[Luminor513]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

People said the same thing in the late 90's and projected that the Toyota Prius was going to end the ICE. It never materialized the way it was projected. There is a whole class of people (…e.g..financially speaking) that comprise a large portion of the car buying public who are very, very unlikely to go EV. It doesn't make financial or economical sense for them. Most aren't even willing to buy a hybrid!

The high end market and the buyers who shop within that market tend to dabble with EV's; TESLA made EV's "cool." Even still, drive through your lower middle class neighborhoods and you do not see EV's and you do not see a lot of hybrids. You see ICE's, many that are comparable in price to some of the entry level hybrids and EV's. People do not trust EV's in general.

All while people pushed the EV narrative, Ford was still selling nearly a million ICE trucks a year. An EV truck is cool in concept. People with money to burn will give them a try, but it will take a culture shift across the entire U.S. before the EV's even have a chance of outpacing the ICE. We'll revisit this a decade or more from now and I'll be saying, "I told ya' so!"

It will certainly be interesting to see which one of us is right, but I agree with you about the lower/middle class. EV's and hybrids are still too expensive. The real paradigm shift will be when there are affordable EV options for the masses. How long it takes to get to that point, is the million dollar question. But the auto industry will get there.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Luminor513

It will certainly be interesting to see which one of us is right, but I agree with you about the lower/middle class. EV's and hybrids are still too expensive. The real paradigm shift will be when there are affordable EV options for the masses. How long it takes to get to that point, is the million dollar question. But the auto industry will get there.

If EV mileage ranges were easily in the +/- 500 range (…while running A/C, etc.), cost +/- $27-30k, charge times were +/- an hour at your local charger [anywhere] and the charging stations were on every other corner [near every major thoroughfare], then we might see some improved trust amongst the population as a whole…….and in record time. It's the trust that needs to be built in order for EV's to overtake the ICE.

When we revisit this topic in 2033, it's going to be interesting indeed.

[Paladin1]

On a practical note, BMW isn't having a problem selling $80k+ cars right now. And every major (and a few startup) manufacturers are busy cranking out all-electric models as we speak - many or most below that level. Technology is not a problem, and range is no longer a problem. And the problem isn't going to be selling EVs - which enterprise seems to be accelerating at an exponential rate starting now - the problem is going to be expanding the infrastructure, including the public electric grid, to match the potential demand. And that's not going to happen overnight, although demand will accelerate that too. That's the limiter on the magical conversion to electric transportation, and likely to be the main source of frustration in the next decade.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Paladin1

On a practical note, BMW isn't having a problem selling $80k+ cars right now. And every major (and a few startup) manufacturers are busy cranking out all-electric models as we speak - many or most below that level. Technology is not a problem, and range is no longer a problem. And the problem isn't going to be selling EVs - which enterprise seems to be accelerating at an exponential rate starting now - the problem is going to be expanding the infrastructure, including the public electric grid, to match the potential demand. And that's not going to happen overnight, although demand will accelerate that too. That's the limiter on the magical conversion to electric transportation, and likely to be the main source of frustration in the next decade.

Range is absolutely a factor…….a major factor. Talk to real people rather than forum nerds, enthusiasts and those with the capital to afford multiple cars, and range anxiety will creep into the conversation. Even those with money have offloaded their TESLA's because of misrepresented range figures (…their words). Not everybody has the option to charge at work, hang around the super chargers and/or afford solar panels to offset the increased electricity costs.

I remember running into a Fiat owner who was stuck at a gas station in Irvine (…oh, the irony!) because he didn't have the charge to make it home after beginning from a full charge. He was extremely frustrated that his A/C, conversation via Bluetooth, etc. sapped his mileage significantly enough that he couldn't even make it home. Thankfully he had AAA.

[sor]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

If EV mileage ranges were easily in the +/- 500 range (…while running A/C, etc.), cost +/- $27-30k, charge times were +/- an hour at your local charger [anywhere] and the charging stations were on every other corner [near every major thoroughfare], then we might see some improved trust amongst the population as a whole…….and in record time. It's the trust that needs to be built in order for EV's to overtake the ICE.

When we revisit this topic in 2033, it's going to be interesting indeed.

I think a lot of perspective changes once you actually own an EV. You begin to realize you don't necessarily need 500 miles of range in one go, for example. You find that a 20 minute stop on a freeway trip is actually what you were doing for short stops anyway, etc.

I don't think we will need as many convenience stores/fuel stations as EVs rise, at least not in suburban areas where people just recharge at home. Charging is only needed in urban parking areas, apartments, and along road trip corridors. Certainly not on every corner. It will be weird to see many of them go away or change to other kinds of stores.

I do think there needs to be more affordable EVs, and more variety. We are on the cusp though, When I drive around town and see dozens of $40k-50k Toyotas, Hondas, Kias, etc I think several EVs on the market are already in this range and affordable to the masses.

[Paladin1]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Range is absolutely a factor…….a major factor. Talk to real people rather than forum nerds, enthusiasts and those with the capital to afford multiple cars, and range anxiety will creep into the conversation. Even those with money have offloaded their TESLA's because of misrepresented range figures (…their words). Not everybody has the option to charge at work, hang around the super chargers and/or afford solar panels to offset the increased electricity costs.

I remember running into a Fiat owner who was stuck at a gas station in Irvine (…oh, the irony!) because he didn't have the charge to make it home after beginning from a full charge. He was extremely frustrated that his A/C, conversation via Bluetooth, etc. sapped his mileage significantly enough that he couldn't even make it home. Thankfully he had AAA.

Actual range is no longer a problem, the perception that it is, is in fact still a barrier, but rapidly diminishing - 200-300 miles appears to be the breakpoint. The average daily drive for Americans is less than 50 miles. For Europeans considerably less, varying by country. The car is the major mode of transportation for both. Over 90% of EV owners in the US have a garage; 70% in the EU. Cross-country trips by car to Wallyworld are a diminishing part of Americana, and rare in a year of driving for the majority of the public.

Individual anecdotes aside, public acceptance and knowledge of EVs is increasing at a pace that appears to match manufacturers' rollouts, and planned and present infrastructure expands daily, driven significantly by the realization that the cost of just getting to work is a growing and increasingly unpredictable part of the home and busiiness budget, and lowering prices, increasing availability, and improving technology on EVs will only accelerate that. I'm far from either an EV or a climate evangelist, but the transition from combustible fuel transportation to something more sustainable is apparent, and rapidly growing. Driven largely not by any green environmental factors, but by economics - the same thing that transitioned us from whale-oil to electric lighting.

[ScullyD]

Originally Posted by Paladin1

Actual range is no longer a problem, the perception that it is, is in fact still a barrier, but rapidly diminishing - 200-300 miles appears to be the breakpoint. The average daily drive for Americans is less than 50 miles. For Europeans considerably less, varying by country. The car is the major mode of transportation for both. Over 90% of EV owners in the US have a garage; 70% in the EU. Cross-country trips by car to Wallyworld are a diminishing part of Americana, and rare in a year of driving for the majority of the public.

Individual anecdotes aside, public acceptance and knowledge of EVs is increasing at a pace that appears to match manufacturers' rollouts, and planned and present infrastructure expands daily, driven significantly by the realization that the cost of just getting to work is a growing and increasingly unpredictable part of the home and busiiness budget, and lowering prices, increasing availability, and improving technology on EVs will only accelerate that. I'm far from either an EV or a climate evangelist, but the transition from combustible fuel transportation to something more sustainable is apparent, and rapidly growing. Driven largely not by any green environmental factors, but by economics - the same thing that transitioned us from whale-oil to electric lighting.

It's perception over reality. It's much more convenient to charge then go to get gas, just requires you use a tad bit of thought and planning. Once you are at 300+ mi, range is a non issue. I'll just say, I was the biggest petrolhead in the world (my friends can attest, I said I'd be the last personal alive to get an EV).

After getting the iX, I'll never owner a daily driver that isn't an EV. And I'm very excited for the first wave of EV sports cars.

[sor]

People overestimate the need for range, as though they are long hauling goods for a living with their cars.

I mean, 500 miles? You'd have to pay me to sit in a car for seven hours straight. 300+ miles is perfect, after four hours driving you can stop for a meal like you'd want to anyway and the car is ready to go when you're done.

In reality I find myself preferring to stop for 15-20 minutes every 2-3 hours, which works out great. Even in ICE cars I tend to do that.

[Sedan_Clan]

Well, I suppose we'll see who I wins this debate over the next decade.

My lady has a BMW 530e. She doesn't have a 220v charger (…although her new home is wired for it, I just need to install the outlet itself), so she plugs into a 110v outlet. To obtain a full charge it take anywhere from 8-10 hours; it'll be 3-4 with the 220v. What she saves at the pump reflects in the increased cost in her electricity bill. Her electricity bill has increased about $200 a month since she began plugging in. She does not have solar panels. Based on her real world use case it is almost a wash. Fortunately she can run on gas so it isn't super concerning, but she will not go EV.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by sor

People overestimate the need for range, as though they are long hauling goods for a living with their cars.

I mean, 500 miles? You'd have to pay me to sit in a car for seven hours straight. 300+ miles is perfect, after four hours driving you can stop for a meal like you'd want to anyway and the car is ready to go when you're done.

In reality I find myself preferring to stop for 15-20 minutes every 2-3 hours, which works out great. Even in ICE cars I tend to do that.

When you can get 400+ miles a tank out of most common cars, EV's need to at least match that comfortably before a cultural shift can happen in this country. Not everybody wants to have to "stop for a meal", or spend a few hours shopping, etc. Some people just want to get to their destinations…….and if everybody is driving EV's and everybody is stopping for meals, to shop, etc., that's A SHIT TON of charging stations (…and a massive infrastructure overhaul) to meet that need. We can't even run our residential A/C's continuously during the summer without blackout concerns. It's not going to happen soon. Not by any means.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Paladin1

The average daily drive for Americans is less than 50 miles.

That's an oversimplification. While the face value stat may be true, driving a continuous 50 miles and sitting in bumper to bumper traffic for 50 miles are two very different situations that have an impact on gas mileage/charge range and travel duration. Sitting in traffic for 50 miles in an EV is a range anxiety issue for people. People want convenience. ICE is convenient.

There is merit to the EV, but widespread acceptance is way, way off as I stated in a much earlier post. When you start seeing EV's dominating areas where the average income is low(er), that will be the sign that EV's have made significant progress.

[Paladin1]

Feels like that sometimes . But:

Convenience:



vs Convenience:



And an EV doesn't lose power sitting in traffic - just the power to operate A/C, heat, lights, which is minimal (even half-charged, a 62 kWh battery could yield 10 to 15 hours of heating in a car that’s stationary during a traffic jam). An ICE car, on the other hand, uses fuel to run heat and A/C as well (about 1/2 gallon/hour, and more in stop and go), or just to run the engine even without air/heat (although you could turn it off, but unlike an EV which "idles" at zero loss without accessories, you need to turn it on again to go, using fuel). If you're down to that last couple of gallons, wecome to range anxiety. With almost any modern battery sized EV, you'd need to sit in traffic a day or two - or three - to lose enough power not to run, and in slow moving traffic enough regen kicks in to keep the loss essentially to zero. As for cost, my ChargePoint on our electric plan fills up the tank from zero to 300 miles for about $7. Filling up my X5 to 300 miles with Premium where I live costs around $100.

[TXSchnee]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Well, I suppose we'll see who I wins this debate over the next decade.

My lady has a BMW 530e. She doesn't have a 220v charger (…although her new home is wired for it, I just need to install the outlet itself), so she plugs into a 110v outlet. To obtain a full charge it take anywhere from 8-10 hours; it'll be 3-4 with the 220v. What she saves at the pump reflects in the increased cost in her electricity bill. Her electricity bill has increased about $200 a month since she began plugging in. She does not have solar panels. Based on her real world use case it is almost a wash. Fortunately she can run on gas so it isn't super concerning, but she will not go EV.

I have a Cayenne E Hybrid, it also has an on board 7.2kW charger, something BMW does not offer on their PHEVs, it takes a little over 2 hours to charge full, and in TX it has added less than $20/month to my electric bill (this is averaged over nearly 2 years) is she charging during peak hours? How is her bill so high? I am averaging 30mpg and around 600 miles per tank of gas, fill up every 2ish weeks. Next vehicle will be a full BEV.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by TXSchnee

I have a Cayenne E Hybrid, it also has an on board 7.2kW charger, something BMW does not offer on their PHEVs, it takes a little over 2 hours to charge full, and in TX it has added less than $20/month to my electric bill (this is averaged over nearly 2 years) is she charging during peak hours? How is her bill so high? I am averaging 30mpg and around 600 miles per tank of gas, fill up every 2ish weeks. Next vehicle will be a full BEV.

She's an attorney that works normal "banker's hours." She arrives home around 5-6pm and plugs in. In many cases she has to go right back out to run her youngest athlete to practices here, there and everywhere. When she doesn't have to go anywhere, she plugs in and the car will tell her a full charge will be achieved the next day at 6am, for example. Again, this is on the 110v outlet.

Her electricity bill averaged about $180 monthly prior to starting to use the home charger a couple of months ago. Her bill has been $340-ish the last couple of months with the only change being the fact that she now plugs in whenever she's home. She will have owned the car for three years this coming March when her lease is up. She wanted to get something else, but she has decided to keep the 530e due to financial constraints (..e.g..paying for U.C. tuition for her oldest, more athletic requirements, new home tax bills, etc.).

She did notice a reduction at the pump. With the charging and her 14-mile round trip commute, she had visited the pump much less, but it's reflected in her electricity bill. Her 530e only has a 10-gallon gas tank.

P.S. This conversation makes me what to inquire with my sister how much her electricity bill changed once she bought her Prius hybrid 4 years ago. She's actually trying to get the new Toyota bZX4, but…..ADM!! ….and she's not about that life. Lol!

[TechCTU]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

She's an attorney that works normal "banker's hours." She arrives home around 5-6pm and plugs in. In many cases she has to go right back out to run her youngest athlete to practices here, there and everywhere. When she doesn't have to go anywhere, she plugs in and the car will tell her a full charge will be achieved the next day at 6am, for example. Again, this is on the 110v outlet.

Her electricity bill averaged about $180 monthly prior to starting to use the home charger a couple of months ago. Her bill has been $340-ish the last couple of months with the only change being the fact that she now plugs in whenever she's home. She will have owned the car for three years this coming March when her lease is up. She wanted to get something else, but she has decided to keep the 530e due to financial constraints (..e.g..paying for U.C. tuition for her oldest, more athletic requirements, new home tax bills, etc.).

She did notice a reduction at the pump. With the charging and her 14-mile round trip commute, she had visited the pump much less, but it's reflected in her electricity bill. Her 530e only has a 10-gallon gas tank.

P.S. This conversation makes me what to inquire with my sister how much her electricity bill changed once she bought her Prius hybrid 4 years ago. She's actually trying to get the new Toyota bZX4, but…..ADM!! ….and she's not about that life. Lol!

That seems like a huge jump in costs. I would suggest a sense monitor to nail down whats causing that jump. Unless the charger is drawing power when not in use it has to be something else going on. Either way the monitor will pay for itself with a bill that has doubled every month.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by TechCTU

That seems like a huge jump in costs. I would suggest a sense monitor to nail down whats causing that jump. Unless the charger is drawing power when not in use it has to be something else going on. Either way the monitor will pay for itself with a bill that has doubled every month.

It is significant, I agree. Her home is less than a year old and the electricity bill only changed after we began plugging in her vehicle. I'm thinking because it is actively charging most days for 10-12 hours at a time, that's the reason for the spike. Maybe the monthly monetary figure will decrease once I install the 220v outlet because charge time will be 3-4 hours max.

[Paladin1]

Originally Posted by TechCTU

That seems like a huge jump in costs. I would suggest a sense monitor to nail down whats causing that jump. Unless the charger is drawing power when not in use it has to be something else going on. Either way the monitor will pay for itself with a bill that has doubled every month.

Yep. Actually worth getting a wallbox like ChargePoint or JuiceBox to track where the electrons are going, and run off-peak if possible.

[Bird~Dawg]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

She's an attorney that works normal "banker's hours." She arrives home around 5-6pm and plugs in. In many cases she has to go right back out to run her youngest athlete to practices here, there and everywhere. When she doesn't have to go anywhere, she plugs in and the car will tell her a full charge will be achieved the next day at 6am, for example. Again, this is on the 110v outlet.

Her electricity bill averaged about $180 monthly prior to starting to use the home charger a couple of months ago. Her bill has been $340-ish the last couple of months with the only change being the fact that she now plugs in whenever she's home. She will have owned the car for three years this coming March when her lease is up. She wanted to get something else, but she has decided to keep the 530e due to financial constraints (..e.g..paying for U.C. tuition for her oldest, more athletic requirements, new home tax bills, etc.).

She did notice a reduction at the pump. With the charging and her 14-mile round trip commute, she had visited the pump much less, but it's reflected in her electricity bill. Her 530e only has a 10-gallon gas tank.

P.S. This conversation makes me what to inquire with my sister how much her electricity bill changed once she bought her Prius hybrid 4 years ago. She's actually trying to get the new Toyota bZX4, but…..ADM!! ….and she's not about that life. Lol!

What's her per kWh cost? Must be high. I have an X5 45e and I don't spend anywhere near that much on electricity. My off peak rate is 8.2 cents. The 530e has a 12kwh battery. If she averages 1.5 "fill-ups" per day, that's say 540 kWh per month. At 8.2 cents (my off peak rate) that's only $44.28 per month. At 17 cents (my peak rate) it would still only be $91.80. Either her electricity rates are really high, or something else started drawing power the past couple of months. Maybe the home A/C started kicking in.

[sor]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

When you can get 400+ miles a tank out of most common cars, EV's need to at least match that comfortably before a cultural shift can happen in this country. Not everybody wants to have to "stop for a meal", or spend a few hours shopping, etc. Some people just want to get to their destinations…….and if everybody is driving EV's and everybody is stopping for meals, to shop, etc., that's A SHIT TON of charging stations (…and a massive infrastructure overhaul) to meet that need. We can't even run our residential A/C's continuously during the summer without blackout concerns. It's not going to happen soon. Not by any means.

I've never had to stop and spend a few hours shopping, even going 1000 miles across the west.

I've posted this probably a dozen times already so I won't elaborate too much, but I did a back to back 800 mile drive, one way in an X3 and the other in an Audi e-tron, just drove naturally how I would normally, and the e-tron only caused one extra stop and the stops were only 5 minutes longer on average. My longest stop was 33 minutes, and the car was waiting on me because that was my meal stop.

It totally depends on your travel style, I agree. I just don't think most people prefer driving five hours or more in one go, thus don't need 500 miles of range. And I think most people who actually own EVs today will tell you they get along just fine on road trips.

We will definitely need more charging places like this on major routes. Not everywhere though.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by Paladin1

Yep. Actually worth getting a wallbox like ChargePoint or JuiceBox to track where the electrons are going, and run off-peak if possible.

I picked up BMW's WallBox from my BMW connect, so I'll install it once I set-up the 220v outlet.

Originally Posted by Bird~Dawg

What's her per kWh cost? Must be high. I have an X5 45e and I don't spend anywhere near that much on electricity. My off peak rate is 8.2 cents. The 530e has a 12kwh battery. If she averages 1.5 "fill-ups" per day, that's say 540 kWh per month. At 8.2 cents (my off peak rate) that's only $44.28 per month. At 17 cents (my peak rate) it would still only be $91.80. Either her electricity rates are really high, or something else started drawing power the past couple of months. Maybe the home A/C started kicking in.

I'm not sure, so I'll have to ask her. She has only used her A/C a handful of times over the last 10 months. She lives near the beach so there isn't a lot of need for A/C because of the cool air coming off of the water.

[Sedan_Clan]

It'll be interesting to see what happens after the 220v outlet install. I'll monitor it closely to document any changes in the bill.

[machop]

This reminds of early Apple days when iPhone/iPad first released. People making fun of it, and hard core Apple fans loved it. Then people realized how easy to use and they started gaining popularity. Apple today has about half smart phone market share. there are still lots of people who refuse to use Apple products.

I think EV market in 10 years will be similar to this, EV total percentage market share in sales probably will reach 30-40%, lots of people still drive ICE. Is 30% a success for EV, I think so.