[afadeev]

Originally Posted by Kiwi

People are not waiting for larger batteries as patrol cars and trucks are back big time. BMW might as well close up their factory until oil if ever gets back up to its crazy price of $126.

This is a case of an opinion unsubstantiated by data.

YTD, EV sales in the US stand at 14,172 vs. 13,008 for the first two months of 2015. While the oil price has fallen about 70% Y/Y, EV sales are up 9%. Not bad at all.

Originally Posted by Kiwi

If you think battery cars will keep running free on roads without paying their share of roading tax you are mistaken.

This is an entirely different subject altogether.
US federal road construction and repair budget is indeed funded by the tax on gasoline sales. In that sense, EVs get a free ride without having to contribute to road maintenance. Sooner or later, this will come to an end, but this consideration is hardly effecting EV sales in 2016.

Originally Posted by Kiwi

The ones who leased their i3's will be a lot better off financially than those who purchased the i3 out right.

May be, may be not.
You never explained why you feel this way, or what this has to do with oil prices.

Originally Posted by Kiwi

I'm not trying to run down the i3 or BMW but we are in a totally different world now with the oil price and you should know now never be the first to move on buying anything new like the i3.

EV sales do not substantiate your fears for EV market.
While some people are motivated to enter EV market based on modeling the relative cost of travel on electricity vs. gasoline, a far larger proportion of EV owners care about the environment, projecting the "green" image to their friends, or trying out new cool gadget like EV cars. Or all of the above. For that segment of the population, the cost of gasoline is a minor consideration.

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[hotrod182]

Originally Posted by afadeev

This is a case of an opinion unsubstantiated by data.

YTD, EV sales in the US stand at 14,172 vs. 13,008 for the first two months of 2015. While the oil price has fallen about 70% Y/Y, EV sales are up 9%. Not bad at all.




This is an entirely different subject altogether.
US federal road construction and repair budget is indeed funded by the tax on gasoline sales. In that sense, EVs get a free ride without having to contribute to road maintenance. Sooner or later, this will come to an end, but this consideration is hardly effecting EV sales in 2016.



May be, may be not.
You never explained why you feel this way, or what this has to do with oil prices.



EV sales do not substantiate your fears for EV market.
While some people are motivated to enter EV market based on modeling the relative cost of travel on electricity vs. gasoline, a far larger proportion of EV owners care about the environment, projecting the "green" image to their friends, or trying out new cool gadget like EV cars. Or all of the above. For that segment of the population, the cost of gasoline is a minor consideration.

a

Gas tax revenue is down because vehicle MPG averages have improved over 25% in the last 10yrs. A 25% reduction is huge. The 1% of the vehicle population that EVs represent is still insignificant.

[afadeev]

Well, well, well, we have a new twist in the tale.

1Q'16 i3 sales (BEV+REX, down 64% from a year ago) fell below those of X5 40e (aka X5 plug-in):
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

If sales drop below those of 330e later this year (330e just hit the market in late March), it wont be good for i3's future.

a

[-c-]

Originally Posted by afadeev

Well, well, well, we have a new twist in the tale.

1Q'16 i3 sales (BEV+REX, down 64% from a year ago) fell below those of X5 40e (aka X5 plug-in):
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

If sales drop below those of 330e later this year (330e just hit the market in late March), it wont be good for i3's future.

a

Or it will cause a massive rethink in what BMW believes customers want and retool the i3 into something much more appealing to the masses.

[ORIGIN M.]

Originally Posted by Kiwi

Their should be more tax on gas.

An i3 or any battery car should be taxed on distance traveled for using the roads. Their should be no subsidised free ride for anyone. Tax is going to happen and I give it 5 years.

You are missing the point. If we don't go Electric ASAP we will be screwed.

Use tax on EV's is not answer. Tax the crap out of the ICEers !!!!

[afadeev]

i3 sales recovered in April (more i3s sold in April than Jan-March!), catching upto X5e sales levels for the year:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

In 2015, i3 finished as #4 on EV sales list (behind Model S, Leaf and Volt).

In 2016, there is now Model X and For Fusion Energi and C-max Energi that are ahead of i3 in sales. At least 2 out of those 3 are likely to stay ahead throughout the year.

The wild card is the i3v2 - will the new 33 KWh version of i3 depress sales for the old model until the new one arrives?
Accelerate sales for both?

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[winnerwinnerckndinner]

No big deal. According to the Munro report, the i3 was meant to be made as a low volume and profitable model. The cost of building an i3 is substantially lower than a traditional car.

http://leandesign.com/bmw/

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by winnerwinnerckndinner

No big deal. According to the Munro report, the i3 was meant to be made as a low volume and profitable model. The cost of building an i3 is substantially lower than a traditional car.

It's a nice video, and I just re-watched it.

They don't say that the cost of CF body-on-frame i3 is lower than a traditional car. Quiet the opposite - unibodies are cheaper, but require volume to amortize higher tooling costs.

BMW's return to (CF) body-on-frame for i3 allows them to make money on the car at lower production volume (10-30K/year). Above those levels, they would have been better off with unibody approach, which is what they speculate i5 will be.

Either way, it's good news that BMW is making money on a low-production i3.
Especially now, that sales are anemic.

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[afadeev]

Well, i3 just had the second best monthly sales total ... ever!
1,479 units delivered to the dealers' inventory, more than 2x of any previous month this year.

The new larger battery (33 kWh) i3 hasn't hit the US market yet, so BMW NA must be clearing its inventory lots by offering magnificent dealer level discounts.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by afadeev

i3 sales recovered in April (more i3s sold in April than Jan-March!), catching upto X5e sales levels for the year

Well, here is an interesting development - while i3 sales in the US are slowly recovering from sluggish 1H'16 (second 1+K/month in August, right after July), they are still down YTD vs. 2015.

Now there is a report that BMW's global sales of plug-in hybrids (aka iPerformance sub-brand) are exceeding those of the full-blown EVs (aka i-cars):

• BMW iPerformance – 17,809
• BMW i – 16,855

http://insideevs.com/bmw-sells-nearl...ds-i3i8-sales/

a

[tommolog]

Expect September sales to be dismal. After blowing out the remaining 2016 inventory with great leasing deals there was practically no inventory; the lowest since the car launched in 2014. 2017 models are starting to trickle into dealerships, but September sales are going to be brutally low.

[JasH]

USA does not equate to the world. USA sales do not equate to global sales.

Electric cars have an uphill battle in USA against many other countries, such as UK. Because petrol is cheap in USA, and travel distances are greater. The i3 is far better suited to the UK (and similar European countries) as a result, and is doing very well here.

Replacing my Landcruiser with an i3 has saved a fortune in fuel and running costs for me.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by JasH

USA does not equate to the world. USA sales do not equate to global sales.

Electric cars have an uphill battle in USA against many other countries, such as UK. Because petrol is cheap in USA, and travel distances are greater. The i3 is far better suited to the UK (and similar European countries) as a result, and is doing very well here.

Replacing my Landcruiser with an i3 has saved a fortune in fuel and running costs for me.

And why Chevrolet developed the 238-mile Bolt. Perfect for the USA. Less expensive than the i3, better performance, and no carbon fiber to be found anywhere. Amazing.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by JasH

USA does not equate to the world. USA sales do not equate to global sales.

Clearly.
No-one suggested otherwise, but we are glad you figured it out.

Originally Posted by JasH

Electric cars have an uphill battle in USA against many other countries, such as UK. Because petrol is cheap in USA, and travel distances are greater. The i3 is far better suited to the UK (and similar European countries) as a result, and is doing very well here.

It all depends on your personal commuting requirements.
You will find very few Americans commuting coast-to-coast in any car, i3 or otherwise, so the potential to drive for thousands of miles is rarely realized.

As far as cost of gas, it's a consideration, but you also have to look at the cost of electricity. It's ~10-12 cents/KWh in most parts of the US, while electricity prices in UK and Europe are typically 50-300% higher:
https://www.ovoenergy.com/guides/ene...rices-kwh.html

Originally Posted by JasH

Replacing my Landcruiser with an i3 has saved a fortune in fuel and running costs for me.

Indeed.
Congrats!

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[afadeev]

Originally Posted by tommolog

Expect September sales to be dismal. After blowing out the remaining 2016 inventory with great leasing deals there was practically no inventory; the lowest since the car launched in 2014. 2017 models are starting to trickle into dealerships, but September sales are going to be brutally low.

Indeed, and the September i3 sales drought has shifted into October.
Between Sep and Oct, there were more X5e sold in the US then i3's.

On top of that, all of October somehow brought big drop in EV sales for all brands, including Tesla. From the monthly US EV sales of ~17K, October sales crashed to ~11K, or down 45%. Go figure.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

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[JasH]

Sarky git aren't you?

[afadeev]

November is over, and i3 sales recovered to hist the average mark for the year (620/month YTD vs. 629 in November). If Dec #s are similar, it will be a tight race for the #6 slot in EV sales between i3 and Ford C-max (did Ford purposely pick a name that sounds like a sanitary product?)

Either way, the best i3 can accomplish in 2016 is finish sixth with ~7.5-8K sales, vs. 11K in 2015.

Perhaps that's why there are now rumors of a major redesign for MY18 (or a new model altogether?) that would include larger battery and range, as well as more conventional exterior design:
http://www.bmwblog.com/2016/11/27/ru...tric-car-2017/

... and i3S performance model with better handling and more HP/torque:
http://www.bmwblog.com/2016/11/29/re...ormance-model/

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[afadeev]

End of year update:
i3 US sales closed out 2016 seventh (7th) among all EVs at 7,625 vehicles, 31% down from 2015 (11,024 vehicles sold).

EV US sales overall were up 37% for the year, 159,139 vs. 116,099 in 2015.

Not a good year for i3 sales, at all.

[afadeev]

OK, so how are i3 sales doing in the new 2017 year?

As a refresher, i3 came in #7 in EV sales in its first year of existence
2014 : #7 among EVs in the US, selling an average of 762 cars per month.
2015 : #4 among EVs in the US, selling an average of 919 cars per month.
2016 : #7 among EVs in the US, selling an average of 635 cars per month.
2017 : #10 so far, 700 cars sold Jan + Feb, average of 350 cars per month.

Not so good.
BTW, i8 sales are tanking as well.

EV industry sales, overall, are up 62% Y/Y for the first two months of 2017.
So it's not the buyers, it's the competition that is devouring i3/i8 sales.

There are some (rumored) extenuating circumstances, with i3 dealer supply, supposedly, down to <1K vehicles in December and January. It's hard to sell cars you don't have in the inventory. On the other hand, every dealer I checked with when I was shopping for a new i3 in January only carried over-bloated models with REX and every other possible option, pushing the price into ~$60+K range. I did not find a single car on the lots within 150 mile radius of me that I liked, and thus had special ordered by MY'17 i3 BEV (still on the boat).

Either BMW finds a way to lower the i3 price significantly, or increase the range by at least 2x (rumored +30 in 10/17 is way too little), or the annual 2017 i3 sales will be the lowest on record.


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[Kiwi]

Originally Posted by afadeev

OK, so how are i3 sales doing in the new 2017 year?

As a refresher, i3 came in #7 in EV sales in its first year of existence
2014 : #7 among EVs in the US, selling an average of 762 cars per month.
2015 : #4 among EVs in the US, selling an average of 919 cars per month.
2016 : #7 among EVs in the US, selling an average of 635 cars per month.
2017 : #10 so far, 700 cars sold Jan + Feb, average of 350 cars per month.

Not so good.
BTW, i8 sales are tanking as well.

EV industry sales, overall, are up 62% Y/Y for the first two months of 2017.
So it's not the buyers, it's the competition that is devouring i3/i8 sales.

There are some (rumored) extenuating circumstances, with i3 dealer supply, supposedly, down to <1K vehicles in December and January. It's hard to sell cars you don't have in the inventory. On the other hand, every dealer I checked with when I was shopping for a new i3 in January only carried over-bloated models with REX and every other possible option, pushing the price into ~$60+K range. I did not find a single car on the lots within 150 mile radius of me that I liked, and thus had special ordered by MY'17 i3 BEV (still on the boat).

Either BMW finds a way to lower the i3 price significantly, or increase the range by at least 2x (rumored +30 in 10/17 is way too little), or the annual 2017 i3 sales will be the lowest on record.


a

What I have noticed some are getting sick of being told you must buy battery. This is turning buyers off and they are staying with petrol or diesel.
I look at my plugin purchase as enjoying new technology and saving a few dollars on petrol as a bonus. I never run down other forms vehicle transport.
We were told oil is running out only to find their are huge reserves of oil. America produces 70% of it's own oil now and has gas supplies which will never run out.
BMW is talking up the updated i3 coming at the end of this year as a more sporty i3 with a lot better battery range.

[Efthreeoh]

The Chevrolet Bolt has been on sale for 3 months now in just a few select areas of the US. Here are the sales figures as reported by GoodCarBadCar.com:

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by Kiwi

What I have noticed some are getting sick of being told you must buy battery. This is turning buyers off and they are staying with petrol or diesel.

The hypothesis is not supported by data.

EV sales in the for the first two (2) months of the year are up 62% Y/Y, as stated in my previous post. Specifically,
Jan+Feb sales:
2014 12,710
2015 13,008
2016 13,984
2017 22,676

People in the US are absolutely buying a LOT more EVs, just not of the i3/i8 variety.

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