air France 447 and the role human accommodation to automation plays in deteriorating human performance when needed. This article is among many one can read. Human skills atrophy with lack of use, combining with lack of attention, and the outcome can be tragic. Maybe not everyday tragic, but with enough frequency already in Tesla vehicles that were avoidable tragedies.

https://hbr.org/2017/09/the-tragic-c...-of-automation

There is an entire body of study going on in the OEM industry now (I work there) on the topic of "takeover"...the need for a human to intervene when needed. There is no good science on how to alert and engage a human productively when automation is not able to maintain performance. Current research shows takeover times in the 30-45 second range to gain meaningful control, after initial fumbling and overreaction. One steering Tier I supplier is working on a system that actually will not engage the steering gear during initial takeover when humans in lab situations have flailed wildly re-grabbing the wheel.

(I am not criticizing current driver assists, such as emergency braking or a lane drift alert.)

Until enough decades pass for a fail-safe ADAS Level 5 system to perform as well as an airport automated train or building elevator, we will have many more unfortunate outcomes ahead that were avoidable.
The error of Air France 447 was due to a faulty airspeed sensor and the pilots misjudgements of not realizing the sensor input error and not taking the sensor off line.

But as I stated above, comparing "auto pilot" for aircraft to "auto pilot" for ground vehicles is a misnomer from the get go.
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      07-07-2020, 01:55 PM   #4496
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Only thing this shows is that people are idiots and Tesla shouldn't of named it autopilot because... people are idiots.

In everyone of those stories the driver was not paying attention. So how you can claim "a crash that easily could not have happened in another car." is beyond me. Couldn't have happened in any other car??? Are you saying that people are incapable of not paying attention in any other car?

How many instances are there of people not paying attention and the system actually saving them from an accident? I would argue waaaaaaaaay more, but of course you don't see that on the news.

So really the only legit argument you have is that autopilot is a misleading name since it's not actually an autopilot and I would 100% agree with that.
I'll put it simply. Most of us have a dishwashing machine in our homes. We add dirty dishes and soap, close the door, set a few buttons, and it starts to autonomously clean the dishes. No one after that point pays any attention to how the dishwasher is washing the dishes. This is what some people do behind the wheel of a Tesla, they stop paying attention and let the car "wash the dishes". It is human nature to stop paying attention to a machine when it is performing an automated task.

What Tesla's Operators manual says is to pay attention to what the Autopilot is doing and be at the ready to take over. I for one find that much harder to do, to watch the car drive itself. I think it is far more tiring than just driving the car, where one has to pay attention to the task at hand.
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      07-07-2020, 02:25 PM   #4497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
The error of Air France 447 was due to a faulty airspeed sensor and the pilots misjudgements of not realizing the sensor input error and not taking the sensor off line.

But as I stated above, comparing "auto pilot" for aircraft to "auto pilot" for ground vehicles is a misnomer from the get go.
We continue to agree that the nomenclature is a significant problem.

You identified the original mechanical root cause of the Air France problem. What doomed the aircraft, written about by several human factors experts, was the loss of skill and judgement by a crew through atrophy of piloting abilities resulting from increased reliance on autopilot. That human phenomenon can occur behind the wheel of a car as well. ADAS 5, if we ever figure it out, is the only solution. ADAS 3 and 4 are increasingly being looked at for skipping, if the industry proceeds much at all in these times.
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      07-07-2020, 03:10 PM   #4498
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Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
What happens when no one buys them?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I've been telling him the same thing forever.
I've learned to be more convinced by numbers and facts than opinions ... And the facts are, BEV sales continue to rise - maybe you didn't notice in my post, but BMW BEV sales INCREASED by 3% in 1H2020 while ICE sales DROPPED by 23%!

So while I agree you guys are very consistent with your opinions, the data says you're also consistently misaligned with the facts. Maybe the trends and data will change, but for now BEV sales have been rising for a decade ...

... and, look, I don't LIKE being the guy who has to poop in your ice cream! But I'm also not afraid to tell you the truth every time you take a bite.
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      07-07-2020, 03:15 PM   #4499
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Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
I've learned to be more convinced by numbers and facts than opinions ... And the facts are, BEV sales continue to rise - maybe you didn't notice in my post, but BMW BEV sales INCREASED by 3% in 1H2020 while ICE sales DROPPED by 23%!

So while I agree you guys are very consistent with your opinions, the data says you're also consistently misaligned with the facts. Maybe the trends and data will change, but for now BEV sales have been rising for a decade ...

... and, look, I don't LIKE being the guy who has to poop in your ice cream! But I'm also not afraid to tell you the truth every time you take a bite.
Maybe SpaceX will be gone in 10 years?
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      07-07-2020, 04:19 PM   #4500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
I'll put it simply. Most of us have a dishwashing machine in our homes. We add dirty dishes and soap, close the door, set a few buttons, and it starts to autonomously clean the dishes. No one after that point pays any attention to how the dishwasher is washing the dishes. This is what some people do behind the wheel of a Tesla, they stop paying attention and let the car "wash the dishes". It is human nature to stop paying attention to a machine when it is performing an automated task.

What Tesla's Operators manual says is to pay attention to what the Autopilot is doing and be at the ready to take over. I for one find that much harder to do, to watch the car drive itself. I think it is far more tiring than just driving the car, where one has to pay attention to the task at hand.
Again the only issue I'm seeing is the fact they call it autopilot. If Teslas just called it adaptive cruise control and lane keep assist (which it what autopilot is) we wouldn't be having this conversation.

As someone who uses autopilot and has also been using a similar system on my corolla for a lot longer... I find it helps a lot on long boring drives. However what you or I think really doesn't really matter. What does the data show?

Maybe it has been posted here (I don't feel like going through the whole thread) however I'm sure Tesla and other makers have actual data showing if these systems improve safety or don't.
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      07-07-2020, 04:24 PM   #4501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
What happens when no one buys them?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I've been telling him the same thing forever.
I've learned to be more convinced by numbers and facts than opinions ... And the facts are, BEV sales continue to rise - maybe you didn't notice in my post, but BMW BEV sales INCREASED by 3% in 1H2020 while ICE sales DROPPED by 23%!

So while I agree you guys are very consistent with your opinions, the data says you're also consistently misaligned with the facts. Maybe the trends and data will change, but for now BEV sales have been rising for a decade ...

... and, look, I don't LIKE being the guy who has to poop in your ice cream! But I'm also not afraid to tell you the truth every time you take a bite.
We'll see in 10 years. Just be ready to admit you weren't quite right.
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      07-07-2020, 08:16 PM   #4502
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Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
We'll see in 10 years. Just be ready to admit you weren't quite right.
Heeeyyyy .... 7 years! This thread is 3 years old. And, just for clarity ...

Data-validated forces against a BEV sales plateau:
* 10 years of sales data
* Every auto manufacturer's roadmap
* Implosion of oil industry, price volatility
* Retail and institutional investors running away from ICE
* Economic weakness of all US ICE manufacturer's
* Demographic trends
* Energy revolution trend
* Advancing electric/battery technology
* Advancing software technology
* Work-from-home & commuting patterns
* Consumer behavior transition to online buying
* European regulatory trends
* European consumer trends
* Chinese regulatory trends
* Chinese consumer behavior

Data-validated forces in support of a BEV sales plateau:
* ?

So, yeah, if all that shit changes, I'll be the first person to announce it - because I'm providing a data-driven projection, versus an opinion based on my emotions and/or what I personally want.
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      07-07-2020, 08:20 PM   #4503
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
We'll see in 10 years. Just be ready to admit you weren't quite right.
Heeeyyyy .... 7 years! This thread is 3 years old. And, just for clarity ...

Data-validated forces against a BEV sales plateau:
* 10 years of sales data
* Every auto manufacturer's roadmap
* Implosion of oil industry, price volatility
* Retail and institutional investors running away from ICE
* Economic weakness of all US ICE manufacturer's
* Demographic trends
* Energy revolution trend
* Advancing electric/battery technology
* Advancing software technology
* Work-from-home & commuting patterns
* Consumer behavior transition to online buying
* European regulatory trends
* European consumer trends
* Chinese regulatory trends
* Chinese consumer behavior

Data-validated forces in support of a BEV sales plateau:
* ?

So, yeah, if all that shit changes, I'll be the first person to announce it - because I'm providing a data-driven projection, versus an opinion based on my emotions and/or what I personally want.
See you in 2027.
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      07-07-2020, 08:39 PM   #4504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Again the only issue I'm seeing is the fact they call it autopilot. If Teslas just called it adaptive cruise control and lane keep assist (which it what autopilot is) we wouldn't be having this conversation.

As someone who uses autopilot and has also been using a similar system on my corolla for a lot longer... I find it helps a lot on long boring drives. However what you or I think really doesn't really matter. What does the data show?

Maybe it has been posted here (I don't feel like going through the whole thread) however I'm sure Tesla and other makers have actual data showing if these systems improve safety or don't.
Difference is, you have received training in the use of an auto pilot.
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      07-08-2020, 09:15 AM   #4505
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Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I've been telling him the same thing forever. It's the same way here in California. Most people don't want BEV's and outside of the virtue signaling Tesla drivers (...not all, but a pretty large percentage) living in metro areas, you don't really see BEV's.
You don't see BEVs everywhere because there's barely any on the market still compared to combustion. Especially affordable ones.

We've been using combustion since like 1900 or earlier man, do you expect all the combustion cars to just disappear and then Teslas float down from falcon heavys and land in your driveway?
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      07-08-2020, 10:48 AM   #4506
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Can someone explain what's the point of having an aggressive looking car?

Why someone wants to have an aggressive looking car???

I think I'm getting too old for the M community, seriously 😂
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      07-08-2020, 10:52 AM   #4507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VehementCrom View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
I've been telling him the same thing forever. It's the same way here in California. Most people don't want BEV's and outside of the virtue signaling Tesla drivers (...not all, but a pretty large percentage) living in metro areas, you don't really see BEV's.
You don't see BEVs everywhere because there's barely any on the market still compared to combustion. Especially affordable ones.

We've been using combustion since like 1900 or earlier man, do you expect all the combustion cars to just disappear and then Teslas float down from falcon heavys and land in your driveway?
Not at all. I realize that and therein lies my point. I'm sure you haven't read all of my contributions in this thread and trying to repeat myself would be painstaking. It's a rather lengthy thread and there are a lot of pages. In a nutshell, the demand isn't there on behalf of the public. Even in countries like Sweden a bunch of government influence is required to get BEV take rates into the 40% range. Here in America it just won't happen that way.......at least not for a very, very long time, hence why 97% of cars on the road are ICE's. This country sells 3 million trucks a year across all manufacturers. BEV's are an afterthought for most people. If they can't outsell trucks, they have a really long road ahead.
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      07-08-2020, 10:52 AM   #4508
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Originally Posted by LOW4LYF View Post
Can someone explain what's the point of having an aggressive looking car?

Why someone wants to have an aggressive looking car???

I think I'm getting too old for the M community, seriously
Visual impact. It looks like it means business and has the goods to back it up. I'm probably a little older than your average M community guy or gal so I don't think it's necessarily an age thing. Probably more of a personal mindset and choice.
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      07-08-2020, 11:19 AM   #4509
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Not at all. I realize that and therein lies my point. I'm sure you haven't read all of my contributions in this thread and trying to repeat myself would be painstaking. It's a rather lengthy thread and there are a lot of pages. In a nutshell, the demand isn't there on behalf of the public. Even in countries like Sweden a bunch of government influence is required to get BEV take rates into the 40% range. Here in America it just won't happen that way.......at least not for a very, very long time, hence why 97% of cars on the road are ICE's. This country sells 3 million trucks a year across all manufacturers. BEV's are an afterthought for most people. If they can't outsell trucks, they have a really long road ahead.
I get that fully. You're right, I haven't read the entire thread. Just the last few pages. I'm new here.

It also doesn't help that instead of embracing renewable energy our president pushes "clean coal," and positions in our government are run by oil execs that have a vested interest in keeping combustion on the road.

I know renewable energy isn't exactly the same thing but to me they kind of go hand in hand.
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      07-08-2020, 11:24 AM   #4510
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Originally Posted by VehementCrom View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
Not at all. I realize that and therein lies my point. I'm sure you haven't read all of my contributions in this thread and trying to repeat myself would be painstaking. It's a rather lengthy thread and there are a lot of pages. In a nutshell, the demand isn't there on behalf of the public. Even in countries like Sweden a bunch of government influence is required to get BEV take rates into the 40% range. Here in America it just won't happen that way.......at least not for a very, very long time, hence why 97% of cars on the road are ICE's. This country sells 3 million trucks a year across all manufacturers. BEV's are an afterthought for most people. If they can't outsell trucks, they have a really long road ahead.
I get that fully. You're right, I haven't read the entire thread. Just the last few pages. I'm new here.

It also doesn't help that instead of embracing renewable energy our president pushes "clean coal," and positions in our government are run by oil execs that have a vested interest in keeping combustion on the road.
Without making it political, even before him the interest was low. If you're going to blame him, you might as well blame everybody that came before him because all of them had an interest/investment in coal/oil even if they championed for economical/environmental change in public. EV's have been around a really long time. Tesla made EV's cool for people with money, but they aren't cool enough to tap into the psyches and pocketbooks of most Americans.

I remember when people were saying the hydrid would end it for the full ICE car. We see how well that materialized.


I know Gruss will venture in with spreadsheets and projections, but a company projection and the reality can, and often do, vary.
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